MTC summer 2011 forecast

M.T. Cranium

Yesterday, as promised, I included the following summer outlook in the daily forecast package.

Summer outlook -- In general, expect a reasonably warm and dry to near normal summer (this would apply to the months June to September, and also to "astronomical summer" 21 June to 21 Sept). There will be intervals of very warm, dry weather at times, separated by periods that are close to normal in temperature with more frequent rainfall. It is not expected to become oppressively warm or hot for long periods, but there could be a few hot days. The trend from June to August is likely to be a drying trend. Now, as the current conditions are quite dry in the north especially, what this means is that May will bring somewhat more normal rainfalls and so will June, so this current drought should ease although not likely totally erased. Then a somewhat drier trend will return, and this applies to north and south. This dry trend is likely to continue into September.

For those who would like numbers more than words, this prediction would expect June to be about 0.5 to 1.0 C deg above average with near normal rainfall; July about zero to 0.5 C deg above average with 80-100% of normal rainfall, and August about 0.7 to 1.4 C deg above average with 60-80% of normal rainfall. This August trend should be continued in September.

This appears likely to be another rather active tropical storm season in the North Atlantic so there is likely a higher than random chance of a brush with one remnant storm system most likely in September or October.

While these comments are meant to be quite general, local storms can always develop within this pattern and be quite notable for small areas. The pattern I foresee for this summer is not particularly "potent" for severe storm development but a long-range forecast really cannot hope to predict that sort of detail months in advance.

Although I don't expect a major heat wave like that experienced in August 2003 or July 2006, this summer does show a little higher than average on a heat wave index from analogues, so I would not want to rule out that chance, but would rate it as about one in five (random might be more like one in ten).

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I would certainly be interested in hearing some other views on how this summer might evolve. So this thread is not necessarily restricted to discussion of this forecast, we can have a wide-ranging discussion of what the summer may hold for Ireland.

It should be emphasized that this forecast is "experimental" and that there is no particular reason to expect strong verification, but also, the scenario being outlined here is not vastly different from "normal" summer weather and unlike the winter forecast, does not promise anything entirely out of the ordinary. Whether that one delivered or not is evidently still a matter of debate (I would certainly accept a mixed bag of results) but this time, if something very unusual happens, I would say it isn't covered in this forecast. However, as pointed out above, something very unusual on a local scale is harder to predict than a trend that is very unusual.

lucy2010

Thanks MT - Thats good enough for me . I dont see the words " wash out " anywhere in the above .

Could I possibly be cheeky & ask for an input into the remainder of May. WIth communions & confirmations being the norm for the next few weekends there is many an anxious mammy about so your views would be gratefully appreciated.
Jen

Aiel

Thanks for the forecast as always M.T.
How confident would you be for the rainfall predictions you've mentioned?Its just i'd be slightly concerned about the below or near normal rainfall amounts you've forecasted.Dont get me wrong,i'd like a long hot summer as much as the next guy but its been so dry lately with river levels below normal in some parts.If there was below normal rainfall amounts in the following few months then it could lead to relative drought conditions in some parts of the country.Im just thinking of low river levels near my house and very dry gorse that seems ready to go up in flames soon,God forbid.

pauldry

Think its meant to rain a lot this week and next according to forecasts

Redsunset

I see M.T prediction made national headlines in the Star news paper.sensationalist headline though.

lord lucan

Sounds good to me. No mention of periods of extended precipitation so it's all good.:)

Iancar29

I love a bit of sun , but would always like it to be accompanied by some nice thundery showers every few days to freshin everthing up! ....


BBQ and Beach days..... then Thundery Relaxing Evenings.... BAM!.... A SUMMER TO REMEMBER!

M.T. Cranium

As mentioned perhaps somewhat obscurely in the forecast, I do think the current drought conditions should ease considerably in the next week to ten days across parts of the north and east and that June should hold to near normal rainfall, but the later parts of the summer may start to show signs of drought here and there once again. It would not surprise me, however, if one or two locations stay relatively dry through this upcoming spell of widespread relief-providing rainfalls as this is often the case with spring or summer precipitation patterns to show considerable variability place to place. And I certainly hope that the next six to eight weeks will provide relief where needed and get the agricultural season moving in the right direction.

Antrim_Man

I drove through Belfast at 5pm on Friday and the temp in the car was showing 27c. On Sunday it was reading 9c :mad: Cant believe how bad the forecast is for the next 15 days for here in Bray

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI026;BRAY;&metric=1

Aiel

Antrim_Man wrote: »

I drove through Belfast at 5pm on Friday and the temp in the car was showing 27c. On Sunday it was reading 9c :mad: Cant believe how bad the forecast is for the next 15 days for here in Bray

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI026;BRAY;&metric=1

I know its bad right now but i wouldnt put too much faith in Accuweather's 15 Day forecast's.

Antrim_Man

Aiel wrote: »

I know its bad right now but i wouldnt put too much faith in Accuweather's 15 Day forecast's.

Find accuweather pretty accurate

Aiel

Antrim_Man wrote: »

Find accuweather pretty accurate

I dont find their 15 day forecast anywhere near accurate,but these days 15 hours is all you can predict:).

pauldry

these days showery will do as a forecast everyday bar an odd mainly dry rain later day til at least July

TheMilkyPirate

pauldry wrote: »

these days showery will do as a forecast everyday bar an odd mainly dry rain later day til at least July

kkontour

pauldry wrote: »

these days showery will do as a forecast everyday bar an odd mainly dry rain later day til at least July

baraca wrote: »

I'll take the days with showers because, apart from the odd dry day, it will rain later in the day until at least july. Am I close?

pauldry

yes sorry a messy sneaked post at work when i was sposed to be working.

Let me clarify

I think youv got it.

I think it will be showery most of the days of June
apart from days when it is dry for a few hours before a band of rain moves in

Jesus Im finding it hard to explain myself. Can anyone else write English:p

Antrim_Man

pauldry wrote: »

yes sorry a messy sneaked post at work when i was sposed to be working.

Let me clarify

I think youv got it.

I think it will be showery most of the days of June
apart from days when it is dry for a few hours before a band of rain moves in

Jesus Im finding it hard to explain myself. Can anyone else write English:p

Its going to pish for the rest of June