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Does anyone believe what joe bastardi says about severel future winters in europe?

  • 25-03-2011 8:24pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭


    I sure hope so:D:D
    This is the article he posted last september before the severe cold of november and december..


    Joe Bastardi: “Future Shock…Brutal Winters Ahead from 2013 On…Now Into A Major La Nina”
    By P Gosselin on 10. September 2010

    Joe Bastardi predicts shock cold in the years ahead.
    That’s what Joe says in his latest video. The PDO is now going into its cold phase and the current La Nina is going to be a bear – and quite possibly a polar bear at that.

    The Pacific, the primary global climate driver, has been in its warm cycle since the late 1970s, and that’s coming to an end. That period was dominated by El Ninos, which kept the planet on the warm side. But now the Pacific has flipped and we’re now entering a cool phase, where La Ninas are expected to dominate.

    I disagree with Joe when he says the brutal winters are going to start in 2013. In my view they’ve already started! So If Joe thinks the last couple winters have been mild, I sure hate to see what “brutal” is going to look like!

    Joe thinks that brutal winters follow deep La Ninas. And because he thinks the next 2 years will be dominated by a major La Nina, then cold winters are expected to strike beginning in 2012-2013.

    He’s getting bold with his predictions. But if he winds up being right, then the AGW theorists and their half-baked models are history. Joe says in the video:

    Here we go. We spike this up. And now we’re into a major La Nina that’s going to last for the next couple of years. When we come out of that, there’s really good reason to believe the winter of 2012-13, and perhaps beyond, is going to be quite cold.

    Then there are the wild cards, says Joe: solar activity and volcanoes, which impact the ENSO. Joe also mentions how the current La Nina has so far come on faster and harder than anything he can remember. You can see what he means looking at the following graphic:

    Comparing this La Nina to the last one, this one is in a big hurry, and is shaping up to be a deep one. That all of this is occurring during a very slow solar cycle may be just a coincidence, but enough scientists are out there yelling “heads up!”

    I myself am buying extra long-johns this fall for the months and years ahead. Last year’s pairs are already worn out.

    I really hope hes right- i think this could be true sure weve gotten a kinda bad winter in 2008-2009in february...severe in 2009-2010...nd a severe nov and dec in 2010-2011- i think were going to have severe cold winters now for a long time to come- scientists are now saying this because of global warming :D sunspots,low solar activity,la nina nd a few other things. He was right about this winter bein cold so hes probs right bout next yr..hopefully :rolleyes: but how come jan,feb and march were fairly mild nd then we got a severe nov and dec...that was weird arent jan nd feb supposed to be coldest.
    SO what do you all think????:D

    oh p.s i meant severe winters in future in title not 'severel'


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I sure hope so:D:D
    This is the article he posted last september before the severe cold of november and december..


    Joe Bastardi: “Future Shock…Brutal Winters Ahead from 2013 On…Now Into A Major La Nina”
    By P Gosselin on 10. September 2010

    Joe Bastardi predicts shock cold in the years ahead.
    That’s what Joe says in his latest video. The PDO is now going into its cold phase and the current La Nina is going to be a bear – and quite possibly a polar bear at that.

    The Pacific, the primary global climate driver, has been in its warm cycle since the late 1970s, and that’s coming to an end. That period was dominated by El Ninos, which kept the planet on the warm side. But now the Pacific has flipped and we’re now entering a cool phase, where La Ninas are expected to dominate.

    I disagree with Joe when he says the brutal winters are going to start in 2013. In my view they’ve already started! So If Joe thinks the last couple winters have been mild, I sure hate to see what “brutal” is going to look like!

    Joe thinks that brutal winters follow deep La Ninas. And because he thinks the next 2 years will be dominated by a major La Nina, then cold winters are expected to strike beginning in 2012-2013.

    He’s getting bold with his predictions. But if he winds up being right, then the AGW theorists and their half-baked models are history. Joe says in the video:

    Here we go. We spike this up. And now we’re into a major La Nina that’s going to last for the next couple of years. When we come out of that, there’s really good reason to believe the winter of 2012-13, and perhaps beyond, is going to be quite cold.

