Is it nearly all done bar the shouting?

Inquitus

The endgame may not be reached for a year or more, but is Ireland as a country facing checkmate in 15moves or so?

Unemployment is rampant at 14.7%.
Growth is likely to be up to -1% this year.
The banks need another 20bn.
Even on the existing recovery plan we need to take 6bn more out of the economy.
The 6bn in cuts/taxes is based on growth targets we cannot meet, and to meet those savings targets it would need to be far far more.

The entire recovery plan is based on the premise of metrics we now haven't a hope in hell of meeting. The economy seems to be in a death spiral of increased taxes, weaker spending, requiring increased taxes etc etc.

What are the valid outcomes of this situation? Default? or further bailout?

Inq

robd

Inquitus wrote: »

The endgame may not be reached for a year or more, but is Ireland as a country facing checkmate in 15moves or so?

Unemployment is rampant at 14.7%.
Growth is likely to be up to -1% this year.
The banks need another 20bn.
Even on the existing recovery plan we need to take 6bn more out of the economy.
The 6bn in cuts/taxes is based on growth targets we cannot meet, and to meet those savings targets it would need to be far far more.

The entire recovery plan is based on the premise of metrics we now haven't a hope in hell of meeting. The economy seems to be in a death spiral of increased taxes, weaker spending, requiring increased taxes etc etc.

What are the valid outcomes of this situation? Default? or further bailout?

Inq

Hard to say but I think it's bigger than just Ireland. The money system which is backed by nothing but debt is fundamentally broken. In one way we're in dire straights but in an other way we have a huge export surplus.

The big boys are trying desperately to make it look like it's unique to Ireland cause it was irresponsible.

Look at the US debt situation though. They can't keep exponentially borrowing forever to cover their deficit. Who's going to fund them. China will only go so far.

th3 s1aught3r

Where would we be today if we had not guaratnteed the banks in 2008. Letting Anglo go etc. I am no expert but Lenihan said that the banking sector would have collapsed which would have been a disaster. Is that true ?
Would we be in a worse situation than we are now or would it be the same

RichardAnd

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Where would we be today if we had not guaratnteed the banks in 2008. Letting Anglo go etc. I am no expert but Lenihan said that the banking sector would have collapsed which would have been a disaster. Is that true ?
Would we be in a worse situation than we are now or would it be the same

We can only postulate as it's just another one of those "what if" situiations that litter history books.

To the OP, Ireland is undergoing a contraction from the wild hights it climbed to during the boom. The state of the Republic of Ireland is not finished and it will likely be here long after we're all gone but boom tome ireland is dead and burried, perhaps for the best. What we see all around us are the painful symptoms of that contraction and can be explained thus:

Unemployment: IT's high, no doubt about that. However a huge chunk of the jobs lost were construction based jobs that should never have existed (not a stab at those that held them). Many more are graduates that are qualified to work in areas that were dependant on construction and more again were retail releated that were in turn dependant on the bubble. In short, the construction industry was a fallacy and when it blew up, it took many people with it. On top of this we have the tens of thousands of unemployables.

Finances: Again, the construction bubble created a massive amount of disposable income which in turn created a huge amount of disposable tax which should not have been. Our public finances greatly expanded on the back of this surge in income and now that it is gone, they have to adjust accordingly. Hence, yes we have to take much more from the economy but that money never should have been there at all to begin with.

Banks: This is a real problem allright. We need a banking system to function but the cost of maintaining ours has become a huge burden that only seems to be getting worse.

coup1917

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Where would we be today if we had not guaratnteed the banks in 2008. Letting Anglo go etc. I am no expert but Lenihan said that the banking sector would have collapsed which would have been a disaster. Is that true ?
Would we be in a worse situation than we are now or would it be the same

I've heard countless economists / journalists describe it as the most historically important / life changing decision ever made by any goverment.

I have yet to hear anyone confirm it was the wrong move by Brian Lenihan. Has anybody stated this...??

