glanbia set milk price

whelan1

just wondering if any one has signed up to the glanbia manufacturing milk price deal, got a call from them thye other day,

Min

No, I won't be either, don't have a large milk quota. It is hard to know how milk will go over the coming years but I don't think it will go back to being as bad as 2009.
2010 price level probably more realistic.

whelan1

hard to know would like to know more before signing anything

EAMONNHEALY

How does the price on offer compare with recent and likely future milk prices?
r 2010, the average base price paid by Glanbia for manufacturing milk will be 27.86 c/litre. The base price was at its lowest in the first half of the year and has remained unchanged for seven months from May through to November 2010. See Table 1.

In 42 of the last 70 months (January 2005 to November 2010), CSO monthly milk price at 3.7% butterfat has been less than 28 c/litre including VAT. See Figure 1.

Despite continuing risk of cyclical fluctuation in milk price, medium term projections for milk price are good. At the 2010 National Dairy Conference, Marina Rebello of Rabobank spoke of ‘continued volatility but a mid term average milk price of around 29 to 30 c/litre’.

FAPRI projects that the 2011 milk price will be similar to that paid in 2010.

.

The scheme would also be attractive to medium to high cost producers who want to protect themselves against the risk of milk price falling back to 2009 levels. Low cost milk producers may feel that they can cope with 2009 type milk prices and look to maximise their profits at high milk prices.

Ultimately the decision is up to each individual milk supplier.

Table 1: Glanbia Monthly Base Price 2010 (excl. VAT)
Month
Base Price (cpl, excl. VAT)
% Supplied*
Jan

23.76

0.3

Feb

24.72

4.5

Mar

25.67

11.2

Apr

26.62

11.4

May

28.52

12.2

Jun

28.52

13.9

Jul

28.52

9.8

Aug

28.52

9.0

Sep

28.52

10.6

Oct

28.52

7.4

Nov

28.52

5.6

Dec*

28.52

4.3

Average Base Price 2010

27.86

*Dec. price assumed to remain unchanged









Manufacturing Milk (c/litre incl. VAT, 3.7% butterfat, CSO)

2005

27.3

2006

26.2

2007

33.5

2008

33.2

2009

22.9

Min

Got text from Glanbia.

Closing date tomorrow, likely to be over subscribed.

Bitten & Hisses

Starting to look like milk prices have peaked. Recent market prices for commoddities are starting to show reductions.

whelan1

i have 50/50 liquid and manufacturing, so i pput half of my manufacturing in to the scheme

Tipp Man

Put in application for 40% - man on the inside told us it was massively oversubscribed so upped it to 60%. Will be lucky to get 20-25% i would say

dar31

if you put a large % into the scheme this year, and it is rolled over on an on going basis every year then that large % from this year will come out of the scheme in 2015 just as quotas go, and probably a very volatile time.

how ever if a larger % is put in over the next two years this will help to carry you over the 2015 hump.

am i just dreaming or is there any thing to this..........!!

whelan1

got a call from dairies today wanting to know did i want to put more into this scheme , at the minute it is lower than the normal price being paid, what do other people think?

milkprofit

got a call today as well
I wont put any in I think price will strengeten
If A lot milk is put in now less chance of price going up
Glanbia customers obviously think price is going up so they want to fix at 28 c plus inflation

keep going

id say glanbia are like cattle agents the time to hold is when they are ringing you

whelan1

so whats the thinking now lads

milkprofit

Loosing at mom hope price goes backup quick

whelan1

had a rep here on friday, not goig to say where from:cool: he said 26cpl in august:eek: will bottom out at that- hope he's wrong

Farmer Pudsey

whelan1 wrote: »

had a rep here on friday, not goig to say where from:cool: he said 26cpl in august:eek: will bottom out at that- hope he's wrong

Are you hopimg it will go lower.....god you are a sucker for punishment

whelan1

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Are you hopimg it will go lower.....god you are a sucker for punishment

mmmm........... no

snowman707

whelan1 wrote: »

had a rep here on friday, not goig to say where from:cool: he said 26cpl in august:eek: will bottom out at that- hope he's wrong

whelan1 wrote: »

mmmm........... no

i heard 25 but most are hinting (or is it hoping) 28,

TBH i thought milk price would slump last back end & it held up, wonder if it did would they have hacked up the feed prices like they did ?

maxxuumman

The drop in value of the Euro that has happened over the last few weeks is bound to help the price of milk on two fronts, it should stop the big fall in milk price in Europe and input prices will be shoved up.

A cooling of the milk price now may not be a bad thing... long term. The last thing that is needed is a big high going into 2015. If it is very high in 2013-2014, the fall in 2015 would be crippling.

whelan1

apparently new zealand dumped aload of milk on the markets at the end of their season and this is the main reason for the slump

Timmaay

Yep I heard that also, that is another advantage of having one large processor like Fonterra in NZ, you can flex your muscle and influence the markets in your favour!

Timmaay

maxxuumman wrote: »

If it is very high in 2013-2014, the fall in 2015 would be crippling.

Hmm I don't think post quota will have any influence at all in terms of prices, milk price is dictated by the world price, and the quota only effects Europe which is not going to turn around in 2015 and ramp up production like Ireland hopes to.

The only price effects that no quota have here will be the lack of processing capacity, and this June peak problem.

maxxuumman

Timmaay wrote: »

maxxuumman wrote: »

If it is very high in 2013-2014, the fall in 2015 would be crippling.

