How long do you think Fine Gael will remain the dominant political party

dilbert2

Given the sweeping victory for Fine Gael in the General Election, do you see this as a permanent movement within Irish politics where Fine Gael replace Fianna Fail as the leading party within the state? Or, do you see the last general election as merely large segments of the electorate seeking to punish Fianna Fail for their performance in recent years, and that all will be forgotten in a few years with Fianna Fail back in power?

Or have things changed so much, and has too much happened for Fianna Fail to ever recover their position as the largest party in Irish politics?

How long do you think Fine Gael will last in power? Would you say

(a) 5 years
(b) 10 years
(c) 15 years
(d) longer

Fr Tod Umptious

It's really hard to tell, obviously how we fare out as a country in the next 5 years will tell a lot.

About a year and a half ago I heard a radio debate on RTE where one contributor said that the next election could be like that of 1932 where Dev's FF swept to victory wiping out Cumann na nGaedheals 10 years in power

And that is exactly what happened with FG wiping out FF, whether it will last 70 years or not I don't know

UsernameInUse

10 minutes.




Serious.

goz83

If they go into government with independents, 5 years.

If they go in with Labour this time, 15 years.

KELTICKNIGHTT

goz83 wrote: »

If they go into government with independents, 5 years.

If they go in with Labour this time, 15 years.

5 years maybe depending on what both agree too too form a government
history has shown that all party's in government where punished by voters when they didn't do what they promised and do it right,so maybe ask this question in 4 years would be better idea

Brian?

2 general elections at the most.

They'll lose at least 20 seats in the next GE but will still form a new goverment.

UsernameInUse

briankeating wrote: »

2 general elections at the most.

They'll lose at least 20 seats in the next GE but will still form a new goverment.

I think what has happened to us is the beginning of the end.

The world, not just us, who runs a society on the systems we operate on are all falling apart. The United States are hundreds of trillions of dollars in debt, yet, they are borrowing from China (a dictatorship) to fund a war, promoting democracy in Iraq. The situation is completely messed up from start to finish and it's about to give.

I don't see either Civil War party lasting in the next 10 years. The same with left parties right across the board. Their belief in a system which is, by it's very make-up, unsustainable in the long-term will show signs of devastating proportions over the next decade.

I believe Libertarianism is the only system that can save mankind and Capitalism at this point.

dlofnep

I'll give it til the next GE.

Brian?

UsernameInUse wrote: »

I think what has happened to us is the beginning of the end..

Fatalistic

UsernameInUse wrote: »

The world, not just us, who runs a society on the systems we operate on are all falling apart. The United States are hundreds of trillions of dollars in debt, yet, they are borrowing from China (a dictatorship) to fund a war, promoting democracy in Iraq. The situation is completely messed up from start to finish and it's about to give.

I don't see either Civil War party lasting in the next 10 years. The same with left parties right across the board. Their belief in a system which is, by it's very make-up, unsustainable in the long-term will show signs of devastating proportions over the next decade.

I believe Libertarianism is the only system that can save mankind and Capitalism at this point.

Who says Capatalism is worth saving? I certainly don't think it is.

Politics is cyclical, there will be another Fianna Fail goverment in 10-15 years.

UsernameInUse

briankeating wrote: »

Fatalistic




Who says Capatalism is worth saving? I certainly don't think it is.

Politics is cyclical, there will be another Fianna Fail goverment in 10-15 years.

Capitalism is a necessary condition for Freedom. I would sacrifice my life to save it. When Socialism moves in, the people lose their individual sovereignty. If you're one of those ULA supporters - I will tell you this; A society that strives for equality, will get neither Liberty nor Equality.

Liam Byrne

UsernameInUse wrote: »

Capitalism is a necessary condition for Freedom.

I disagree. Capitalism encourages and rewards greed.

Lord TSC

I agree capitalism encourages and rewards greed. I just happen to think greed is the best motivator for man to work hard...

AndyC555

If FG/LAB feck this up it will be a very longgggggggg time before they are in government again.

Killer Pigeon

dilbert2 wrote: »

Given the sweeping victory for Fine Gael in the General Election, do you see this as a permanent movement within Irish politics where Fine Gael replace Fianna Fail as the leading party within the state? Or, do you see the last general election as merely large segments of the electorate seeking to punish Fianna Fail for their performance in recent years, and that all will be forgotten in a few years with Fianna Fail back in power?

Or have things changed so much, and has too much happened for Fianna Fail to ever recover their position as the largest party in Irish politics?

How long do you think Fine Gael will last in power? Would you say

(a) 5 years
(b) 10 years
(c) 15 years
(d) longer

The Blueshirts would hope for a 1000 year Reich. In reality though I'd say 12 years would be unrealistic for FG. I'm guessing between 5 and 10 years.

Brian?

UsernameInUse wrote: »

Capitalism is a necessary condition for Freedom. I would sacrifice my life to save it. When Socialism moves in, the people lose their individual sovereignty. If you're one of those ULA supporters - I will tell you this; A society that strives for equality, will get neither Liberty nor Equality.

