Gold Cup - immediate reaction

Morgans

When I get a chance to look at it in greater detail I cna revise this but immediate reactions:

Kempes - didnt jump well enough, should win plenty of races in Ireland but not good enough at this level. Doesnt seem to like ditches and slower pace will help him. Talented and a good future but not at Cheltenham (i think)

Pandorama - Needs a bog to get involved at this level. Ran a good race regardless and should be favourite for the Lexus and Hennessey next year. Again will hope for rain before cheltenham next year.

China Rock - Great race and loves the good ground. The next level below. Grand National type on good ground.

Tidal Bay - Quirky, running on when too late. Unreliable.

Weird Al - Overrated and beaten early.

Imperial Commander - Stable bang out of form and went out like a light coming down the hill. Maybe injured. Would have needed to improve to beat the winner on last years performance, but not his form. Not sure he will win again this year.

What A Friend - great run, always more likely to place than to win, plenty fo more fun with the horse to come. One of his going days.

Kauto Star - Age caught up with a wonderful horse. Shame we didnt get that confrontation with Denman three years ago, with both at their peak. Great brave performance and looked the winner at the top of the hill. Stunning animal. Privilege to have seen him race at his best. Bet365 Gold Cup would be interesting but owes no one anything and retirement on a soft win somewhere would be fantastic.

Denman - Another stupendous performance from the horse. Again, best days behind him and unlucky to bump into such a good winner. A tribute to connections and brilliantly trained. A fantastic jumper and a great animal. Deserved a second Gold Cup for his great performances.

Long Run - Whisper it, but maybe maybe better than the Nicholls duo. To do what he has done at 6 is amazing and looked nothing of a fluke about it. Jumps gallops stays ground indifferent. Clearly the best horse today and every chance of progressing past the marks of DEnman and Kauto. Could be the best we've seen and in great hands. Managed to start next years Ante Post portfolio with 6/1 about next year (not allowed what I wanted on it). Gold Cups take huge amount out of winners but it strikes me as being way way too big, especially with the RSA form looking below the very best. He is everything that a champion should be.

Nulty

Thing about Pandorama is he'll never beat Long Run. Long Run wouldn't be put out by a bog so Pandorama would need to be a stone better on Soft. Not out of the question but unlikely that Long Run couldn't find enough in that ground to see him off

handsomecake

Morgans wrote: »

When I get a chance to look at it in greater detail I cna revise this but immediate reactions:

Kempes - didnt jump well enough, should win plenty of races in Ireland but not good enough at this level. Doesnt seem to like ditches and slower pace will help him. Talented and a good future but not at Cheltenham (i think)

Pandorama - Needs a bog to get involved at this level. Ran a good race regardless and should be favourite for the Lexus and Hennessey next year. Again will hope for rain before cheltenham next year.

China Rock - Great race and loves the good ground. The next level below. Grand National type on good ground.

Tidal Bay - Quirky, running on when too late. Unreliable.

Weird Al - Overrated and beaten early.

Imperial Commander - Stable bang out of form and went out like a light coming down the hill. Maybe injured. Would have needed to improve to beat the winner on last years performance, but not his form. Not sure he will win again this year.

What A Friend - great run, always more likely to place than to win, plenty fo more fun with the horse to come. One of his going days.

Kauto Star - Age caught up with a wonderful horse. Shame we didnt get that confrontation with Denman three years ago, with both at their peak. Great brave performance and looked the winner at the top of the hill. Stunning animal. Privilege to have seen him race at his best. Bet365 Gold Cup would be interesting but owes no one anything and retirement on a soft win somewhere would be fantastic.

Denman - Another stupendous performance from the horse. Again, best days behind him and unlucky to bump into such a good winner. A tribute to connections and brilliantly trained. A fantastic jumper and a great animal. Deserved a second Gold Cup for his great performances.

