Christine Lagarde for IMF Job

Laois_Man

Isn't it terribly coincidental how, just as the announcement of her candidacy for this position is coming, and France would like our support for her appointment, that Eamon Gilmore suddenly says France is showing a greater understanding of Ireland's position on corporation tax and the interest rate on our EU-IMF bailout? NOT!

In an ideal World, it would be great if we had a realistic candidate of our own. (Dukes, Honohan or whoever), but that's not realistic. Won't the Irish government just try to back the winner for brownie points instead of backing the person who is genuinely best for the job or best for us.

So what would people think of this woman getting the job - and should we support her appointment - even before we know if there are going to be better (friendlier) candidates and who they will be?

jmayo

Laois_Man wrote: »

Isn't it terribly coincidental how, just as the announcement of her candidacy for this position is coming, and France would like our support for her appointment, that Eamon Gilmore suddenly says France is showing a greater understanding of Ireland's position on corporation tax and the interest rate on our EU-IMF bailout? NOT!

In an ideal World, it would be great if we had a realistic candidate of our own. (Dukes, Honohan or whoever), but that's not realistic. Won't the Irish government just try to back the winner for brownie points instead of backing the person who is genuinely best for the job or best for us.

So what would people think of this woman getting the job - and should we support her appointment - even before we know if there are going to be better (friendlier) candidates and who they will be?

I hope to God she doesn't get it and that she and her little general get their ar**s spanked.

What is good for France and it's rulers is not good for us.
The last thing we want is someone from the sarkozy/merkel camp getting their hands on this.

later12

I have no problems with Lagarde herself, she seems like an intelligent finance minister but I would much prefer to see this post go to Axel Weber. I think his bowing out of the ECB and the Bundesbank to go into private enterprise was a loss to the management of the European debt crisis. As far as I know he has not yet made any public comments on his candidacy, but I hope he would consider running.

Ordinarily I would like to see somebody from the emerging economies have a run at the IMF leadership, it certainly is the time for a non-European to take the reins. However, given the situation in Europe, it is pretty unlikely that this will be allowed happen.

beeftotheheels

One should also bear in mind that at the moment her loyalty is to France. She is the French Minister of Finance. When she was chairperson of Baker Mckenzie her loyalty was to that law firm, and if she gets the top job in the IMF then her loyalty will be to that organization.

Her current views on our CT rate, which I personally disagree with, are the views of the French Finance Minister and not necessarily idealogical views of the woman so I wouldn't take issue with them over supporting her candidature.

mgmt

beeftotheheels wrote: »

One should also bear in mind that at the moment her loyalty is to France. She is the French Minister of Finance. When she was chairperson of Baker Mckenzie her loyalty was to that law firm, and if she gets the top job in the IMF then her loyalty will be to that organization.

It is naive to think she will play it fair in the IMF. She will not lose her political baggage that easily.

Scofflaw

mgmt wrote: »

It is naive to think she will play it fair in the IMF. She will not lose her political baggage that easily.

I'm going to make a general point that this sort of use of "naive" is very much out of order. It's essentially a way of trivialising the argument of another poster as the ramblings of a poor innocent fool who doesn't know any better. The implicit assumption of superior wisdom on the part of the user of the term is almost invariably badly misplaced.

moderately,
Scofflaw

aftermn

beeftotheheels wrote: »

One should also bear in mind that at the moment her loyalty is to France. She is the French Minister of Finance. When she was chairperson of Baker Mckenzie her loyalty was to that law firm, and if she gets the top job in the IMF then her loyalty will be to that organization.

Her current views on our CT rate, which I personally disagree with, are the views of the French Finance Minister and not necessarily idealogical views of the woman so I wouldn't take issue with them over supporting her candidature.

With the recent implicit criticism of the EU position in relation to the debt crisis by the IMF, would her position be credible. She would either have to change the current IMF position or do an about face on the EU position she currently holds (albeit that as a staffer).

