Sub 2hr Marathon in 2028?

BeepBeep67

http://bbc.in/hNTtOX

By analysing actual performances and extrapolating, Francois Peronnet, a professor at the University of Montreal, calculates that the first sub two-hour marathon will be run in the year 2028.

The current world record holder, Ethiopian Haile Gebrselassie, who ran the 2008 Berlin Marathon in 2:03:59, has no doubt it could be done, but not in the next few years, ruling out the next Games.
The 38-year-old tells me: "No question. The first sub two-hour marathon will need 20 to 25 years, but it will definitely happen."

ThePiedPiper

I can't see it happening ever..

Up until 1997, nobody had even gone under 1 hour for the half marathon. Only the very very elite ever get under one hour, it's still incredibly rare. Sub 2 hours would require putting two of these back to back, it's highly unlikely.

It would be the equivelent in sprinting terms of running the 400 metres in sub 40 seconds.. That's not ever going to happen.

2.02 might just be possible with the best possible conditions and the very best athlete in top condition but sub 2 is too big a step away. Haile Geb seems to be almost unique amongst top marathoners in thinking it's possible. Maybe that's just part of his personality in believing anything is possible.

shels4ever

RunForestRun wrote: »

I can't see it happening ever..

Up until 1997, nobody had even gone under 1 hour for the half marathon. Only the very very elite ever get under one hour, it's still incredibly rare. Sub 2 hours would require putting two of these back to back, it's highly unlikely.

It would be the equivelent in sprinting terms of running the 400 metres in sub 40 seconds.. That's not ever going to happen.

2.02 might just be possible with the best possible conditions and the very best athlete in top condition but sub 2 is too big a step away. Haile Geb seems to be almost unique amongst top marathoners in thinking it's possible. Maybe that's just part of his personality in believing anything is possible.

I would almost agree with you , but can't ever say its never going to happen. But i do think that Haile could have gone faster had he turned to marathon a couple of years earlier. But from watching most of the big city marathons over the last few years, I think its the years on the track that have allowed him go so fast, his pace control for the world record is far better then any of his rivial. They all seem to fail over the last 10k.

token56

Of course it can happen, and it probably will too. It will just take some special to do it. I think there is also a trend now some elite athletes to start competing in marathons younger than before. The current mens and womens marathon records are held by two amazing athletes who spend the majority of their best years competing in the shorter distance on the track and moved to marathon when they didn't have the same raw speed they used to. But I think you will find more and more elites who will go the marathon relatively quickly. I think this will certainly help.

It's also very possible that some special will come along and redefine what we thought was possible in terms of distance running. It has happened in sprinting with Bolt. Before him people didn't think we could run the sort of times he has ran, and certainly not for another 20 years or so. Its also almost certain he can still run faster. It's just as possible the same thing will happen in the marathon and a sub-2 will be on the table.

ThePiedPiper

But some very special athletes have come along, notably Kenenisa Bekele in the 10,000 metres, who has taken the grand total of 5 seconds off Haile's 1998 world record in the 10,000. That might give him 20 seconds under 2.03.59 in the marathon, so we're at 2.03.39.

Also, Wanjiru is being labled as extremely special and he is.. Yet, for one reason or another, he hasn't yet gotten within 1 minute 10 seconds of the world record. He's an extremely special runner who has gone straight to the marathon from an early age and while undoubtably has recorded some amazing results hasn't come close to world record time yet.

It's the lack of serious progression in the 10,000 metres since the days of Haile and Tergat and the fact that it may take a 56 minute half marathoner to break 2 hours in the marathon that lead me to believe it isn't possible.

But yes, a genetic freak may come along and throw the whole thing on it's head and go sub-2. It'll be fascinating to see how close to that limit the current crop and future generations can get.

kingQuez

What's the limiting factor on the record, something psychological, physiological or a rock bottom limit in terms of physics? With enough time, the first two can be resolved

airscotty

The answer to all your questions!! http://www.sportsscientists.com/2007/10/haile-gebrselassie-i-can-run-203-but-i.html

Well not really...

Pherekydes

RunForestRun wrote: »

It would be the equivelent in sprinting terms of running the 400 metres in sub 40 seconds.. That's not ever going to happen.

They are not even close to being equivalent.

On the IAAF scoring tables, a 2-hr marathon is worth 1353 pts, while the tables only go as low as 41.61 for 400m, which is worth 1400pts.

I agree that a 2:02 marathon is within the grasp of some of the top half marathoners around now, and Kenenisa Bekele has yet to lace on his road shoes.

ecoli

Pherekydes wrote: »

They are not even close to being equivalent.

On the IAAF scoring tables, a 2-hr marathon is worth 1353 pts, while the tables only go as low as 41.61 for 400m, which is worth 1400pts.

I agree that a 2:02 marathon is within the grasp of some of the top half marathoners around now, and Kenenisa Bekele has yet to lace on his road shoes.

Given KBs current problems its more a matter of if rather than when but hopefully he can come through them 15 months out of competition now.

