Fewer cars and more cyclists in Dublin city centre

jeffwode

Report from Dublin City Council shows a steady increase in cyclist numbers crossing the canals each morning.

http://bit.ly/epY2nx

unionman

From the IT article:

The biggest change in commuting patterns over the last 10 years has been in the number of cyclists. At the beginning of the decade 4,464 people were cycling into the city between 7am and 10am.

There was some fluctuation in subsequent years but cycling numbers reached a low of 3,941 in 2004.

Since then numbers rose steadily, reaching a peak of 6,326 in 2009.

There was some slippage last year, down to 5,952, but this could be a reflection of the overall drop in commuter numbers.

seamus

Also...

The annual count is made in November each year, with council workers stationed between 7am and 10am at 33 locations where it is possible to enter the city, based around a cordon formed by the Royal and Grand canals

I would argue that there's a case for multiple counts per year. Though I suppose if they're interested in proportions, when they do it isn't that important. My contention would be though that in cold and wet november conditions, more people will drive themselves rather than walk, cycle or take the bus.
If they took the same figures in early May (when everyone is still in school and not gone on holidays), they could average them out or whatever other statistical trickery.

trad

Would €6.90 per gallon have anything to do with it or is the sysle to work scheme actually working?

the_syco

I wonder are they being clever, and using percentage of workers in Dublin are now cycling instead of driving.

Or if they're being dumb, ignoring the recession, ignoring the lack of people in jobs. Fewer people driving in, fewer people walking in... um, yeah. Can't be cos less people have jobs now, is it :S

In 2006 the council’s annual traffic count recorded 2,291 goods vehicles entering the city in the morning peak. By the following year this figure fell to 1,445.

Wasn't there some stupid ban put in place around then to get deliveries not done at certain times?

The stats, by themselves, look good, but if put in context (of less people working), they'd probably look bad?

seamus

trad wrote: »

Would €6.90 per gallon have anything to do with it or is the sysle to work scheme actually working?

I honestly don't know the answer to this one.

It's reasonable to say that most people with commutes over 10k don't even have cycling in the realm of "viable alternative" unless they're really stuck.

So if someone's commute is 10k, and they're getting mileage of 8.5L/100km, then a week's worth of commuting is 8.5L * E1.50 = E12.75.

Hardly breaking the bank, and certainly doesn't seem like enough to justify the one-off cost that even a basic bike will incur.

Someone with a 50km round trip is obviously paying way more than that, but won't view cycling as a viable alternative.

I think it's a combination of multiple factors, all primarily using word-of-mouth to give more support. That is, people in work see one guy doing his commute by bike. He never arrives into work sullen and grumpy, he's not a weirdo, quite popular in fact and when anyone asks he tells them how quickly he gets in and how dead easy it is. The dublin bikes scheme introduced urban cycling to people who then realise that it's a viable of getting to work, not just for getting around the city, and the bike to work scheme made people think, "I could use a new bike, give this cycling lark a go. Joe around the corner has lost a bit of weight and seems to love it".

There also seems to be something of a post-Tiger fitness buzz going on in this country, which no doubt helps.

But I don't think it's possible to point to any one factor and say, "That's why more people are cycling" .

petethedrummer

trad wrote: »

Would €6.90 per gallon have anything to do with it or is the sysle to work scheme actually working?

I dunno, noone I know has suddenly taken up cycling to work due to the recent petrol price rises but maybe some people have. Cycling is getting more popular of its own accord and bike shops ran out of some ranges of bikes due to the CTW scheme. Probably a bit of everything.

flickerx

seamus wrote: »

Also...
I would argue that there's a case for multiple counts per year. Though I suppose if they're interested in proportions, when they do it isn't that important. My contention would be though that in cold and wet november conditions, more people will drive themselves rather than walk, cycle or take the bus.

Agreed. A lot more people cycle from March to September.

tomasrojo

Certainly should be a count in the spring or summer. It also is the time when more people will occasionally walk to work, if the distance isn't too great. So overall, use of motorised vehicles may be lower in spring and summer.

Doctor Bob

tomasrojo wrote: »

So overall, use of motorised vehicles may be lower in spring and summer.

Also, once the schools are out car trips drop significantly as a) the kids aren't being driven there, and b) parents are free to choose to cycle where they may not have this luxury during term time (or may not think they do).

Additional counts would be very welcome, but they're very labour intensive and the Council isn't exactly awash with money, I suspect.

There are automated cycle counters being installed in the city centre soon enough, I believe, but these have received an, um, lukewarm welcome from certain quarters since their trialling began on the N11 near UCD.

the_syco wrote: »

I wonder are they being clever, and using percentage of workers in Dublin are now cycling instead of driving.

Or if they're being dumb, ignoring the recession, ignoring the lack of people in jobs. Fewer people driving in, fewer people walking in... um, yeah. Can't be cos less people have jobs now, is it :S


Wasn't there some stupid ban put in place around then to get deliveries not done at certain times?

The stats, by themselves, look good, but if put in context (of less people working), they'd probably look bad?

I suspect they may look better.

Obviously it's likely the recession had some impact on city trip patterns, but the survey doesn't distinguish between trip types, so whether you're cycling/driving/whatever to work or to the dole office, your trip counts.