Laois_Man

beeftotheheels wrote: »

One should also bear in mind that at the moment her loyalty is to France. She is the French Minister of Finance. When she was chairperson of Baker Mckenzie her loyalty was to that law firm, and if she gets the top job in the IMF then her loyalty will be to that organization.

Her current views on our CT rate, which I personally disagree with, are the views of the French Finance Minister and not necessarily idealogical views of the woman so I wouldn't take issue with them over supporting her candidature.

Except the position of her friends in France, and the position she see's as a position suitable for the IMF to adopt, are not, and will not always be mutually exclusive. And even if they are close positions, or if she's comes to an issue with an open mind, she could and perhaps would be swayed by those friendships...consciously or subconsciously!

later12

Enda Kenny has offered his support to a European becoming head of the International Monetary fund. Although he did not expressly endorse Lagarde's candidacy for the role, he suggested that she had a familiarity with Ireland's recovery program. Presumably this means that in the absence of a better candidate, Ireland may be likely to extend its support to Ms Lagarde.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0525/economy.html

He also said he would like to see a European in charge of the International Monetary Fund. Asked about Government support for Christine Lagarde in her bid to be head of the IMF, Mr Kenny said she has an understanding of the challenges facing Ireland and the European Union.
Ms Lagarde also knows what Ireland is doing to respond to those challenges, he said.
Mr Kenny said that Ireland's voting rights in respect of the IMF director's position amounts to around 0.5%.
Asked about the French position towards Ireland on the bailout arrangements, Mr Kenny said the position of the French government is known and understood.

Permabear

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later12

Nobody would say that a non European has been 'ruled out'. The Eurozone debt crisis is a major ongoing event in what is the worlds most biggest and significant monetary bloc; there is simply a rationale there in appointing an individual closely familiar with that crisis to the head of the fund this time around. I don't think anybody is suggesting that the European tradition is helpful more generally.

Anyway, Michael Noonan has officially rowed in behind Lagarde, it would seem

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0525/imf.html

Mr Noonan was speaking after a 45 minute meeting with the French finance minister in Paris.
'In the four months that I've known Christine Lagarde I think she is an excellent candidate who has all the capabilities of being head of the IMF,' he said.
Stressing that the meeting was not a negotiation on Ireland's corporate tax rate and the interest rate on our rescue package, Mr Noonan said he was sure Ms Lagarde would 'reflect' on the Government's message that the corporate tax rate was a key element in Ireland returning to growth.

Permabear

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beeftotheheels

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The fact that the holders of the majority of the votes would be expected to back a European candidate does not mean that anyone has been ruled out. It simply means that the majority of the votes would be expected to back a European candidate, everything else being equal (unlikely as that may be).

The dissent at this time may reduce the likelihood that the majority of the votes will be expected to back a European candidate next time around. Dissent and democracy can have aims beyond the short term.

beeftotheheels

Laois_Man wrote: »

Except the position of her friends in France, and the position she see's as a position suitable for the IMF to adopt, are not, and will not always be mutually exclusive. And even if they are close positions, or if she's comes to an issue with an open mind, she could and perhaps would be swayed by those friendships...consciously or subconsciously!

The IMF is obliged to help us recover, that is the only way for them to recover their funds.

France has no such obligation. While to my mind it would be sensible for France to support our recovery, it is undoubtedly possible to argue that France's best interests could be served by supporting moral hazard arguments over Ireland's ability to return to growth.

This position is untenable when it comes to the IMF so if she were to head that body she could not make that argument.

later12

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Just to clarify that, Merkel said that at present there are good reasons for someone from Europe taking the position, that is not the same thing as saying that a non-European could not. This is not a ruling out of anything, the decision of who runs the IMF will be made collectively. Together the powerhouses of Europe: France, Germany and the United Kingdom only have a combined voting power of about 14%.