Capitalism is most certainly not a necessary condition for freedom. It's a system that rewards greed and elevates the few above the many by encouraging the exploitation of the working man.

I think you'll find socialism "moved in" a long time ago. You live in a social democracy.

dan_d

I really don't think any party should be allowed to be in power for that long.As part of our politicial reform, I'm of the opinion that a time limit should be put on individuals being in certain positions in Gov for long periods of time.It's not healthy for the country.

SupaNova

I believe Libertarianism is the only system that can save mankind and Capitalism at this point.

If you are Libertarian people will just slander you as a greedy capitalist rather than debate a policy. If you present them with how a competitive private education and health care system would benefit them they seem to leave the debate.

I always bring up the free market approach to paying taxes, and give the example of how somewhere in the region of 75% of Americans are against the war and if they had the option of not been forced to pay for it that would foot the other 25% with the bill and with that bill they would re consider, etc. Look at that for a democracy. Yet they would rather blame the war on free market capitalistic greed when that has nothing to do with the war.

Brian?

SupaNova wrote: »

If you are Libertarian people will just slander you as a greedy capitalist rather than debate a policy. If you present them with how a competitive private education and health care system would benefit them they seem to leave the debate.

Present said arguments. I would be interested in seeing them.

SupaNova wrote: »

I always bring up the free market approach to paying taxes, and give the example of how somewhere in the region of 75% of Americans are against the war and if they had the option of not been forced to pay for it that would foot the other 25% with the bill and with that bill they would re consider, etc. Look at that for a democracy. Yet they would rather blame the war on free market capitalistic greed when that has nothing to do with the war.

What?

SupaNova

Not going to re write:

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056193445&page=21

What?

That example shows what a free market is, people free to act without government intervention.

ejmaztec

Isn't it time for a new party, which will have support from those now disenchanted by FF, and for those about to be disenchanted by FG and Labour? It might prevent 166 Independent TDs being elected at the next general election.

R P McMurphy

Would Somalia be an example of a country where libertarian ideals flourish? No government there since the early 90s

Brian?

SupaNova wrote: »

That example shows what a free market is, people free to act without government intervention.

I don't think it does. If anything it argues for an Anarchist Socialist system of goverment.

SupaNova

Would Somalia be an example of a country where libertarian ideals flourish? No government there since the early 90s

Care to debate a particular issue rather than imply that Somalia is in such a mess because of Libertarian ideals:rolleyes:.

Read Somalia's history.

Brian?

SupaNova wrote: »

Not going to re write:

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056193445&page=21

What you've done there is throw forward a load of hollow arguments why you think Libertinarianism would work.

I could do the same for communism, true communism not Leninism, Maoism or Stalinism.

Neither arrgument would be grounded in fact though, I was hoping you'd have some specific examples of how a private health or education system would benefit us.

SupaNova

Which particular argument is hollow and why do you think it wouldn't work?

Brian?

SupaNova wrote: »

Which particular argument is hollow and why do you think it wouldn't work?

All of them to be honest. I was hoping you might convince they're not with real world examples.

SupaNova

Your reasoning is something along the lines of show me it has been done before or it can't be done. Pretty dumb reasoning.

-Unemployment insurance is much fairer system than the dole. Those that make great effort to find work when unemployed would have very low premiums, those who are lazy ****ers would end up with very high premiums or perhaps lose the option of insurance. People would find other jobs before they quit one because they didn't like it and could live on the dole. People would then ask what about the lazy ****ers who have lost the ability to get insurance aren't they vulnerable. No they are not they are lazy ****s.

Unemployment insurance vs the dole. What parts of my arguments are hollow?

Brian?

SupaNova wrote: »

Your reasoning is something along the lines of show me it has been done before or it can't be done. Pretty dumb reasoning.

My reasoning is not "dumb". Mainly because I am not using any. I am straight up asking you for real world examples of how private health and education would be better than the current system. I am not presenting any arguments for you being wrong, because I don't know if you are right or wrong.

This is what you said:

SupaNova wrote: »

If you are Libertarian people will just slander you as a greedy capitalist rather than debate a policy. If you present them with how a competitive private education and health care system would benefit them they seem to leave the debate.

I want to know why you think that. Jesus man, I am not having a go at you or anything, I am genuinly interested. So I would appreciate you dropping the insults.

SupaNova

My reasoning is not "dumb". Mainly because I am not using any. I am straight up asking you for real world examples of how private health and education would be better than the current system. I am not presenting any arguments for you being wrong, because I don't know if you are right or wrong.

In free markets the businesses that offer the best service at the best price stay in business. The ones that offer the worst services and worse prices wouldn't last very long. Having state control of a service means there is no competition. If private health care was allowed to compete with public health care, the only way that private health care would gain business is if they offered the same service at a better price, or a better service. Likewise for education. There is no country in the world that has done this as far as i know.