Long Run - Whisper it, but maybe maybe better than the Nicholls duo. To do what he has done at 6 is amazing and looked nothing of a fluke about it. Jumps gallops stays ground indifferent. Clearly the best horse today and every chance of progressing past the marks of DEnman and Kauto. Could be the best we've seen and in great hands. Managed to start next years Ante Post portfolio with 6/1 about next year (not allowed what I wanted on it). Gold Cups take huge amount out of winners but it strikes me as being way way too big, especially with the RSA form looking below the very best. He is everything that a champion should be.

bar weapons amnesty and burton port, long run should beat everything easily next year and for years to come

Morgans

Weapons Amnesty is a delicious prospect, and its fingers crossed that he gets back to his best. Of course, Pandorama and him had a great race the christmas before last. I'd be hugely surprised if Henderson thinks Burton Port could trouble Long Run - I dont think Long Run ran his best race in the RSA last year.

I Kauto has been amazing over the years. I was never more impressed with him than when he won at Haydock way back. I cant remember being more impressed by a Gold Cup winner than this one.

A fu*king stunning race. An amazing advert for the sport.

meriwether

Morgans wrote: »

Weapons Amnesty is a delicious prospect, and its fingers crossed that he gets back to his best. Of course, Pandorama and him had a great race the christmas before last. I'd be hugely surprised if Henderson thinks Burton Port could trouble Long Run - I dont think Long Run ran his best race in the RSA last year.

I Kauto has been amazing over the years. I was never more impressed with him than when he won at Haydock way back. I cant remember being more impressed by a Gold Cup winner than this one.

A fu*king stunning race. An amazing advert for the sport.

A wonderful day to be a horse racing fan.

smartaform

Great race and big well done to Long Run, Waley-Cohen rode the perfect race..

Personally was going for Kauto, thought he ran like a champ, probably got there too early, but he was travelling too well not to be there..
Denman as well, super effort, honest, the winner was just too good.

Imperial commander ran as i thought he would, his prep was over the shop with his injury and didnt think he'd get near them today...

DB10

Kempes was very disappointing for all the pre race talk about him.

Not a big race horse at all.

WHIP IT!

Morgans... Kauto Star, Denman at their peak and Long Run... three-horse Gold Cup... who wins?

Morgans

I don't know. Really don't know. I think Long Run has the scope to surpass them all. He doesn't have to improve a lot on what he has done already, but he probably didnt quite do it today. For a 6yo, its phenomenal.

Will need to a have a look at the figures but What A Friend may have been a few lenghts too close this year to give him a bigger figure than Imperial Commander or Denman from last year.

RichieLawlor

182 RPR for Long Run,

dring

Great race, Long Run actually jumped poorly today, lost ground at several fences including the second last, was under pressure at the 3f pole but showed what a great engine he has with his last 2f. Could conceivably at the top for several years but a look at recent past winners tells you that it doesn't always work out like that http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheltenham_Gold_Cup
Kicking King for example won the GC at 7, the previous KG and then got injured winning the next KG and was never again at this level.
Kauto Star deserves all the plaudits as he has now won 2 GC, been placed in two more as well as winning 4KG and two Tingle Creeks

WHIP IT!

dring wrote: »

Great race, Long Run actually jumped poorly today, lost ground at several fences including the second last, was under pressure at the 3f pole but showed what a great engine he has with his last 2f. Could conceivably at the top for several years but a look at recent past winners tells you that it doesn't always work out like that http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheltenham_Gold_Cup
Kicking King for example won the GC at 7, the previous KG and then got injured winning the next KG and was never again at this level.
Kauto Star deserves all the plaudits as he has now won 2 GC, been placed in two more as well as winning 4KG and two Tingle Creeks

Yep, as much as I like Long Run - he has a long way to go to emulate this.

Morgans

All being well with the horse, the King Georges and Gold Cups that he will face in the future are very unlikely to be as strong as what he faced this year.

mdwexford

Cant disagree with much of your write up but Long Run has a long way to go to match Kauto Star who is the greatest ive seen but he may well be up to it. 6yo winning like that was amazing.

