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ECB is leading Ireland and the eurozone to disaster

  • 01-05-2011 12:28pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭


    Colm McCarthy (of the Bord Snip fame) has yet another good article
    Yields on Greek government bonds have reached stratospheric levels, implying that the markets regard a Greek default as a virtual certainty.
    Both Irish and Portuguese yields suggest that the markets also see very high default probabilities in these countries.
    But all three countries now face the prospect of sovereign default. [
    ...
    The ECB's actions have been described as 'bouncing' Ireland into a deal with official lenders whose terms are regarded by many economic commentators, in Europe as well as in Ireland, as both unfair and unfavourable.
    ...
    The deal has failed to resolve the banking crisis and has continued the policy of favouring bond investors in failed banks. It has also created a widespread perception that the ECB is not greatly concerned about the prospect of sovereign default in eurozone member states including Greece, Ireland and Portugal, all of whom are currently excluded from sovereign debt markets and with no visible re-entry strategy.
    ...
    It is being assumed that the financial situation can be resolved solely through a further tightening of budgetary policy. This in turn assumes that there is no risk of sovereign default and that all debts can be paid, which implies that the markets have got it wrong.
    Alternatively, if the markets are right and there is a sovereign default, then that's just too bad.

    Oh dear oh dear what little mess we (and few other countries) find ourselves in, please keep in mind that the article was written by someone who was calling for quick and sharp cuts and whose recommendations was not taken on board fully.

    Ive been going on about this for some time now, by lumping the public and banking debts into one and not differentiating between and dealing with the two separate problems the country will endup defaulting (im sure some euphemism would be invented such as "restructuring" in order to avoid the D word). Not only the EU and ECB not helping they are making matters worse, again.


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 784 ✭✭✭zootroid


    Was reading that earlier.

    With so many "experts" giving their opinion these days, I tend to ignore a lot of the debate (mainly because a lot are simply furthering their own agenda). But he is someone who quite clearly knows what he's talking about, and also appears to not have a specific agenda, except the good of the country.

    Makes for interesting reading. If true (and it is very persuasive) is there anything we can do? I fear not, and lay the blame firmly at Cowen and Lenihan's door


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