What makes you describe the 5-axle HGV ban in the city centre 'stupid'? It's obviously had an impact on the number of HGV trips into/around the city, but that's a knock-on effect, not the primary purpose of the ban, which was - in theory, at least - to make the city safer for cyclists and pedestrians.

mgmt

seamus wrote: »

So if someone's commute is 10k, and they're getting mileage of 8.5L/100km, then a week's worth of commuting is 8.5L * E1.50 = E12.75.

Hardly breaking the bank, and certainly doesn't seem like enough to justify the one-off cost that even a basic bike will incur.

Add to that the cost of parking your car,

5 x circa E12 (Jervis car park) = 60euro
+ 12.75euro = 72.75 euro

If Dublin City Council jacked up their parking rates it would offer the same results as a more expensive congestion charge.

Cookie_Monster

trad wrote: »

Would €6.90 per gallon have anything to do with it or is the sysle to work scheme actually working?

where have you ever seen petrol in Ireland sold in gallons.

~150.9 per litre at the moment

seamus

mgmt wrote: »

Add to that the cost of parking your car,

5 x circa E12 (Jervis car park) = 60euro
+ 12.75euro = 72.75 euro

If Dublin City Council jacked up their parking rates it would offer the same results as a more expensive congestion charge.

I've always suspected that most people who drive into the city centre for work are being supplied with parking spaces either by default or as part of employment benefits. Paying for parking five days a week in any of the city centre car parks is just idiocy, though I suppose it would have caught on during the boom.

In any case, I don't necessarily agree with charging more for parking in the city centre, as Dublin City centre doesn't have the same shopping draw as say London. People will (and do) go to shopping centres with free parking and making it cost nearly a fiver before you even get out of your car is only going to discourage it more.

Obviously you could do a wider study on it, determine that, e.g., 95% of shoppers spend between 3 and 6 hours in the city centre and then levy additional parking fees on any vehicle parked in a space for 7 hours or more.

It's a weird one alright. In one sense I don't think we necessarily want to discourage shoppers from driving into the city centre (though preferably they'd park ASAP rather than drive around) because public transport is inadequate for shopping really, but we do want to discourage commuters.

el tel

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

where have you ever seen petrol in Ireland sold in gallons.

~150.9 per litre at the moment

Pre Sept 1992 gallon was the norm in Ireland, and could be seen as a supplementary indication up until 1999. People tend to underestimate the costs of fuel in litres so gallons is an appropriate unit to remind them of the comparitive costs these days. Petrol is €6.90 odds and its a disgrace.

At this rate Dublin will be like Beijing.

I wonder if the numbers of cycle commuters is commensurate with the number of ctw bikes bought.

tomasrojo

Someone mentioned the work of Donal Shoup to me in relation to car parking. Interesting stuff, especially the idea of modifying the cost of parking spaces to ensure that they are about 85% occupied at all times to minimise cruising around looking for spaces.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parking#Performance_parking

Performance parking
Donald C. Shoup in 2005 argued in his The High Cost of Free Parking book against the large consumption of land and other resources in urban and suburban areas for motor vehicle parking.[8] Shoup's work has been popularized along with market-rate parking and performance parking, both of which raise the price of metered street parking with the goal of reducing cruising for parking and double parking.
'Performance parking' or variable-rate parking is based on Dr. Shoup's ideas. Electronic parking meters are used so that parking spaces in desirable locations and at desirable times are more expensive than less desirable locations. Other variations also include escalating rates based on duration of parking. More modern ideas use networked parking meters which "bid up" (or down) the price of parking automatically with the goal of keeping 85–90% of the spaces in use at any given time to ensure perpetual parking availability. These ideas have been implemented in Redwood City, California[9] and are being implemented in San Francisco.[10]

-Chris-

el tel wrote: »

People tend to underestimate the costs of fuel in litres so gallons is an appropriate unit to remind them of the comparitive costs these days.

Sure if you're trying to make a point, why stop there? Go for the gold and start quoting the price per megalitre :rolleyes::D

DirkVoodoo

I don't think the price of petrol/diesel is a disgrace, when you think about it.

In fact, it's comparatively cheap against something like wine which (ok, would be even more expensive without oil) is more expensive per litre (or gallon).

We can't make oil with the same ease as we make wine.

When I was working out the cost of buying my car, doubling (I may have even tripled) my annual mileage and increasing the average consumption didn't offset what I was paying in motor tax, insurance and depreciation.

For the average urban commuter, fuel costs are not the issue and it would take a really dramatic rise to make driving any less feasible. I think rising fuel costs have just forced people to stop ignoring how expensive a car is to run as a whole, rather than being the sole cause.

Macha

DirkVoodoo wrote: »

For the average urban commuter, fuel costs are not the issue and it would take a really dramatic rise to make driving any less feasible. I think rising fuel costs have just forced people to stop ignoring how expensive a car is to run as a whole, rather than being the sole cause.

The thing is many motoring costs, including fuel costs, are incremental. Humans tend to be more accepting of this type of price structure compared to an all in one price. That's one reason why Ryanair does so well with it's "drip pricing" ticket structure online

Plus because of the large upfront expense, many people think they'd better get the most value out of it by driving the car as much as they can.

DirkVoodoo

EDIT: Woops!

tomasrojo

Macha wrote: »

Plus because of the large upfront expense, many people think they'd better get the most value out of it by driving the car as much as they can.

This is a major problem; once people have a car, it's very hard to persuade them to travel other ways, because most other methods aren't much cheaper than running a car AFTER the upfront expense.