Expected growth in dissident republicans?

paky

With sinn fein becoming more and more integrated into peaceful, mainstream politics, are we likely to see a growth in dissident republican elements?

I would say, most likely yes. lets face it, sinn fein can no longer claim to be republicans in the eyes of dissidents anymore. Are we going to see an escalation in attacks?
i hope the bad old days are over but i think we are entering into a very historic period in irish politics. The uvfs centenary is coming up next year, we have 2016 on the way and sinn fein are now prominent in both parliaments. Im very pessimistic with regards to a lasting peace on the island unless people are willing to put their differences aside.

Iwasfrozen

paky wrote: »

With sinn fein becoming more and more integrated into peaceful, mainstream politics, are we likely to see a growth in dissident republican elements?

I would say, most likely yes. lets face it, sinn fein can no longer claim to be republicans in the eyes of dissidents anymore. Are we going to see an escalation in attacks?
i hope the bad old days are over but i think we are entering into a very historic period in irish politics. The uvfs centenary is coming up next year, we have 2016 on the way and sinn fein are now prominent in both parliaments. Im very pessimistic with regards to a lasting peace on the island unless people are willing to put their differences aside.

I really hope not and I don't think so. Republicans aren't stupid. They are well aware of current trends of Northern Ireland demographics and know that nationalists will have an overall majority in a few decades.

paky

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I really hope not and I don't think so. Republicans aren't stupid. They are well aware of current trends of Northern Ireland demographics and know that nationalists will have an overall majority in a few decades.

its the hardline unionists i'd be afraid of. like i said above, the rise in sinn fein in both parliaments might give way to a rise in the uvf and no better time to do so, 2012, its centenary.

sollar

I don't see significant numbers joining the dissident ranks. That day is over as far as the majority north and south are concerned imo. There would be very little tacit support for it.

What have they got to offer anyway? How would they achieve anything?

paky

sollar wrote: »

I don't see significant numbers joining the dissident ranks. That day is over as far as the majority north and south are concerned imo. There would be very little tacit support for it.

What have they got to offer anyway? How would they achieve anything?

i dont know, im not a dissident. but there is a high possiblility of it happening.

Iwasfrozen

paky wrote: »

its the hardline unionists i'd be afraid of. like i said above, the rise in sinn fein in both parliaments might give way to a rise in the uvf and no better time to do so, 2012, its centenary.

I have to agree with Sollar. Not because dissident unionists don't have the means but because there simply isn't the support for it. And even if anything did kick up the BBC would very quickly put a dampener on it*.

*Never underestimate the BBC they're far more useful in these situations then soldiers.

paky

how do you mean the bbc?

Muinteoireamonn

what has Sinn Féin to do with it?

Iwasfrozen

paky wrote: »

how do you mean the bbc?

They're a state controlled media company so they have a vested interest in preventing a united Ireland. Thus they'll downplay any sort of dissident activity to retain the status quo.

paky

Muinteoireamonn wrote: »

what has Sinn Féin to do with it?

oh welcome back. how was your 3 month holiday?

Muinteoireamonn

Good man, answered the question I see, I had a great three month holiday, cant wait for Easter Holidays already...

RDM_83 again

do think there will be but not for reasons stated in original post.

I think there will be a general increase in crime in norn ireland due to the recession, if SF are trying to keep on the path of respectability means punishment attacks will be less common, the dissidents may take their place which may prove popular especially against drug dealers (which may be a massive hypocrasy but could be considered to work, look at levels of heroin addiction in Derry comparitively to similarly poverty stricken areas in the ROI or certain loyalist dominated areas like Ballymena).

The up coming cuts in the public sector are going to hammer the north really badly if quickly implemented.

Omagh has faded from some peoples minds and is not an event that younger people may remember happening or remember seeing the funerals in Buncrana (i think??) with Celtic players etc.

I'm also unsure if northern Ireland is becoming more intergrated
this link makes interesting points about policy change in this area

http://www.gladysganiel.com/victims/cohesion-sharing-and-integration-northern-ireland-can-do-better/

paky

Muinteoireamonn wrote: »

Good man, answered the question I see, I had a great three month holiday, cant wait for Easter Holidays already...

ya i did. i answered it in the op

Denerick

I think its pretty much inevitable. There is a lot of deprivation in the north and in the border area. In any country without a seperatist tradition these youths would gravitate towards organised crime and general petty violence. Republicanism offers these young men a respectable reason to murder, rape and maim. Hence, I expect to see an upsurge in dissident activity over the next decade.

