the trainbairn cheltenham 2011 thread.

bassy

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread36647.html

seems we have forgotten about him this year,maybe due to hes bad last year lol.

AdpRo

Can you copy and paste it in here, don't ahve access to most betting sites from work!

mike65

He had ONE fantastic year but thats all.

yesterdays picks

Magen’s Star/Rathlin 1.30 2x0.5pt each way
Medermit 2.05 2pts Win
Sunnyhillboy 2.40 2pts Win
Peddlers Cross 3.20 2pts Win
One Cool Cookie 4.00 1pt each way
American Trilogy 5.15 1pt each way

Todays are not up yet.

bassy

4.00 Coral Cup

One of the fiercest handicaps of the festival, and I fancy two each way in this at working man’s prices, albeit that they don’t meet all the trends for the race.

The first one is an old favourite of mine in Howard Johnson’s Arcalis who has always looked as though this trip was what he needed as he got older. He needs a big field and fast pace to run against. The type you usually only get at the big meetings where everything happens just a stride quicker than normal. His complete Cheltenham Festival record reads: 1st-Won Supreme Novices by six lengths;5th-beaten eleven lengths by Brave Inca in the Champion Hurdle;5th-jumped the last in front in the County Hurdle and just run out of it after the last hurdle;7th-Running on late in the day to finish seventh to American Trilogy in the County Hurdle and 2nd-Beaten by Thousand Stars in last years County Hurdle.

Upped in trip today, I expect to see him travelling a bit out of his ground early on, but making progress as they reach the bottom of the hill before two out and staying on up the hill best of all. I really cant see him not being involved in the finish in what is likely to be his Festival swansong as at the age of eleven it is unlikely he will be back next year for more battles and at 20/1 he rates cracking each way value.


The other fancy was one I hoped would be a bit of a dark horse but Tanya Stevenson has also expressed a fancy for him on the Morning Line but still a huge price at 33/1 in the shape of Orsippus from the Michael Smith yard. Hasn’t perhaps shown much this season so far but last spring he really came to life, with a third placed effort in the Fred Winter at 33/1 and then going on to win the four year old hurdle at Aintree at 40’s. He has the services again of Davy Condon who was on board for those two good runs last year, and the stable had a winner on the all weather the other day with Texas Holdem. I think this fellow is definitely a spring horse(2 wins, a 2nd and two third places from his six runs between February 1st and April 30th last year) and is one to keep an eye on at Aintree even if he doesn’t win today. Both horses will carry 1pt each way on both of them.


I did try and find something for the two non Channel Four races but in all honesty I couldn’t find any angle in either race and would rather just keep a couple of points back for better opportunities tomorrow, especially in the handicap chases so no bet in either of the Fred Winter or Champion Bumper for me but to recap todays bets:


Not the most auspicious of starts on Day 1 with only Peddlers Cross getting close to troubling the judge, but never mind there is still three more days to go and nineteen more races to try and find winners. And it wouldn’t be any fun if the winners just fell into our laps at the first time of asking now would it, to paraphrase a line from Cocktail if you will.

1.30 National Hunt Novice Chase

It used to be a type of standard response when looking for the winner of this race to search for whatever Jonjo O’Neill was running and back it as he had four winners of the race in the last eleven runnings.So I decided to look at his representative Aberdale and came across a trend that makes interesting reading.


ABERDALE(IRE)
7 y-old b gelding( Jonjo O’Neill)

Record by discipline
NHF Races: 531(1-3)
Hurdle:554711(2-6)
Chases:321(1-3)

Conclusion: He has won at all three disciplines over jumps.

Configuration

Record racing right handed:5572(0-4)
Record racing left handed: 31541131(4-8)

Conclusion: He is far better going left handed.

Time of year

January 1st- Feb 28th: 54(0-2)
March 1st to May 31st:1711(3-4)
June 1st-December 31st:535321(1-6)

Conclusion; He has run the majority of his best races in the spring.

Summary of ideal conditions:

When racing between March 1st and May 31st, going left handed, his record reads:1st-Won a Uttoxeter bumper,1st-Won a Southwell maiden hurdle and 1st-Won a Uttoxeter novice hurdle.

So with that three from three record under today’s conditions, his stables record in the race(jockey Alan Berry won this race on Butlers Cabin back in ‘07), and being the right age for the race(five of last six winners were aged seven), he definitely merit’s a 2pt Win bet in the start off point for battle lines being drawn on day two of the festival between punter and bookie.

A lot of the money being bet on the race is likely to focus on the Gordon Ellliot trained Chicago Grey under crack amateur Derek O’Conner but the worry would be the fact he is an eight year old which puts me off. Although three eight year olds have won in the last ten running’s those were all at the beginning of the noughties and I just wonder whether the race now sets up for a slightly younger type. Also only one Irish winner of the race in recent times, and that was 40/1 outsider Another Rum which would be a negative for the current favourite Alfa Beat as well as Some Target who is also in the first four in the betting.