It is entirely possible that a candidate from the emerging economies could have been chosen this time, but the real reasons why that prospect is unlikely is because (a) of the European crisis, and due to many Europeans and non-Europeans being concerned about the fallout on a global level and (b) because there is actually no credible candidate from these economies with the stature and the breadth of experience of the likes of Axel Weber or Christine Lagarde.

thebman

A conspiracy theorist would suggest that we have already negotiated a drop in interest rates in exchange for our support with this French Minister.

We are certainly hoping that her position changes drastically when/if she takes the top spot at the IMF.

I would imagine her views on Ireland would change drastically for another reason. To distance herself from French government policy to show that start the role with a clean sheet and remove any rumors/controversy about this issue.

leeroybrown

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The Taoiseach and Government act for Ireland not for the international community and while it's laudable to act purely in the greater good, it's not what I demand from them. I demand that they act in the best short-, medium- and long-term interests of Ireland and if that means supporting European candidacy then so be it.

later12

Just to clarify two things here, Ireland has a 0.5% voting strength, it is extremely unlikely that the margin will be this tight and that Michael Noonan's vote will be significant.

Secondly, I am not sure why there is a preoccupation with the stance of the next IMF chief on Ireland's interest rate reduction. It is already pretty widely understood that the IMF have favoured lower interest rates: clearly the IMF's opinion is not a major determinant of our EFSF and EFSM interest payments. As it is, there is no vocal issue with the terms nor the rate of the IMF MoU.

We really should be more concerned about our Eurozone counterparts than the IMF if our focus is on the European rate. Especially seeing as our voting strength for the IMF is so low anyway.

leeroybrown

While the IMF clearly aren't the major determinant of our interest rates, etc, having an IMF Chief who promotes policies more favourable to us is a positive thing. An IMF Chief whose views more closely aligned with the large EU states, the ECB and the EFSF would almost certainly strengthen certain stances against us and would definitely be a negative for Ireland.

thebman

later10 wrote: »

Just to clarify two things here, Ireland has a 0.5% voting strength, it is extremely unlikely that the margin will be this tight and that Michael Noonan's vote will be significant.

Secondly, I am not sure why there is a preoccupation with the stance of the next IMF chief on Ireland's interest rate reduction. It is already pretty widely understood that the IMF have favoured lower interest rates: clearly the IMF's opinion is not a major determinant of our EFSF and EFSM interest payments. As it is, there is no vocal issue with the terms nor the rate of the IMF MoU.

We really should be more concerned about our Eurozone counterparts than the IMF if our focus is on the European rate. Especially seeing as our voting strength for the IMF is so low anyway.

I think people are concerned that she will change the IMF's position on it and remove pressure from the Eurozone to change their minds on the issue.

later12

thebman wrote: »

I think people are concerned that she will change the IMF's position on it and remove pressure from the Eurozone to change their minds on the issue.

leeroybrown wrote: »

While the IMF clearly aren't the major determinant of our interest rates, etc, having an IMF Chief who promotes policies more favourable to us is a positive thing. An IMF Chief whose views more closely aligned with the large EU states, the ECB and the EFSF would almost certainly strengthen certain stances against us and would definitely be a negative for Ireland.

I'm afraid our experience hasn't really borne out these perceptions.

DSK, also a former French politician, was perceived to be sympathetic to Irish difficulties; he would be on the opposite side of the economic spectrum to Lagarde, and yet his opinions, or those of the IMF more generally were overruled or rejected by the Eurozone and the EU.

So why should Lagarde's views on European policy (of which we know little) weigh more heavily across Europe than those of her predecessor?

thebman

later10 wrote: »

I'm afraid our experience hasn't really borne out these perceptions.

DSK, also a former French politician, was perceived to be sympathetic to Irish difficulties; he would be on the opposite side of the economic spectrum to Lagarde, and yet his opinions, or those of the IMF more generally were overruled or rejected by the Eurozone and the EU.

So why should Lagarde's views on European policy (of which we know little) weigh more heavily across Europe than those of her predecessor?

Its not that it would weigh more heavily but weigh the same.

What would be worse for Ireland is if the IMF reversed its position on it under new leadership or just stopped mentioning it.

