The Australian Dollar $$$$$

rightyabe

I posted this in the Australia forum a few day ago, maybe I would get a better response here.

Looking through XE.com currency converter an I noticed that between the 7th Oct 2008-12th Oct 2008 the Dollar rose from:

€1 = $1.78897 to €1 = $ 2.10096

Thats a rise of $0.31199 in 5 days( It is also the highest the dollar was in 10 years, cause thats just as far as the graph will show)

And ever since then its been dropping on a gradual slope until it hit its record low (or high, which ever way you look at it) of $1.29553 against the € on the 8th January 2011.....since then it has been on a slow rise. It sits at $1.36521 for our euro as I write this..

What does all this mean? Why did it reach its record high (Oct 2008) just when Ireland (the euro) was entering "recession."

Anyone working in the Financial Sector who could tell me is the euro going to get stronger of weaker in the next year against the AUS $? (Whats the word on the street)


Also are the many Irish in Oz hoping that the dollar will drop/grow further so that when you come home to ireland $1 could be worth closer to €1 ( it stands at €0.73 today) If that rose to lets say €0.90 for a $1, i'm guessing people on whv's earning silly money labouring (approx $30-40 per hour) will be praying for that to happen as that would mean their earning in essance the equalivant of €27-36 per hour...

rightyabe

rightyabe wrote: »

I posted this in the Australia forum a few day ago, maybe I would get a better response here.

Looking through XE.com currency converter an I noticed that between the 7th Oct 2008-12th Oct 2008 the Dollar rose from:

€1 = $1.78897 to €1 = $ 2.10096

Thats a rise of $0.31199 in 5 days( It is also the highest the dollar was in 10 years, cause thats just as far as the graph will show)

And ever since then its been dropping on a gradual slope until it hit its record low (or high, which ever way you look at it) of $1.29553 against the € on the 8th January 2011.....since then it has been on a slow rise. It sits at $1.36521 for our euro as I write this..

What does all this mean? Why did it reach its record high (Oct 2008) just when Ireland (the euro) was entering "recession."

Anyone working in the Financial Sector who could tell me is the euro going to get stronger of weaker in the next year against the AUS $? (Whats the word on the street)


Also are the many Irish in Oz hoping that the dollar will drop/grow further so that when you come home to ireland $1 could be worth closer to €1 ( it stands at €0.73 today) If that rose to lets say €0.90 for a $1, i'm guessing people on whv's earning silly money labouring (approx $30-40 per hour) will be praying for that to happen as that would mean their earning in essance the equalivant of €27-36 per hour...

AUD was overvalued before that jump, Australia has a big property bubble
waiting to pop.....! Effects wont be as bad as here but their currency will devalue I bet

Irish Slaves for Europe

Australia does have a property crash coming up, but with the mining sector currently booming I don't think the crash will be before 2012. Europe on the other hand has Irelands impending debt default/restructuring on the cards this year. Portugals bond interest rates are also increasing rapidly. So I do think it's better to hold AUD this year.

Bluetonic

rightyabe wrote: »

Anyone working in the Financial Sector who could tell me is the euro going to get stronger of weaker in the next year against the AUS $? (Whats the word on the street)

Clearly anyone who can tell you that would not bother posting on boards.ie as they would be sipping cocktails in the West Indies.

Be a little more realistic about your asks.

Eliot Rosewater

Moved from Irish Economy. Hope it's okay here.

fred252

isn't it likely that the € will devalue also?

irishh_bob

Deleted User wrote: »

AUD was overvalued before that jump, Australia has a big property bubble
waiting to pop.....! Effects wont be as bad as here but their currency will devalue I bet

while the aussie dollar is overvalued , i cant see it weakening while china is booming , the australian economy is booming because of china

as for the euro , the experts were predicting the euro would have parity with the dollar by the middle of this year and that the euro currency might not survive 2011 , instead the euro rallied from around 1.28 dollars ( prior to xmas ) to 1. 38 today , i suspect the euro will weaken in the coming weeks as the horror of the irish banking system becomes further clear , any renegotiating of our interest rate on the IMF - ECB deal will make investors nervous too , all in all , i think its a pretty good time to buy aussie dollars with the euro

ixus

Australia is in denial of it's property bubble as Ireland was. You can keep track of good articles on this here.

Banks are leveraged to the hilt and using cross collateralisation of their loan book. They are not separating deposits of FX carry trade investors from other depositors. Why is this risky? Because, when the carry trade ends, it will end fast. Check out a monthly chart of the AUS/USD back in 2008. The moves in August to October were severe.

The banks also, at the moment, say their default rate on their loan books are low. These are before the rate rises over the last while. The next default rates should be interesting. Especially when you factor in the natural disasters the country has had of late.

Finally, China. They are extremely dependant on China. China is trying to stem inflation by rate rises and slowly allowing its currency to appreciate. This is a negative for the AUS.

Quantative Easing is the reason the currency has appreciated so much since 2008. If the FED ever turns the tap off, sell the AUS.

xertpo

Bluetonic wrote: »

Clearly anyone who can tell you that would not bother posting on boards.ie as they would be sipping cocktails in the West Indies.

Be a little more realistic about your asks.

It's replies like this that discourage some people from asking questions here. This is a discussion board. If you have nothing to add to the discussion then take your fingers off the keyboard.

coylemj

xertpo wrote: »

It's replies like this that discourage some people from asking questions here. This is a discussion board. If you have nothing to add to the discussion then take your fingers off the keyboard.

Sorry but he's dead right, if someone could predict the way currencies like the Australian dollar are going to move they wouldn't be wasting their time answering questions from complete strangers on an Irish discussion forum.

rightyabe

I posted this thread to get a "word on the street answer" I was never expecting a 100% god gospel account. I've posted other questions on here and got some really "up their own ass answers" theres alot to be said for if you've nothing good to say, dont say it.....I think alot of could learn from that on these forums......

But thanks to all how gave me very good answers and opinions, it has shown a different light to the "BOOM" in Australia. From what i've read I think basically their to reliant on the mining, and with China now importing iron ore from Africa and Brazil at surely a lower price due to cheap labour, surely the miming will be affected soon.

irishh_bob

coylemj wrote: »

Sorry but he's dead right, if someone could predict the way currencies like the Australian dollar are going to move they wouldn't be wasting their time answering questions from complete strangers on an Irish discussion forum.

if threads were knocked on the head every time a poster asked for future predictions for a share , the investment and markets forum would resemble a monastrey , its no more difficult or easy to predict a currency than it is a stock