RichieLawlor

Connections plan to race Long Run at Aintree and Punchestown and possibly Auteuil.

A proper champion, Campaigned accordingly rather than wrapped in cotton wool.

A few more runs won't bother him considering he ran 9 times last season

UrbanSea

What really took me was the cracking race What A Friend ran.
Great to see Long Run win.

handsomecake

handsomecake wrote: »

bar weapons amnesty and burton port, long run should beat everything easily next year and for years to come

I really hope big bucks takes him on next year. I think we will almost definitely see him go chasing now that kauto and denman are getting past it.

mdwexford

I think there isnt a hope of Big Bucks seeing a fence again on a racecourse.

HigginsJ

Agreed on Big Bucks. Not a hope of him going for the Gold Cup. If Grand Crus went chasing he might go for the Champion Hurdle for a challenge. Thats the only chance that he will be in any race other than the World Hurdle.

RichieLawlor

HigginsJ wrote: »

If Grand Crus went chasing he might go for the Champion Hurdle for a challenge. Thats the only chance that he will be in any race other than the World Hurdle.

Lol

HigginsJ

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Lol

More possible than him going for Gold Cup!!

RichieLawlor

HigginsJ wrote: »

More possible than him going for Gold Cup!!

Wrong.

Nicholls has already discussed him going back over fences and had mentioned a crack at the Gold Cup although it may never happen.

The Champion Hurdle talk is ludicrous. As good as he is he would probably struggle to finish in the top half of the field in a Champion.

gscully

Does anyone else think that Sam Thomas didn't do Denman justice in that race? The horse ran a cracker on less than ideal ground, but perhaps would've been a lot closer to the winner if ridden properly.

After the Hennessy, Diamond Harry's trainer conceded that they probably gained twelve lengths on Denman because he went around the outside all the way. Again, in the Gold Cup, Thomas took the longest possible route for Denman, while Ruby correctly took the inside-line for Kauto Star. Just how many lengths did Denman lose? If you look at the overhead, turning into the straight, Denman has just passed Kauto Star, but has to go so wide that he straightens up half a length down again.

Maybe there's a reason for it. Maybe Denman can't handle sharper turns and is kept out of trouble, but for me it denied the horse a really good crack at winning.

Not taking anything from Long Run who was brilliant and is here to stay.

HigginsJ

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Wrong.

Nicholls has already discussed him going back over fences and had mentioned a crack at the Gold Cup although it may never happen.

The Champion Hurdle talk is ludicrous. As good as he is he would probably struggle to finish in the top half of the field in a Champion.

To be fair there is no chance of either of us being right by the sounds of this.

18th March 2011 Big Buck's just Awesome! Big Buck's was undoubtedly the star of the show at Cheltenham yesterday taking the Grade 1 Ladbrokes World Hurdle for a record third time in as many years surpassing the achievement of the great Inglis Drever who took the same race three times but in a four year period having missed a year through injury. Big Buck's latest victory made it Eleven out of Eleven over Hurdles since his last fence Hennessy blunder in 2008. Although Ruby was quite critical of himself in the closing stages, I thought he gave the horse a tremendous ride having him positioned superbly throughout the contest. We will do all we can to keep Big Buck's fit and well and bring him back for a fourth attempt at The World Hurdle in 2012.

hucklebuck

Very decent assessment Morgans.

Regarding Long Run I won't be whispering anything, ROARING it. The horse is an absolute machine and I would not be surprised (dare I say it) if he achieves close to 200 :eek:.

He absolutely clattered two fences on the first circuit and as high as a regard as I hold him in I thought he would do well to make the top four, if Yogi and Sam can iron out the errors he could be anything.

Only realised his sire is Cadoudal, yes that sire who sired Big Bucks and The Nightingale amongst others. I had The Nightingale in my ten to follow but after finding out his half brothers are the lads with bottomless cruising speed I may well have a big smash into him in some Ante Post market.

