A sting in the tail of Winter 2010/11 possible?

Danno

Looking out into FI, there seems to be signs of the Polar Vortex moving out of Greenland, SE towards us around 240hrs. Beyond that it looks like pressure will build over Greenland and a mid-Atlantic ridge will also form to give a strong block there. This means screaming northerlies down over Ireland or just to our west. Beyond next weekend (April 17th/18th) we could get a sting-tail of winter! Hard to fathom it ATM, especially when 21c is quite possible tomorrow - but it has happened manys a time before. April 1995, dare I say, looks like repeating!

nacho libre

That's incredible, but as you say it has happened before. I recall one year getting snow as late as the first week of May. I just can't recall if it was actually 1995 or not.

je55ie

wow that seems unreal, can you explain what temps we could expect from it if it did happen?

Danno

If it does happen, daytime maxima would range 6c to 9c, but under showers the temperature would drop to 3c or 4c with hail, sleet and snow showers. Alot of thunder too! Night time minimas could go to -3c or lower.

I remember in April 1995, it was 19c around 11am was followed by lying snow on the Castlecomer pleatau at 5.30pm! I cannot totally remember if it was the same day or the following day the snow came, but it was quite a turn-around in a very short space of time.

A similar situation in June 2009 saw temperatures in the mid to high 20s during the first week, however on the 6th a NE wind brought near 50mm of rain and hail to much of Leinster, esp Dublin/Wicklow and highs of 8c to 11 - not too long ago, eh?

cherryghost

Seems we're on for a sharp drop in temperatures from midweek onwards with next weekend seemingly set for low temperatures, raging wind and possible storm force conditions :eek:

delw

Danno wrote: »

If it does happen, daytime maxima would range 6c to 9c, but under showers the temperature would drop to 3c or 4c with hail, sleet and snow showers. Alot of thunder too! Night time minimas could go to -3c or lower.

I remember in April 1995, it was 19c around 11am was followed by lying snow on the Castlecomer pleatau at 5.30pm! I cannot totally remember if it was the same day or the following day the snow came, but it was quite a turn-around in a very short space of time.

A similar situation in June 2009 saw temperatures in the mid to high 20s during the first week, however on the 6th a NE wind brought near 50mm of rain and hail to much of Leinster, esp Dublin/Wicklow and highs of 8c to 11 - not too long ago, eh?

I'l take that at this time of year thank you very much
like you say Danno its FI at moment but worth keeping an eye on

Sponge Bob

I recall 2 cold crappy springs right into June, 1995 is one and 2002 another. Mind you 1995 turned out rather well starting from mid June

maquiladora

Snow/cold are great in the middle of a festive winter but I really don't want a return to cold/miserable weather at this time of year....

eskimocat

It will be very interesting to see how this pans out. I understand that its FI terriorty but when I see MT and Danno etc all nodding their heads in the one possible direction I find its well worth keeping an eye on. Oh goodie...lol

snowstreams

Typical :rolleyes: I picked April because it is statistically a dry month. And now it looks like it could be freezing and stormy on the day!
Though maybe I will escape before the bad weather set in, wedding is April 16th?

Iancar29

I personally cant see this happening... im too used to it staying far outside realistic time-scales on the models.

But ye, it would be good to see something happen, especially if it favours convection ! ...

Only time shall tell!

NEver say never

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBZL8_p1IaY

Had to check who the OP was Would have bet the ranch it was another poster. ;);)

Iancar29

Jake1 wrote: »

Had to check who the OP was Would have bet the ranch it was another poster. ;);)

He's probably has a flu and cant be on much! ha

je55ie

Any update on this? Like the snow etc but really don't want it again until Nov/Dec

Danno

No updates on this yet, models are all over the place at the moment, and hard to see a trend emerge. Background signals suggest a Greenland high & Mid Atlantic blocking to setup to give us aforementioned cold spell. Later down the line a High develops between Scotland + Iceland.

pauldry

Wintry sting keeps getting pushed out and it could be 16c by the end of the week now but as Danno says models all over the place but feel it wont be overly severe but dont rule out white mountain tips if northerlies come next weekend or nxt monday

TheMilkyPirate

Yes!! White mountain tips!!! :D


:rolleyes:


Winter....is....over.

Min

Looks like winter is over indeed.

No cold weather in sight and probably not again till next winter. The models have dumped the cold.

bb1234567

ok atleast we know now now everyone must now make a pact vowing to not make another snow thread atleast until next november ...no matter what any FI models suggest!

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

Looks like winter is over indeed.

No cold weather in sight and probably not again till next winter. The models have dumped the cold.

Don't worry Min, in seven months or so, which will fly by, the Castlecomer will see snow again:p

Danno

Still no signs of the Greenland High building, but I cannot be rid of the feeling that it will build before too long and we will get a blast of cold northerly air... with the ground rather dry at present, this would be an unusual setup where rapid surface heating takes place under a cold airstream. The individual shower clouds climbing way up would be a spectaclular sight. Wild (for Ireland) temperature swings between the showers, up to 13c or 14c in the lengthy sunny spells and down to 6c or 7c under the showers. It would be an interesting spell to get!

Min

nacho libre wrote: »

Don't worry Min, in seven months or so, which will fly by, the Castlecomer will see snow again:p

Yes, we are getting old fast as time flies by, won't be long till its the Summer Olympics and the winter of 2011/2012 will be forgotten :pac:

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

Yes, we are getting old fast as time flies by, won't be long till its the Summer Olympics and the winter of 2011/2012 will be forgotten :pac:

and then the summer olympics will be over, and we'll be into the epic winter of 2012/13- a winter that rivals 1947 - which will never be forgotten

Sponge Bob

Can a mod lock this thread until mid June and then bump it to tickle the snow bunnys fancy ??? :mad:

M.T. Cranium

Snow will appear briefly one more time on higher ground in Connacht and Donegal around 8-14 May. (60% confidence)

Based on current analogues for warm Aprils and pattern over Atlantic, North America.

I don't present this as any big deal, this is what I think the future snowfall potential is. We shall see.

Danno

Starting to hint at the aforementioned setup once more...

mike65

Desperation stakes Danno! You keep having to push back and push back, one presumes at some point in May you'll give up the ghost!

Danno

Absolutely Mike! I guess it's the supersticious/pattern matching element to my thinking! However, we are in very interesting times regarding weather patterns, despite DE's protests about "quiet" weather!

M.T. Cranium

Might be worth mentioning that there were near-record warm temperatures in the first few days of November 2010 also. Just sayin' ... :cool:

desolate sun

Hi, just wondering is there any update on the snow in May?
Is this still happening?

mike65

Pushed back to June.

BEASTERLY

Will somebody please lock this thread before the weather forum loses all of it's credibility.

oterra

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Will somebody please lock this thread before the weather forum loses all of it's credibility.

I suppose if you leave it open long enough it will be right at some stage.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

thetonynator

Die thread, die!!!!!

it'll never end . . july snow anyone???

Procyon

thetonynator wrote: »

Die thread, die!!!!!

it'll never end . . july snow anyone???

:D:D

I'm surprised there isn't a "Winter 2011/12 Outlook" thread yet.

Sponge Bob

Procyon wrote: »

I'm surprised there isn't a "Winter 2011/12 Outlook" thread yet.

Not until the Snow Q2 2011 aand Snow Q3 2011 threads excite the snow bunnies for a few weeks each.

Su Campu

Yep, Beasterly's right, thread now closed.