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Interesting prediction from just before election

Iwannahurl · 2011-03-02 14:01:14

While searching for information on the "half a quota" rule regarding the chances of any candidate winning a seat based on their proportion of first preferences, I came across this webpage by chance. It uses a mathematical model, developed from election data 1987-2007, to calculate the likely outcome based on share of first…

02-03-2011 2:01pm

#1

Iwannahurl

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Join Date: November 2010

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While searching for information on the "half a quota" rule regarding the chances of any candidate winning a seat based on their proportion of first preferences, I came across this webpage by chance.

It uses a mathematical model, developed from election data 1987-2007, to calculate the likely outcome based on share of first preferences and likely transfer patterns.

This was the author's prediction:

FF (20+1)
FG (75)
LAB (37)
SF (12)
GP (1)
IND (20)

Not bad? The entry was posted after 7pm on Feb 25. I wish the author (Kevin Cunningham, TCD) had come up with it sooner.

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