I think poor auld Pandorama gets a bad rap, he needs soft ground and won't be the top tier but I thought he did well, doesn't seem to like the ground and Long Run sandwiched him onto the rail and Carberry was forced to take a hard pull to get him out of there.

Now from what I've read its looks like big bucks wont be going chasing but I'd say that's down to the owner as I've heard Nicholls say he would love to be allowed to send him over fences again.

Its a shame really you would think the owner would like to take a shot a the gold the cup rather than a less prestigious hurdle race. If he stood up he would surely be a match for long run. It would be some race.

mdwexford

People do know Big Bucks has ran before over fences right.

He has the best part of 25lbs to find on what hes shown over fences to match Long Run.

3 time World Hurdle winner doesnt automatically mean Gold Cup winner in waiting.

UrbanSea

I'd be more than willing to bet he's improved about 20 pounds over hurdles since.

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'd be more than willing to bet he's improved about 20 pounds over hurdles since.

Iris' Gift was a 170+ hurdler but didn't take to fences.

And BB already proved he doesn't like jumping so I wouldn't risk it anyway

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

What really took me was the cracking race What A Friend ran.
Great to see Long Run win.

What slightly concerns me with all the euphoria surrounding this race is the relatively close proximity of what a friend in 4th and the pessimist in me suspects Long Run's performance is been overhyped (and the OR), forget the fact that it was emotionally brilliant because you had two of the all time greats coming up against the new super horse and look a little deeper, while I have no doubt if he continues to improve hes jumping as in fairness he has done he will in time reach the mid to high 180's, an OR of 181 was too high for that performance IMO.

As for the suggestion he may in time reach an OR of 200, please take a step back, a few deep breaths and think about what your saying, do you actually realise what an OR of 200 would mean??

hucklebuck

premierstone wrote: »

What slightly concerns me with all the euphoria surrounding this race is the relatively close proximity of what a friend in 4th and the pessimist in me suspects Long Run's performance is been overhyped (and the OR), forget the fact that it was emotionally brilliant because you had two of the all time greats coming up against the new super horse and look a little deeper, while I have no doubt if he continues to improve hes jumping as in fairness he has done he will in time reach the mid to high 180's, an OR of 181 was too high for that performance IMO.

As for the suggestion he may in time reach an OR of 200, please take a step back, a few deep breaths and think about what your saying, do you actually realise what an OR of 200 would mean??

You need to start reading stuff properly premier, close to does not mean exactly(I think 195+ is very attainable) and yes I am well aware that this would put him into the top 3. Kauto's highest rating as a 6 year old was 176 after his 06 King George, Long Run got 179 already and it's only March, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can improve 20lbs between now and his peak. As I stated on another thread he hit two and was guessy at one.

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

You need to start reading stuff properly premier, close to does not mean exactly(I think 195+ is very attainable) and yes I am well aware that this would put him into the top 3. Kauto's highest rating as a 6 year old was 176 after his 06 King George, Long Run got 179 already and it's only March, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can improve 20lbs between now and his peak. As I stated on another thread he hit two and was guessy at one.

To get a rating that high Long Run would have to shoulder big weights in a handicap and smash the field.

He won't. So he won't. DUCY

premierstone

hucklebuck wrote: »

You need to start reading stuff properly premier, close to does not mean exactly(I think 195+ is very attainable) and yes I am well aware that this would put him into the top 3. Kauto's highest rating as a 6 year old was 176 after his 06 King George, Long Run got 179 already and it's only March, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he can improve 20lbs between now and his peak. As I stated on another thread he hit two and was guessy at one.

As a 6 year old Kauto had only 5 chase starts ( at this time of the year) Long Run has had 10 you are not comparing like with like. As I already alluded to but maybe you didnt read it properly I think the 179 is particularly generous tbh, it has failen to take into account the career graphs of those in 2nd and 3rd, the fact the Gold Cup has never in recent memory been run on ground so firm, and the close proximity of What a Friend in 4th, personally I would have given Long Run an OR of 176/177.