Hmm I don't think post quota will have any influence at all in terms of prices, milk price is dictated by the world price, and the quota only effects Europe which is not going to turn around in 2015 and ramp up production like Ireland hopes to.

The only price effects that no quota have here will be the lack of processing capacity, and this June peak problem.

Sorry for being blunt, but are you kidding me. Do you think we are the only country planning to expand post 2015. And if you think we are, can you explain the price fall this year.
Despite the fact that Teagasc and the IFA and their likes have been jumping up and down for the last few years about the quota free environment, they forgot to take into account that we are not the only country in Europe planning to expand. We have Germany, Denmark and other countries quietly planning to expand. Even friends of mIne in the UK are seeing alot of plans for expansion, major expansion on some large dairy farms.
Look at what Arla did last week.
Even Ireland on its own, if we hit the Food 2020 targets will increase Europes milk production by over 2%.
It's a thin line between feast and famine.

Don't worry about peak May/June production, if there is money to be made at milk there should be plenty of processors capable of investing to handle this milk. It's lack of confidence in milk that is sending the processors back to us for the investment in extra stainless steel.

whelan1

anyone hear any indication on the may milk price yet?

td5man

whelan1 wrote: »

anyone hear any indication on the may milk price yet?

I'm sure we'll find out in the next couple of weeks supposed to be 3c/l less than april

Viewtodiefor

td5man wrote: »

whelan1 wrote: »

anyone hear any indication on the may milk price yet?

I'm sure we'll find out in the next couple of weeks supposed to be 3c/l less than april

Spoke to a Glanbia man today and he said 2 cent cut for may! I'd say it's a given. On the positive hopefully it will take the heat outa all the hype of dairy producers etc and people getting into milk.

maxxuumman

Fonterra went very very well today

whelan1

maxxuumman wrote: »

Fonterra went very very well today

really?

maxxuumman

whelan1 wrote: »

maxxuumman wrote: »

Fonterra went very very well today

really?

13.5% rise, and 21% on SMP.

With the euro value and those auction prices, it will be bad tack for the coops to pull 2-3 cent, this month.

Viewtodiefor

maxxuumman wrote: »

whelan1 wrote: »

maxxuumman wrote: »

Fonterra went very very well today

really?

13.5% rise, and 21% on SMP.

With the euro value and those auction prices, it will be bad tack for the coops to pull 2-3 cent, this month.

It will be interesting to see what they do! I still reckon 2cent cut. They will not want to be seen holding the prices.

bob charles

and what about the other 70% of the commodity that fonterra don't trade. They were singing from a different hymn sheet not so long ago

Tipp Man

They will definately cut the price I think - how much is the question.

They might do 2 cent and say we went easy it could have been 3 or they might go 3 cent and ignore the moaning

whelan1

Tipp Man wrote: »

They will definately cut the price I think - how much is the question.

They might do 2 cent and say we went easy it could have been 3 or they might go 3 cent and ignore the moaning

fookers! you where right 2.5cpl

kevthegaff

Any word on arrabawn?

leg wax

whelan1 wrote: »

fookers! you where right 2.5cpl

don't start that crap now whelan:D look at all the monies you got for your calves,jesus you were not long forgetting that:p.

bob charles

leg wax wrote: »

don't start that crap now whelan:D look at all the monies you got for your calves,jesus you were not long forgetting that:p.

hard to find anything to top a moaning dairy farmer

td5man

kevthegaff wrote: »

Any word on arrabawn?

Lakeland 1.5-2c cut

milkprofit

Are Glanbia more interested in spiting co-op and plc assets than selling our milk products at top price
They will tell what mess they have made in the next weak or two
Why are they not talking to Frontera

snowman707

kevthegaff wrote: »

Any word on arrabawn?

to morrow i think

with arrabawn no news usually means bad news

whelan1

my dad said he heard an interview with someone from the icmsa this morning on the radio, he said it was the worst interview he ever heard:cool:

MANSFIELD

If the cuts continue at the rate there going atm. Soon we won't have to worry about further cuts - we will be getting 0.0 cpl for our milk.

snowman707

Just checked bank a/c on line , May milk cheque in.. won't have statement 'til next collection


NOT HAPPY :mad: :mad:

whelan1

check your glanbia milk statements on line theres a mistake on mine, difference of nearly 2k of total on statement and amount in my bank account

whelan1

snowman707 wrote: »

Just checked bank a/c on line , May milk cheque in.. won't have statement 'til next collection


NOT HAPPY :mad: :mad:

so is this going to happen every year when new zealand dump their milk at the end of their year?

5live

whelan1 wrote: »

so is this going to happen every year when new zealand dump their milk at the end of their year?

Yes:pac:

whelan1

interesting reading in the farmers journal editorial on page 2 by matt dempsey about glanbia

st1979

whelan1 wrote: »

interesting reading in the farmers journal editorial on page 2 by matt dempsey about glanbia

Yea I reckon he was talking a lot of sense. This notion that if we get rid of the plc that an all Ireland processing co-op will become a reality is not a sure thing with dairygold wanting to do their own thing etc. We are in a pretty good situation at the moment with massive equity built up in our business. We do need to harness that equity for our benefit, but I don't think changing the ownership structure to a co-op is going to answer to all our prayers like some seem to believe.
If glanbia plc is only willing to invest in businesses that give a return of 12%+. Then why are we as a co-op so keen to invest in a 5% margin business. Surely we as the co-op should be aiming to maximise returns to all shareholders.
I think its about time the co-op had its own independant board. As this situation where the same farmer board members sit on both co-op and plc board is like a dog trying to serve 2 masters.