Level 1 warning for north

thebiglewbowski

Interesting Level 1 warning from estofex for the northern regions today. Seems to me a little exaggerated, but im no learn'ed storm predictor. No warnings present on torro or met.ie.



DISCUSSION

...N Ireland, Scotland...

The cold front of a strong low pressure system should reach the British Isles in the late evening hours. Some few hundred J/kg CAPE should be present and besides strong forcing from the upper trough, very intense 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear is forecast. Given 30 - 35 m/s background winds at 700 hPa, severe wind gusts in excess of 25 m/s are likely to occur, locally even more than 32 m/s. Enhanced 300 - 500 m²/s² SRH3 combined with strong LL shear may suggest a tornado threat as well. As the gradient wind is also rather strong and the convective contribution to the gust intensity is probably not that high, a threat level 1 is issued in this situation.

Iancar29

Really cant see anything happening either... would love to be wrong tough!

dsmythy

I don't think a Level One is particularly severe anyway.

Iancar29

dsmythy wrote: »

I don't think a Level One is particularly severe anyway.

Ye same here... like compared to the NOAA's warnings... do they even have a similar 5% chance warning?

ednwireland

38km/h gusts this morning supposed to be worse tonight !

thebiglewbowski

Its not a particularly severe warning but its a picture we all hope to be seeing more of from the guys of estofex in the coming 5 months. Any potential extreme occurance over ireland is worth being aware of

hellboy99

ednwireland wrote: »

38km/h gusts this morning supposed to be worse tonight !

40-50km/h here since 12pm and still going.

Harps

Max gust of 55.5km/hr here at half 3, quietened down since then. Nothing interesting here today anyway

Sponge Bob

51kt in Belmullet in the last hour. Near enough 100kph. Worse to come I think overnight.

ednwireland

hmm only hit 27.5km/h gusts shows how sheltered the house is

think the temperature sensor is broken though

05/04/2011 09:00 11.1 °C
05/04/2011 08:00 11.2 °C
05/04/2011 07:00 11.2 °C
05/04/2011 06:00 11.3 °C
05/04/2011 05:00 11.3 °C
05/04/2011 04:00 11.4 °C
05/04/2011 03:00 11.4 °C
05/04/2011 02:00 11.5 °C
05/04/2011 01:00 11.5 °C

5dollakarl

met eireann always get the weather wrong. Meterologists are just paid guessers

dsmythy

5dollakarl wrote: »

met eireann always get the weather wrong. Meterologists are just paid guessers

Not sure what Met Éireann have to do with this thread but on we go.

Iancar29

5dollakarl wrote: »

met eireann always get the weather wrong. Meterologists are just paid guessers

I and many would take offence to that.