Nulty

Kempes flop has Mullins stumped

Willie Mullins remains at a loss to explain the poor display from Kempes in last Friday's Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Having won the Irish Hennessey in February, Mullins' eight-year-old was quietly fancied for the blue riband event but was never in the hunt, eventually being pulled up with four fences still to jump.

"I think he's all right, but we're just getting the vet to have a look at him," said the champion trainer.

"He was never going at any stage and I'm trying to figure out what was wrong.

"Whether I put the tongue-tie on wrongly or whether the girths were too tight - he just never seemed happy from when he jumped off.

Link

Might get a price about him if the goes to Punchestown

mdwexford

Ehh hes crap, pretty simple to explain.

Morgans

Vet should diagnose him with beefandsalmonitis. Didnt like jumping at that pace on good ground. Pretty simple.

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

Vet should diagnose him with beefandsalmonella. Didnt like jumping at that pace on good ground. Pretty simple.

I think this works better but don't let me put words in your mouth.

(You'd never get a job with the tabloids :P)

Morgans

Nulty. Ok so I may be drunk but that was beautiful. Kudos.

Nulty

Nick Mordin says the ground was dangerously quick at the festival. Blames it for so many gold Cup horses falling by the wayside - Pandorama and China Rock especially. He calls it (paraphrasing) "firm ground" for the Gold Cup. Can't argue too much, track record was broken so it was definitely 'very very' good ground.

EDIT:
Suggests reasons for Tidal Bay and Imperial Commander under performing due to the surface too.

mdwexford

Times were mad fast so must have been pretty fast ground alright.

Morgans

Not too sure where the argument was earlier, but I think Pandorama's owners wouldn't run if they were given the chance to turn time back. Fiveforthree out for 18 months as well.

UrbanSea

Morgans wrote: »

Not too sure where the argument was earlier, but I think Pandorama's owners wouldn't run if they were given the chance to turn time back. Fiveforthree out for 18 months as well.

I read that,didn't realise it was so long though.Wouldn't be surprised if he's retired.

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

To get a rating that high Long Run would have to shoulder big weights in a handicap and smash the field.

He won't. So he won't. DUCY

Kautos King George got 193 and it's not a handicap, so Long run could rout the field in a King George and achieve a very high rating too.

DUCY?

Premier I never said I agreed with you on your 179 being too high assessment, it's possible Denman regressed by 7lbs since the Hennessy run(maybe not as much as I thought he ran his race) and Long Run beat him 7 lengths which means 179 would be about right.

yaboya1

Morgans wrote: »

Not too sure where the argument was earlier, but I think Pandorama's owners wouldn't run if they were given the chance to turn time back. Fiveforthree out for 18 months as well.

Not sure what relevance the Fiveforthree absence has to do with anything here?

hucklebuck

yaboya1 wrote: »

Not sure what relevance the Fiveforthree absence has to do with anything here?

Just in relation to the horses injuries which may have been down to hard ground.

32_4_1

denman could be pitted against a tgv and he'd still be there or there abouts. just like the old warhorse hardy eustace. more machine than animal

sonnky

Anyone think Long Run could be a bit of a Masterminded case, class at a young age(peaked early) and then fell from grace like a ton of bricks.

premierstone

sonnky wrote: »

Anyone think Long Run could be a bit of a Masterminded case, class at a young age(peaked early) and then fell from grace like a ton of bricks.

Very possible indeed, and he's not exactly your typical 6 yr old he has had quite a lot of high class racing already, on a sidenote Masterminded didnt exactly fall like a tonne of bricks, he has still put in some excellent performances since 'that' race, just he set the bar so damn high.

bit of a bogey

Whilst I agree that it is unlikely Long run will still be performing in the same class at the age of 10, I do think that Long Run has not hit his peak. I think he's still going to improve and dont know why he isint going to Punchestown. Next year at Kempton he will be even more impressive-if that is possible........