Brian?

SupaNova wrote: »

In free markets the businesses that offer the best service at the best price stay in business. The ones that offer the worst services and worse prices wouldn't last very long. Having state control of a service means there is no competition. If private health care was allowed to compete with public health care, the only way that private health care would gain business is if they offered the same service at a better price, or a better service. Likewise for education. There is no country in the world that has done this as far as i know.

But by charging for health and education you're making them a priveldge rather than a right. In any fair society education and healthcare should be basic rights.

So in your model would the private healthcare and education be paid for by the citzen or by the goverment with some sort of insurance scheme?

PatsytheNazi

briankeating wrote: »

2 general elections at the most.

They'll lose at least 20 seats in the next GE but will still form a new goverment.

Agreed, two elections therefore 9/10 years. FG will be down quite a lot of seats after 5 years of austerity, even though in fairness it's mainly down to FF brilliant and honest running of the country for almost a decade and a half.

Labour will also be down form it's 37 seats with SF probably to capitalise most on them. Wouldn't be surprised if SF double their seats in five years time.

What's to become of FF, does it have a political future ? (since it never had a moral future). It's a toxic brand, it's in serious debt, up to 3 million euros, party membership falling like a brick, voter base now the elderly rural vote. And more importantly, Labour are rightly pushing to end coporate donations to party's - that's the KO punch to FF . I expect it to fracture into another party as it's just a lame duck and not the place for the ' cute hoors ' and gombeen men who want to get into office and line their pockets. Let's call it the "disguised FF"

And so who may FG go into coalation with in 5 years time ? My money is on "disguised FF" and maybe a few right wing independents.

SupaNova

But by charging for health and education you're making them a priveldge rather than a right. In any fair society education and healthcare should be basic rights.

You are also being charged for the current education and health care system. I don't have much experience with health care but you are paying pretty heavily for a poor education. Don't forget Health care and Education are privileges and you are paying for them. They are not rights or free. Food is obviously more important than health care. Why do we leave food open to free market competition, and not education and health care.

This is obviously something you can't do overnight, taking what we have been told are our rights and are free when they are neither is a pretty impossible.

So in your model would the private healthcare and education be paid for by the citzen or by the goverment with some sort of insurance scheme?

People would take out health insurance. You should not be forced to choose that insurance from a government scheme, the consumer needs to get the best cover at the best price, that insurance has to be open to the forces of free market competition.

Yes you would have to pay for your education. If you had a choice of paying for state education or a private education, you would only choose private education if it offered a better education or better price. There are many barriers to entry though.

Check out Libertarian Ron Paul, a politician who understands economics and is not acting in short term self interest. One of the first things he wants to tackle is monetary and fiscal policy. Something you can change a little quicker. Privatizing education and health care are going to be long term efforts.

LordSutch

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Labour will also be down form it's 37 seats with SF probably to capitalise most on them. Wouldn't be surprised if SF double their seats in five years time.

Nah, Fianna Fail will recover most of their protest vote from SF and head back up into the 30s 40s 60s seats territory, and SF will stay around their core vote, which may well be 10%, but with fewer seats.

Anyway I dont see much support for SF in the 2016 election poll.

Chucky the tree

One of Sinn Fein vote pullers was burning the bondholders/IMF but in 5 years time that won't matter so I'm not sure where/how they'll expand their vote base unless they come closer to centre.

PatsytheNazi

LordSutch wrote: »

Nah, Fianna Fail will recover most of their protest vote from SF and head back up into the 30s 40s 60s seats territory, and SF will stay around their core vote, which may well be 10%, but with fewer seats.

Anyway I dont see much support for SF in the 2016 election poll.

Chucky the tree wrote: »

One of Sinn Fein vote pullers was burning the bondholders/IMF but in 5 years time that won't matter so I'm not sure where/how they'll expand their vote base unless they come closer to centre.

Laughable lads, but that's FG zealots for you. Maybe you should start a "Smash Sinn Fein" campaign like the unionists had in the earlier 80's when SF started to rise in the six counties. You'd probably be as successful

LordSutch

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Laughable lads, but that's FG zealots for you. Maybe you should start a "Smash Sinn Fein" campaign like the unionists had in the earlier 80's when SF started to rise in the six counties. You'd probably be as successful

I thought my opinion was very balanced, and all I suggested was that FF might reclaim many of their votes, I never even hinted at "smashing Sinn Fein" (as you put it).

Anyway, SF are still polling very poorly in the 2016 poll

Chucky the tree

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Laughable lads, but that's FG zealots for you. Maybe you should start a "Smash Sinn Fein" campaign like the unionists had in the earlier 80's when SF started to rise in the six counties. You'd probably be as successful

Not as laughable as SF doubling their seats.

nuac

I think there will be a GE about every three years leading to all sorts of political re-alignments.

Elecorate is increasingly volatile - so there will be many changes over the next decade or so.

My crystal ball has become clouded just now so cannot say how things will turn out.