Then it would be easier for media elsewhere to paint us as the ungrateful Irish who got a generous bail out and are still asking for more.

leeroybrown

later10 wrote: »

So why should Lagarde's views on European policy (of which we know little) weigh more heavily across Europe than those of her predecessor?

I don't think that they would weigh any more heavily but if those views happened to align far more closely with the EU/Eurozone position then we would be left with no voice of any note in our corner. Perhaps it wouldn't make a huge difference but I'd still like to have the IMF trying to persuade the EU/Eurozone to adopt a more favourable position than them just rubber stamping whatever position is put forward.

If the government endorsing Lagarde on the basis of toeing the line and currying favour with France/Germany is the more favourable option for Ireland then I'm all for that too.

later12

Yes on reflection I think both of those posts have a valid point.

It probably isn't a particularly relevant issue to do with the EU interest rates, but it might have an indirect effect certainly, and it is true to say that in situations like this where you have these major blocs deciding our fate, dissenting voices are always more enlightening than unanimous agreement.

beeftotheheels

...and she has it...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/28/imf-lagarde-greece-idUSP6E7HO00S20110628

later12

Oh goodness, an IMF chief who uses twitter. I hope she is not too loose with the truth.

Le Parisen suggests that the favourites to succeed Lagarde are the old school and right wing Francois Baroin, the budget minister who is very close to Sarkozy, or the more flexible Valérie Pécresse, who is probably the most European minded of the prospective candidates and I daresay could lend a slightly more open ear towards Ireland.

Not that Napoleon's horse ever made a huge difference to Napoleon's battles.

later12

Update

Francois Baroin is the new finance minister
http://www.france24.com/en/20110629-baroin-touted-replace-lagarde-finance-chief-imf

Unfortunately the man speaks little to no English, nor any other European language, and comes to the table of European finance ministers without any immediately apparent strengths. In fact the only European relationship to speak of was the German finance minister, Schauble, dismissing Baroin's comments on the French position a few weeks back.

Inverse to the power of one!

The Mystery of Lagarde
OK, so it’s Christine Lagarde for the IMF. I wish her luck. And I wish we had any idea how well she’ll do the job.

It’s not as if she’s especially enigmatic: in addition to being smart, by all accounts she’s serious, responsible, and judicious. But that, of course, is what worries me.

For we’re living in an era in which, for the time being, conventional prudence is folly, conventional virtue is vice. The things Very Serious People want to do — slash deficits right away, “normalize” interest rates, worry about inflation — are exactly the kind of things that could turn the slump of 2008-? into decades of stagnation.

Under Strauss-Kahn, the IMF was staking out a position as the least dogmatic, most open-minded of the major international organizations. That’s not saying too much, but it was much better than the madmen in authority at the OECD or the BIS.

So the question is, will the IMF become more sensible under Lagarde? For the sake of the world economy, let’s hope not.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/28/the-mystery-of-lagarde/

Don't take me for a Krugman fan or anything...but I fear he's right.

Lagarde is yet another of these non-innovative Eurocrats without the imagination to do anything other then kick the can down the road. Europe's lack of leadership and decisiveness have only led us to here and far worse places to come, they fail to succeed time and time again.

Now we get to have world fiscal policy dragged in to the mire as well. Ain't gonna be pretty and I hope I'm wrong, I really don't want to have to turn in to an American Gold-bug!

Callan57

later10 wrote: »

Oh goodness, an IMF chief who uses twitter. I hope she is not too loose with the truth.

Le Parisen suggests that the favourites to succeed Lagarde are the old school and right wing Francois Baroin, the budget minister who is very close to Sarkozy, or the more flexible Valérie Pécresse, who is probably the most European minded of the prospective candidates and I daresay could lend a slightly more open ear towards Ireland.

Not that Napoleon's horse ever made a huge difference to Napoleon's battles.

Oh my the knife went in sharpish there ... and I just happen to be reading a book about Napoleon at the moment