Denerick

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

They're a state controlled media company so they have a vested interest in preventing a united Ireland. Thus they'll downplay any sort of dissident activity to retain the status quo.

Oh for christs sake. The Conspiracy theory forum is thataway ---->

paky

just a view from another perspective. partition was introduced to avoid a civil war between nationalists and unionists. do u think its inevitable that this civil war which was prevented will eventually be fought out?

Wolfe Tone

They tried to shoot some PSNI men the other day.


Personally I think its inevitable

Wolfe Tone

Denerick wrote: »

I think its pretty much inevitable. There is a lot of deprivation in the north and in the border area. In any country without a seperatist tradition these youths would gravitate towards organised crime and general petty violence. Republicanism offers these young men a respectable reason to murder, rape and maim. Hence, I expect to see an upsurge in dissident activity over the next decade.

Rape?

paky

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

They tried to shoot some PSNI men the other day.


Personally I think its inevitable

i agree. i also believe we are going to see a more unified unionist front

Denerick

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Rape?

You don't think any member of the PIRA never raped anyone?

Sunnyisland

To be honest once this country is divided you will always have dissident republicans willing to take up arms and if/when ever that is sorted out you will probably have dissident loyalists trying to get back through violence there objectives.

Denerick

realies wrote: »

To be honest once this country is divided you will always have dissident republicans willing to take up arms and if/when ever that is sorted out you will probably have dissident loyalists trying to get back through violence there objectives.

Which is exactly why nationalism is such a perverse ideology. Essentially two groups of nationalists claim sovreignty over the 6 counties. Only when we stop giving a crap about abstract bull like sovreignty and accept that lines on a map are irrelevant to most people on their day to day lives... Perhaps then this particular hangover from the 19th century will die a natural death.

Bring on a UNited States of Europe I say.

Wolfe Tone

Denerick wrote: »

You don't think any member of the PIRA never raped anyone?

Perhaps one or two did, but it certainly wasn't a tactic, nor the norm. I would go so far as to say if one did they would be severly punished.

KeithAFC

paky wrote: »

its the hardline unionists i'd be afraid of. like i said above, the rise in sinn fein in both parliaments might give way to a rise in the uvf and no better time to do so, 2012, its centenary.

Looking forward to that centenary.

KeithAFC

paky wrote: »

just a view from another perspective. partition was introduced to avoid a civil war between nationalists and unionists. do u think its inevitable that this civil war which was prevented will eventually be fought out?

Dunno. I doubt they would win anyway.

paky

KeithAFC wrote: »

Dunno. I doubt they would win anyway.

who are talking about?

KeithAFC

paky wrote: »

who are talking about?

Dissidents fighting unionists like you said. Why it would kick off, i don't know. The dissidents seem more focused on killing republicans it seems with the whole planting of bombs in republican areas, the shooting of PSNI officers with republicans close by. Plus the union is safe, hince no need to fight.

Wolfe Tone

KeithAFC wrote: »

Dissidents fighting unionists like you said. Why it would kick off, i don't know. The dissidents seem more focused on killing republicans it seems with the whole planting of bombs in republican areas, the shooting of PSNI officers with republicans close by. Plus the union is safe, hince no need to fight.

No militant republicans have targeted other republicans afaik.

What the have done is kneecapped a few people and planted some bombs to kill PSNI, and as you said, tried to sniper some PSNI in Derry.

KeithAFC

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

No militant republicans have targeted other republicans afaik.

What the have done is kneecapped a few people and planted some bombs to kill PSNI, and as you said, tried to sniper some PSNI in Derry.

Yes with republicans close by and then denied it. Killers and liars. They are awesome. :rolleyes:

Wolfe Tone

KeithAFC wrote: »

Yes with republicans close by and then denied it. Killers and liars. They are awesome. :rolleyes:

Im pretty sure they didnt deny any of those attacks keith, but dont let little things like facts get the way.