I think given the shift in attitudes of the East Africans in the last 5 years i can see the marathon dropping a good bit over the next 20 years though i still think we are about 50 years off sub 2 hour attempts just yet

robinph

Just based on some pretty dodgy stats analysis by me over the last two minutes, since 1977 there has been 4 minutes knocked off the half marathon record. In the same time there has only been 5 minutes taken off the marathon record.

Half progression
Full progression

So they are not reducing at anywhere near the same rate. If I've got my thinking the right way round then it would need to be hitting 53 minute half times to be in with a chance of the sub 2hr full. So a loooong way to go yet.

Dan man

No point in comparing the marathon with the 400m. It could be done, but it would be a feat of epic proportions. It may take some time for someone to go sub 2:02 never mind knocking another 2 minutes off that time. Possible yes, very unlikely though by 2028 IMHO.

Dan man

Maybe Alistair Cragg will take the world by storm with a sub 2 hours in Boston!!

myflipflops

ecoli wrote: »

I think given the shift in attitudes of the East Africans in the last 5 years i can see the marathon dropping a good bit over the next 20 years though i still think we are about 50 years off sub 2 hour attempts just yet

I agree with this, including the 50 year time period.

It is very possible that the recent trend towards the marathon will move back towards the track in 10-20 years as the amount of quality marathon runners gets a point where guys aren't guaranteed a living so the trend moves back to track running. That would make it less likely.

G-Money

Interesting article on the BBC website about this.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-12933932

YFlyer

G-Money wrote: »

Interesting article on the BBC website about this.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-12933932

Interesting comment (#59) by Peter Burke on how to get sub 2 hours.

corny

RunForestRun wrote: »

I can't see it happening ever..

Exactly 30 years ago the record was 4 minutes slower than it is now. Haile won't do it, maybe no runner alive at the minute will do it but you can be absolutely certain a human being will run the marathon under 2 hours at some point in the future.

If the history of sporting achievement teaches us anything its that progress is relentless!

RoyMcC

corny wrote: »

If the history of sporting achievement teaches us anything its that progress is relentless!

I wonder if it does. Sometimes you wonder if a peak has been reached and that further improvement is unlikely.

OK Geb's mara record has stood for less than 3 years but

• The European mara record (M) has stood for 8 years, the Oceania record for 25 years.
• Bekele's 5000m record has stood now for 7 years
• The world high jump records have stood for 18 (M) and 24 (F) years respectively.
• The TJ records, both M & W, have stood now for 16 years
• The Jersey long jump record of 7.29m has stood since 1949, no one's come close.

Not so relentless.

TheRoadRunner

The cynic in me thinks that with right concoction of drugs and ninja style training camp out of the way of testers anything is possible!

myflipflops

RoyMcC wrote: »

I wonder if it does. Sometimes you wonder if a peak has been reached and that further improvement is unlikely.

OK Geb's mara record has stood for less than 3 years but

• The European mara record (M) has stood for 8 years, the Oceania record for 25 years.
• Bekele's 5000m record has stood now for 7 years
• The world high jump records have stood for 18 (M) and 24 (F) years respectively.
• The TJ records, both M & W, have stood now for 16 years
• The Jersey long jump record of 7.29m has stood since 1949, no one's come close.

Not so relentless.

Good point.

I still think the change in attitude towards the marathon specifically in the last 10 years, especially from the Africans, will see the WR in it continue to improve. There are more quality runners tackling the distance at a much younger age than ever before.

Considering the global decline in track and field, the records in HJ and TW may be explained by a decline in the number of people taking up those events (pure speculation from me here!).

With the 5k, we just got the ultimate 'freak' with Bekele. Daniel Komens 3k record, another 'freak', will take a LONG time to touch too.

I'm not going to touch the Jersey long jump record!

Pherekydes

myflipflops wrote: »

With the 5k, we just got the ultimate 'freak' with Bekele.

I thought his predecessor was the "ultimate freak" (The Emperor Haile, I mean)?

People thought Michael Johnson's record would last forever, but along comes Usain Bolt.

Ultimate freak? Just wait awhile; there'll be another one along sooner or later.

corny

RoyMcC wrote: »

I wonder if it does. Sometimes you wonder if a peak has been reached and that further improvement is unlikely.

OK Geb's mara record has stood for less than 3 years but

• The European mara record (M) has stood for 8 years, the Oceania record for 25 years.
• Bekele's 5000m record has stood now for 7 years
• The world high jump records have stood for 18 (M) and 24 (F) years respectively.
• The TJ records, both M & W, have stood now for 16 years
• The Jersey long jump record of 7.29m has stood since 1949, no one's come close.

Not so relentless.

We're talking about the depth of human performance not regional records. Jessie Owens was jumping further than 7.29M in the 30's.