    Then there are the wild cards, says Joe: solar activity and volcanoes, which impact the ENSO. Joe also mentions how the current La Nina has so far come on faster and harder than anything he can remember. You can see what he means looking at the following graphic:

    Comparing this La Nina to the last one, this one is in a big hurry, and is shaping up to be a deep one. That all of this is occurring during a very slow solar cycle may be just a coincidence, but enough scientists are out there yelling “heads up!”

    I myself am buying extra long-johns this fall for the months and years ahead. Last year’s pairs are already worn out.

    I really hope hes right- i think this could be true sure weve gotten a kinda bad winter in 2008-2009in february...severe in 2009-2010...nd a severe nov and dec in 2010-2011- i think were going to have severe cold winters now for a long time to come- scientists are now saying this because of global warming :D sunspots,low solar activity,la nina nd a few other things. He was right about this winter bein cold so hes probs right bout next yr..hopefully :rolleyes: but how come jan,feb and march were fairly mild nd then we got a severe nov and dec...that was weird arent jan nd feb supposed to be coldest.
    SO what do you all think????:D

    oh p.s i meant severe winters in future in title not 'severel'
    doesn't Joe usually do predictions for N. America? are the ones you've quoted above for Europe/Northern Europe?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    If it means [so far] that we will actually have seasons in this country, then I'm all for it.

    I enjoyed this winter gone, it was beautifully contained inside the 'winter' months and the weather is warming up nicely [as expected actually but not experienced for a few long years until maybe last year].

    I am looking forward to a few glorious days in summer, I did enjoy one in 2010 ~ and enjoy is me having the time off and the price of a gallon of petrol and a 1/2 a larger and just drive out into the country not actually going anywhere and soaking up the rays. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    yes joe bastardi does do forecasts for america but when he worked for accuweather he posted blogs and forecasts just for europe- but he has resigned form accuweather now nd does blogs nd forecasts for america again on weatherbell.com
    Yes fizzycist- this was posted by him during his time in accuweather when he was the european long range weather forecaster for europe and northern europe- he posted this just before the severe cold of nove and dec :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    gbee wrote: »
    If it means [so far] that we will actually have seasons in this country, then I'm all for it.

    I enjoyed this winter gone, it was beautifully contained inside the 'winter' months and the weather is warming up nicely [as expected actually but not experienced for a few long years until maybe last year].

    I am looking forward to a few glorious days in summer, I did enjoy one in 2010 ~ and enjoy is me having the time off and the price of a gallon of petrol and a 1/2 a larger and just drive out into the country not actually going anywhere and soaking up the rays. :)


    Won't be happening this year then . . .:P not at nearly €7 a gallon . ..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    The guy is another puffed up self publicist, not to be taken seriously.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    mike65 wrote: »
    The guy is another puffed up self publicist, not to be taken seriously.

    Try doing a long range winter forecast for europe 2011/2012 yourself before the summer, before making a stupid statement like that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    While I wouldn't go as far as what Mike65 said, I do think Joe B's forecasts are over-hyped.
    He got Europe wrong this winter. La Nina has been fading quite fast over the last few weeks, and his hopes for the northern hemisphere sea ice this winter have proven to be a little optimistic.
    I certainly wouldn't go getting excited over these thoughts of extreme cold.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    I think joe b's forecasts are good- he was right bout jan and feb- . emm but i hadnt heard of joe b before the november cold spell nd would like to know what his original winter forecast like in october was for the winter. everyones saying he was wrong bout the pedictions for the start of the winter-so what did he predict??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I think joe b's forecasts are good- he was right bout jan and feb- . emm but i hadnt heard of joe b before the november cold spell nd would like to know what his original winter forecast like in october was for the winter. everyones saying he was wrong bout the pedictions for the start of the winter-so what did he predict??