The more I look at the race, the more I see less negatives about Aberdale than many of the others and the 10/1 looks more than fair.


2.05 Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle

Going by the market, this looks like a bit of an Irish benefit with the first three in the betting hailing from across the water.

No one really knows how good So Young is as yet, and he could easily romp up without coming off the bridle but the price has gone a bit and looking for a touch of value I would rather stake just the 1pt on the second favourite Oscars Well who was visually impressive last time out when taking the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown just over a month ago. The form perhaps hasn’t been franked as yet, but he was cantering all over his rivals today and at least unlike the favourite we know he has proven himself at the top level. That being the case, I would rather take the 7/2 or 4/1 about him than the odds available now on So Young but its not a race that I have a dogmatic viewpoint on.

2.40 RSA Chase

Time For Rupert has been the favourite for this all winter and has done nothing wrong in two runs so far over fences. However, would you want to be taking 9/4 about him with his stable in the middle of a poor run(last thirteen runners have all been beaten).Also, no winner of this race in the last ten has had as long a lay-off as he has, which is another negative in my book. So at those prices I have to take him on in this. But with what?

If Aiteen Thirtythree really was a superstar of the future, do you really think Ruby Walsh wouldn’t be on him? His trainer Paul Nicholls, him of the forked tongue, did say after his first win over fences that this race probably wouldn’t suit him. And yet now a few months later, it is suddenly the race for him. I have my doubts and will happily overlook him here.

Another one I have my doubts about is the Willie Mullins trained Mikael D’Haguenent who has yet to show the same sparkling form over the larger obstacles that he did when jumping hurdles and twelve of the last thirteen winners of this race had at least one win to their name in the season they triumphed here which he doesn’t have so is passed over.


In this race I shall be splitting my stakes and betting two horses Win only on Bostons Angel and The Giant Bolster at 14/1 and 20/1 respectively with 1pt on both.

Bostons Angel hails from the same Jessie Harrington yard that train Oscars Well, and again I like the fact he is a Grade 1 winner over fences already this season, winning the Dr P J Moriarty at Leopardstown last time, beating Mikael D’Hagunenet pretty comprehensively. I cannot see how this horse can be double the odds almost of that rival even with the fact that both his wins over fences have come on heavy ground. If he handles this ground today, then he is a massive price to win this in my opinion.

The Giant Bolster may come from an unfashionable stable in David Bridgwater and have the oldest jockey in the race in Rodi Greene, but I certainly wouldn’t discount them on those grounds. A faller behind Time For Rupert earlier in the season, he is two from three over fences. He was also a running on sixth behind Peddlers Cross in last year’s Neptune Investments at the festival which is cracking form. The other thing in his favour is his record when fresh. When racing within six weeks of his last run his record reads: 25365F(0-6). However, when he has had rest of at least six weeks from that last run his record reads: 51211(3 wins and a second from five runs). He has been off the track, purposely you have to say, for forty six days(just over six weeks) so will be ready to do himself justice and is another who looks to have been overlooked by the general public judging by the odds on offer.

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase

The big one of the day and my strongest bet thus far at the festival with 5 points being staked on this one.

First of all, the negatives. I cannot have Big Zeb on my radar at all. Won an awful Champion Chase last year when the favourite Master Minded failed to perform. Considering that Forpadydeplasterer and Kalahari king were involved in the finish shows how under par Master Minded ran. Neither of those two deserve even mentioning as the words Champion Chase as neither want to win at all. It was only Kalahari Kings greater reluctance to win that allow Forpadydeplasterer to win the Arkle two years ago. Also he is too old going on past experience, being a ten year old as no ten year old has won in the last 10 runnings of the race. Another stat against him is that eight of the last winners of the race won their last start before Cheltenham with the other two either unseating or unplacing.


Personally I cannot see past Master Minded in this at a massive 3/1. Still young enough, he won his last race at Ascot despite idling in front. He will be better being reunited with Ruby Walsh today who seems to get on better with him that A P who’s more forceful style perhaps isn’t as suited to this horse than Ruby’s more softly softly style. None of his other rivals really look up to the task of beating him here(French Opera is trained by Nicky Henderson who surprisingly has a dreadful record over fences at Prestbury Park in recent times with just four winning chasers in over 100 runners now over the larger obstacles, Woolcolmbe Folly won a handicap last time and was beaten out of sight in the Arkle last year) with perhaps Sizing Europe the one to chase him now he is back over two miles again, but it is Master Minded to land the 5pt NAP for me.






1.30 Aberdale 2pt Win
2.05 Oscars Well 1pt Win
2.40 Bostons Angel/The Giant Bolster 2x 1pt Win
3.20 master Minded 5pt Win
4.00 Arcalis/ Orsippis 2x 1pt each way

Starting balance:48pts
Staked today:14pts
Balance remaining:34pts

As always best of luck with whatever you bet today and may all the horses come home safe to fight another day yet again, like the punters!

Steven