Can you imagine if they hesitated and we couldn't even access the ATMs the following day.....? :eek::eek:

The damage was already done at that moment - He must have been under serious pressure during that time

RichardAnd

coup1917 wrote: »

I've heard countless economists / journalists describe it as the most historically important / life changing decision ever made by any goverment.

I have yet to hear anyone confirm it was the wrong move by Brian Lenihan. Has anybody stated this...??

Can you imagine if they hesitated and we couldn't even access the ATMs the following day.....? :eek::eek:

The damage was already done at that moment - He must have been under serious pressure during that time

I think that Brain did what he honestly thought was right at the time. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and likely, the veracity of bailing out the banks will be debated for decades to come. Maybe it was wrong but who can really say what might have been.

the culture of deference

RichardAnd wrote: »

I think that Brain did what he honestly thought was right at the time. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and likely, the veracity of bailing out the banks will be debated for decades to come. Maybe it was wrong but who can really say what might have been.

We know that bertie and his lot were warned from 2000 about this. If we had decent politicians our country could have been a wonderful place to grow up and live in, instead we were run into the ground by a fanatical church, greedy incompetent fools and a weak population.

We will continue to slide downwards until at least 1 million are unemployed and 4 or 5 families are sharing a house. Many will die, anarchy will break out.

Cookie_Monster

RichardAnd wrote: »

Unemployment: IT's high, no doubt about that. However a huge chunk of the jobs lost were construction based jobs that should never have existed (not a stab at those that held them). Many more are graduates that are qualified to work in areas that were dependant on construction and more again were retail releated that were in turn dependant on the bubble. In short, the construction industry was a fallacy and when it blew up, it took many people with it. On top of this we have the tens of thousands of unemployables.

and with the scaling back of banks and all the mergers you can add another 6-10k to that I imagine. AIB looking to loose 3,000 staff even before the merger with EBS was talked about.

average_runner

the culture of deference wrote: »

We know that bertie and his lot were warned from 2000 about this. If we had decent politicians our country could have been a wonderful place to grow up and live in, instead we were run into the ground by a fanatical church, greedy incompetent fools and a weak population.

We will continue to slide downwards until at least 1 million are unemployed and 4 or 5 families are sharing a house. Many will die, anarchy will break out.

So over the top!!

RobbieTheRobber

the culture of deference wrote: »

We know that bertie and his lot were warned from 2000 about this. If we had decent politicians our country could have been a wonderful place to grow up and live in, instead we were run into the ground by a fanatical church, greedy incompetent fools and a weak population.

We will continue to slide downwards until at least 1 million are unemployed and 4 or 5 families are sharing a house. Many will die, anarchy will break out.

Four or five families to a house you say, is that just for warmth because that would leave a hell of a lot of empty houses in Ireland!

pjd435

The live register is 14.7% but unemployment is much higher than that. People on
People on C.E schemes are not on the live register, are considered working, but they are still being paid by the state.
People on full time fas place are not on the live register but they are getting paid by the state.
People whose stamps run, who then get means tested and are not intitled to to welfare payment because there partners work.
Self employed people or sole traders who loose there job or business are not intitled to welfare payments.
Unmarried mothers or lone parents are not on the live register but are still being paid by the state.
People who are off on the sick are not the live register but are still being paid by the state.
So there are 450,000 on the live register.
120,000 are doing fas courses just say 60,000 are full time.
30000 on CE schems
10000 lone parents
10000 on the sick
20000 who ran out of stamps or were not entitled.

So there are roughly 58000 peole out there who are not working or are on some sort of social welfare payment.

Then you have the 30000 or so students that are going to graduate in june.

Its paints a very stark picture for this country. We have 2.2 people of working age and 25% are not in employment and no sign of jobs on the horizon. We are only at the start of the begining. It will take a generation or 2 to get things right after the mess ff made of the country.

whiteonion

RichardAnd wrote: »

I think that Brain did what he honestly thought was right at the time. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and likely, the veracity of bailing out the banks will be debated for decades to come. Maybe it was wrong but who can really say what might have been.