The 5000M wasn't broken from 87-94 (7 years) then along came Haile. Then along came Bekele. Are you saying another 'along came' isn't possible? Its not only possible its inevitable. Usains taken sprinting to a new level now but in time he'll be surpassed too. Every sport moves forward. The hour record in cycling, improvement in chess ratings, the standard in field sports, the list is endless and yet every generation seems to think they represent the pinnacle of whats possible. In the fifties they were trying to break the 4 minute mile. If you told someone back then 3.43 can be done they'd probably find it hard to swallow.

To put a limit on the marathon record by saying under 2 hours isn't possible is just being short sighted IMO. In a hundred years time they might be running 1hr 50!

opus

One of the guys from the Marathon Talk site has made the podcast of the BBC sub 2 hour marathon radio show available on dropbox here.

Dan man

Records in athletics tend to stand much longer than other sports. The main reason for this is that in other sports, there are constant improvements in gear and equipment. Take cycling for example: improvements made to suits so they are more aerodynamic, not to mention all the improvements made to the bikes themselves. However in athletics there is no technology that can be improved to help the athletes run faster,(no quirky drugs comments please) it is a more simple science. In my opinion, it is this reason that makes it so special when a record is broken in athletics.

robinph

^What they said.

Swimming records have fallen due to fancy suits and changing the design of the pools to stop waves coming back at you. The only athletics event I can think of where there has been a resetting of records due to the technology is javelin, and that is only really because they would no longer fit inside a 400m track with their throws. Guess they may change the hammer or discus at some point for a similar reason, but will be a long time before they need to change the shot because they are throwing too far.

For any of the purely foot based events it is just down to what your wearing on your feet really that could make a significant change.

Gringo78

robinph wrote: »

For any of the purely foot based events it is just down to what your wearing on your feet really that could make a significant change.

Or maybe to what you're not wearing on your feet if you're to believe all the barefoot treehuggers runners

I wonder though will science advances evolve to increase training further?

Perhaps 15 years time Garmin & Polar will be releasing the latest standard versions of watches that measure oxygen uptake and blood lactate continuously?

Heart rate variability(HRV) is something I would see as being not used yet a whole lot that could potentially enable athletes to train harder but more sensibly and on the limit of overtraining but without surpassing it, a lot more data collection and marathon tapers could be a lot more finely tuned than the slight guesswork they still are.

Possibly it'll be standard to train with some kind of oxygen mask type thingy that simulate altitude training at ground level year round?

The zero gravity type treadmills that Paula Radcliffe was using might be the standard issue enabling much higher mileage without injury??

I think there's a lot of advances yet to come and while running is still pure in that in the race its just you and your legs, theres a lot of science and gear that can get you to the start line a lot fitter than possible without it.

TheRoadRunner

robinph wrote: »

For any of the purely foot based events it is just down to what your wearing on your feet really that could make a significant change.

Diet, training methods, advances in sports science?

robinph

TheRoadRunner wrote: »

Diet, training methods, advances in sports science?

Changes due to those things happen at a vastly slower rate than inventing a new type of bicycle or swimming costume do though.

as some people have alluded to, currently most marathon runners are 5000m and 10000m runners of the elite level who turn to marathon when they are past their peak. At some point, some billionaire who gets the jogging bug will offer something ridiculous like $10m for the first person to break 2 hours for the marathon, therefore motivating elite runners to go for it at their peak and it will probably be achieved. I do think that it is within the bounds of human capability....

myflipflops

TheRoadRunner wrote: »

Diet, training methods, advances in sports science?

The thing is, for all the oxygen tents and alter-g machines and that in the world, the best marathon runners are still the Kenya guys living at home, eating Ugali and training on dirt roads and tracks.

ThePiedPiper

London this weekend will tell us a lot I think.

The absense of Wanjiru might actually make for a faster race as his tactics are usually to destroy the field in the opening 15km and then finish more conservatively.

There's a lot of guys running London this weekend that have run sub 2.06, 7 of them I think. It'll be very intersting to see if the race is tactical or if they go for world record pace from the off. We could see a few sub 2.05 finishers on Sunday, 2 or 3 of them have the potential to go sub 2.04.

Until there are a few people regularly going 2.03 or 2.02, I think it's premature talking about sub 2.00. Wanjiru was talking up sub 2.00 a couple of years ago, but seems to have put a sock in it lately as he hasn't yet seriously challenged sub 2.04. Hopefully a sub 2.04 finish on Sunday will get us all talking seriously about the potential of Makau, Kebede, etc. who have age on their side.

BeepBeep67

myflipflops wrote: »

The thing is, for all the oxygen tents and alter-g machines and that in the world, the best marathon runners are still the Kenya guys living at home, eating Ugali and training on dirt roads and tracks.

As the mark lowers towards 2hrs and some big sponsor puts on his less than 1mt drop, V shaped, finishing less than 13.1miles from the start race and throws out the incentive of a $1M bonus for breaking 2hrs - I do hope it is some Ugali eating super kid from Kenya and that the temptation isn't there to do it via illegal means.

ronnie085

discussion on newstalk in a few mins