KeithAFC

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Im pretty sure they didnt deny any of those attacks keith, but dont let little things like facts get the way.

Yes they did. They denied that civilians (republicans in the community) were close by and one came out and called them utter liars.

Wolfe Tone

KeithAFC wrote: »

Yes they did. They denied that civilians (republicans in the community) were close by and one came out and called them utter liars.

If I remember correctly they didnt detonate the bomb for that very reason.

paky

KeithAFC wrote: »

Looking forward to that centenary.

im not. you wont see a growth in one without seeing a growth in the other

KeithAFC

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

If I remember correctly they didnt detonate the bomb for that very reason.

They shot at the police when normal republicans were talking to them. Hince why some one could of been killed.

Iwasfrozen

Denerick wrote: »

Oh for christs sake. The Conspiracy theory forum is thataway ---->

It's hardly a conspiracy theory.

Denerick

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

It's hardly a conspiracy theory.

No, you're right, its just plain stupid. I have seen reports of increased dissident activity on the BBC news website all the time, and its also occasionally included in main broadcasts and is a regular appearance on their regional incarnation.

Frankly if the dissidents start blowing things up they will become news. The BBC is not controlled by the State, in fact it often gets itself into bother by criticising the State.

Iwasfrozen

Denerick wrote: »

No, you're right, its just plain stupid. I have seen reports of increased dissident activity on the BBC news website all the time, and its also occasionally included in main broadcasts and is a regular appearance on their regional incarnation.

Frankly if the dissidents start blowing things up they will become news. The BBC is not controlled by the State, in fact it often gets itself into bother by criticising the State.

I never said it was controlled by the state and I never said it was censored by the state. I said as a state owned company it has a vested interest in the maintenance of the union. Because if there was a united Ireland they'd all be out of a job.

Fitzerb

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I never said it was controlled by the state and I never said it was censored by the state. I said as a state owned company it has a vested interest in the maintenance of the union. Because if there was a united Ireland they'd all be out of a job.

Could be reading this wrong but are you saying that the BBC (NI) report the news based on the principle of ensuring the union remains because otherwise they would have no job if it didnt ?

If so I would suggest a career in fiction writing

Bottle_of_Smoke

Their numbers may very well rise due to the economic conditions coming up over the next few years.

Their "success" in attacks will not increase though. Everything they've done in the last 3 years would be overshadowed by a month of activity by the provos in the 80s.

I think this is down to technology and surveilance, so much funding has gone into counterterrorism in the last 10-15 years against militant Islamists, republicans haven't a hope at mounting an effective campaign.

You see they are not strategic minded because they are still using Provo tactics. This is stupid because it is much harder to get weapons into the country and much harder to organise operations due to the afformentioned technology.

Sinn Fein and the IRA realised this 20+ years ago and used the peace process as a mechanism to dress up defeat as victory. You have to wonder why the "dissidents" are continuing.

getz

Denerick wrote: »

I think its pretty much inevitable. There is a lot of deprivation in the north and in the border area. In any country without a seperatist tradition these youths would gravitate towards organised crime and general petty violence. Republicanism offers these young men a respectable reason to murder, rape and maim. Hence, I expect to see an upsurge in dissident activity over the next decade.

as most of them are irish citizens,are they irelands responsibility ?

getz

Denerick wrote: »

I think its pretty much inevitable. There is a lot of deprivation in the north and in the border area. In any country without a seperatist tradition these youths would gravitate towards organised crime and general petty violence. Republicanism offers these young men a respectable reason to murder, rape and maim. Hence, I expect to see an upsurge in dissident activity over the next decade.

the idiots dont understand that by riots,high crime,and terrorism they are not helping their own area,no company is going to set up in those places, for a start who will set up any business,the cost are to high,insurance,ect

wee truck big driver

Denerick wrote: »

I think its pretty much inevitable. There is a lot of deprivation in the north and in the border area. In any country without a seperatist tradition these youths would gravitate towards organised crime and general petty violence. Republicanism offers these young men a respectable reason to murder, rape and maim. Hence, I expect to see an upsurge in dissident activity over the next decade.

whats that smell does anybody else get it. probably the farmers must be that time of the year