    Details of JB's various forecasts for winter 2010/11 dating from May 2010 onwards are in this thread - Enjoy!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    He's just a more detailed version of the Donegal postman. Predicting a cold winter during la Nina and a quite sun period is about as hard as predicting Germany will be good in a penalty shoot out.

    (/isn't he a climate change denier?, some say thats why he got his marching orders from accuweather)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    mike65 wrote: »
    He's just a more detailed version of the Donegal postman. Predicting a cold winter during la Nina and a quite sun period is about as hard as predicting Germany will be good in a penalty shoot out.

    (/isn't he a climate change denier?, some say thats why he got his marching orders from accuweather)

    Denier = holocaust.

    Withdraw!!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Withdraw!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,516 ✭✭✭Outkast_IRE


    Nobody can predict that sort of things but as usual if hes wrong people will forget about it but if hes right he will be seen as amazing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,380 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Joe, in years gone by, was frequently predicting cold winters for us which sadly never came to pass. It could be if you keep predicting the same thing you'll eventually be right and people may then tend to forget your past failures. This seems to be the case with the likes of Piers Corbyn, who has been lauded over the last couple of years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    maybe ur ight...but we can hope and my hope is for the winters in ireland to get longer and colder from here on in with cold snaps galore from november to april :D:D:D i think we will- sure we had 3 in a row colder than normal to very cold winters in a row nd lots of news reports were saying severe cold winters in future for europe so i am sure we will have more snowy winters in future. whos with me?:D:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Joe B is useless IMO.

    I don't rate him and generally don't rate forecast attempts past 1 month.

    No need for scientific explanation!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    The use of offensive names especially to win an argument or to induce rejection or condemnation (as of a person or project) without objective consideration of the facts


    Look it up sometime. Its called "name calling".

    Really lowers the level of "intelligence" which is an umbrella term describing a property of the mind comprehending related abilities, such as the capacities for abstract thought, reasoning, planning and problem solving, the use of language, and to learn.

    None of which seem to be demonstrated in this thread recenlty.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    alright touchy,what r u on about :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Kippure wrote: »
    The use of offensive names especially to win an argument or to induce rejection or condemnation (as of a person or project) without objective consideration of the facts


    Look it up sometime. Its called "name calling".

    Really lowers the level of "intelligence" which is an umbrella term describing a property of the mind comprehending related abilities, such as the capacities for abstract thought, reasoning, planning and problem solving, the use of language, and to learn.

    None of which seem to be demonstrated in this thread recenlty.

    Holy sh1t thats a mouthfull:P.... I don't see much name calling in this thread tbh... In my opinion joe gets it far more wrong than right, but in fairness to joe not many forecasters do... Lrf is very hit and miss and not quiet an exact science yet hence why i personally don't pay much attention to them


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,380 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    ..but we can hope and my hope is for the winters in ireland to get longer and colder from here on in with cold snaps galore from november to april :D:D:D i think we will- sure we had 3 in a row colder than normal to very cold winters in a row nd lots of news reports were saying severe cold winters in future for europe so i am sure we will have more snowy winters in future. whos with me?:D:D

    I am:D I like your thinking. :D:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    yes :) but back to the point , does anyone have any useful input or actual information to input into this thread ??;):p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,380 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    yes :) but back to the point , does anyone have any useful input or actual information to input into this thread ??;):p


    I think M.T. mentioned a while back the Sun has woken up somewhat, but that there will be a latency period before the increased solar activity begins to take effect, so the recent solar minimum period may reach its peak over the course of next two winters. There is a growing body of opinion that the low solar activity is mainly responsible for the unusally cold times we've experienced over the last two winters.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,000 ✭✭✭wonderboysam


    forgive my ignorance, how come you all seem to want freezing winters?? If they continue I'm off to oz


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    duh:p because snow is quite possibly the best thing to have ever happened ever in the history of the world:):D;):p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    anyone any news? :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    come on lets not let this thread die please:( i like this thread and would like to hear more peoples views and if they think future winters will be colder :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Honestly, leave it a few months, round september, when we get a miserable wet week everyone will be more than happy to talk about it!


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