I said from the beginning that the bank guarantee was total madness. I was proven right, It seems I'm always right.

eric hoone

Inquitus wrote: »

The endgame may not be reached for a year or more, but is Ireland as a country facing checkmate in 15moves or so?

Unemployment is rampant at 14.7%.
Growth is likely to be up to -1% this year.
The banks need another 20bn.
Even on the existing recovery plan we need to take 6bn more out of the economy.
The 6bn in cuts/taxes is based on growth targets we cannot meet, and to meet those savings targets it would need to be far far more.

The entire recovery plan is based on the premise of metrics we now haven't a hope in hell of meeting. The economy seems to be in a death spiral of increased taxes, weaker spending, requiring increased taxes etc etc.

What are the valid outcomes of this situation? Default? or further bailout?

Inq

Default, punt nua, competitiveness, recovery?
At least with a sh1te currency we could keep all the zeroes in our house prices

PeterIanStaker

I'd say they'll have to default, of course it'll be spun differently - won't be called a default they'll come up with some sort of euphemism people will swallow, just like they swallowed "bailout".

Maybe it would have been better to let Anglo collapse in 08 but the govt of the day wouldn't do it.

Weimar Ireland here we come.

p1akuw47h5r3it

Is this crisis worse than the 80's?

I know as citizens we are materially better off, but bar that?

ilovesleep

DanDan6592 wrote: »

Is this crisis worse than the 80's?

Yes

we had our own currency in the 80s and not as much personal debt.

Taxi Drivers

Inquitus wrote: »

The endgame may not be reached for a year or more, but is Ireland as a country facing checkmate in 15moves or so?

What are the valid outcomes of this situation? Default? or further bailout?

Today was another disaster. We can only hope it is the last. But maybe today hasn't brought us any closer to default. We actually might not have to borrow much of the €24 billion that is going down the banking plughole. What about this?

So all told, to get this €24 billion.

• €1.9 billion will come from the existing assets of Irish Life & Permanent
• €4.9 billion will come from burden sharing with subordinated bond holders
• €10 billion will come from the National Pension Reserve Fund
• with the final €7.2 billion coming from existing cash reserves.

DWCommuter

DanDan6592 wrote: »

Is this crisis worse than the 80's?

I know as citizens we are materially better off, but bar that?

Yes.

Because an awful lot of the material wealth is based on borrowings.

Sponge Bob

It is about an orderly default or a disorderly default...and whichever is more palatable to Europe when it happens....as in 2012 or 2013 latest. This one is gonna run

Mind you it has already run for precisely 2.5 years since late september 2008 has it not ???

dan_d

DanDan6592 wrote: »

Is this crisis worse than the 80's?

I know as citizens we are materially better off, but bar that?

People didn't have personal debt in the 80s. Huge mortgages etc.
So yes, it's worse.
Haven't a notion what'll happen, it's a world wide problem really. We've made things so complicated, and none of the "things" we've made really exist, they're all just numbers on a computer screen (stocks, funds, shares, debt, interest owed).....it's all got to come crashing down at some point. And then we can go back to bartering a cat for a loaf of bread and that kind of thing. (or maybe bread is worth a cow...anyone??)

Gumbo

dan_d wrote: »

People didn't have personal debt in the 80s. Huge mortgages etc.
So yes, it's worse.
Haven't a notion what'll happen, it's a world wide problem really. We've made things so complicated, and none of the "things" we've made really exist, they're all just numbers on a computer screen (stocks, funds, shares, debt, interest owed).....it's all got to come crashing down at some point. And then we can go back to bartering a cat for a loaf of bread and that kind of thing. (or maybe bread is worth a cow...anyone??)

once the bread is gone, its gone.
the cow will continue to give you some milk for a long time, and provide you with meat when its dead, so a cow has to be worth alot of bread