Seat predictions

barbarians

I went through every constituency and this is what I get:




(Ceann Comhairle automatically retains his seat)


http://fullhouse.whitebox.ie/

^ The above is a website that you can use to go through every constituency to get an accurate result.


So come on boardsies, polling day is tomorrow and counting those votes the day after.
Let's get predicting to see who is the shrewdest political predicter here/best guesser :P

Riskymove

Fine Gael 77
Labour 32
Fianna Fail 22
Sinn Fein 14
Green Party 1
Others 20

PeterIanStaker

1. IMF
2. ECB

People of Ireland 0

Inquitus

questionmark?

So the media ban is now in effect and its up to people to make up theIr mindS. We have got seat predictions from various sources but what are your predictions?

Mine are as follows:

Fine Gael: 78
Fianna Fáil: 33
Labour: 30
Independents & Others: 12
Sinn Féin: 11
Green Party: 1


As much as it pains me FF wont suffer as bad as people think due to voter blind loyal stupidity and the grey vote enjoying there day out in town while voting. Not enough suitable Independents for FG to go into power with so the Labour/FG coalition is what we are going to have IMHO.

Inquitus

questionmark?

Inquitus wrote: »

Is that your prediction Inquitus or have you quoted from another source?

Inquitus

questionmark? wrote: »

Is that your prediction Inquitus or have you quoted from another source?

That's my prediction after trawling through http://fullhouse.whitebox.ie/ which was mentioned in this thread.

raymon

Inquitus wrote: »

That's pretty close to paddy power.( based on betting odds)

FF =23 FG= 76

I think FF will do a lot worse than 23 , definitely not anywhere 27. I predict 18-20 seats for FF

calf

FF 25
FG 80
LAB 27
SF 15
IND 17
GP 2

the groutch

FG 71
FF 23
LAB 36
SF 17
GR 1
ULA 6
IND 12

gandalf

Did the same on that site and this is what I came up with.

Badabing

FG 75

FF 30 + 1 cc

Lab 37

SF 12

OTH 11

Sir Oxman

This is supposedly a FG internal strategists prediction (as published in the Mail)
FG 82
Lab 30
FF 22
SF 14
ULA 4
Grn 2
Ind 12

FG/Green govt anyone??


No link but posted by the owner of politics.ie

the groutch

gambiaman wrote: »

This is supposedly a FG internal strategists prediction (as published in the Mail)
FG 82
Lab 30
FF 22
SF 14
ULA 4
Grn 2
Ind 12

FG/Green govt anyone??


No link but posted by the owner of politics.ie

a government being propped up by 2 green tds, and a majority of 1 (assuming they have the ceann comhairle)? that would last about 5 minutes

Sir Oxman

the groutch wrote: »

a government being propped up by 2 green tds? that would last about 5 minutes

The GP didn't do a bad job propping up the last lot for 3 and a half long years, we all thought it'd never bloody end

I wonder what the public reaction would be to that, FG/GP??!

EDIT: They'd also possibly have that yoke Lowry and Shane Ross?

Matt Le Tissue

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=350x150&cht=p&chco=0000CC,009900,F00000,00FF00,005500,E6E6E6,FF9933,F4F4F4&chl=Fine+Gael%2870%29|Fianna+Fail%2821%29|Labour%2835%29|Green+Party%281%29|Sinn+Fein%2820%29|Other%2813%29|United+Left%285%29|Not+selected+%280%29&chd=t:70,21,35,1,20,13,5,0


FG 70
FF 21
Labour 35
SF 20
GP 1
ULA 5
Others 13

Tikka Jim

FG 72 (+ 31)
FF 38 (- 50)
Lab 33 (+ 13)
SF 11 (+ 7)
GP 3 (- 3)
UL & Other 8

http://www.newstalk.ie/2011/programmes/all-programmes/tom-dunne/election-lookalikes/

imme

calf wrote: »

FF 25
FG 80
LAB 27
SF 15
IND 17
GP 2

something like this, but I don't see SF getting 15, hopefully 8, that's what my bet with Paddy Power says, anyway:(

I also predict that Pat Cox will be a Taoiseach's nominee to the Seanad, maybe John Bruton as well, just a maybe for Bruton, but a pretty much definitely for Cox

Pherekydes

dsmythy

Decided to look through the results on the Boards.ie vote poll on the presumption of Sinn Féin and Labour being over represented and Fianna Fáil being under represented to try and find how many seats they could both possibly get.

Excluding Independents I took Fianna Fáilers within two of the last seat as winning it and with Sinn Féin and Labour I took those who took the last seats for them out.

This would make:

FF - 23
SF - 19
Lab - 38

I havn't got all day to work it out how it would affect the others :pac:

Still too many for Sinn Féin though probably. Fine Gael might be slightly underpresented too so perhaps that's where Sinn Féin might drop and Fine Gaelers taking those seats instead or Labour snatching them instead. Alternatively the fine users of boards.ie are more representative of the general public than we thought

Rubik.

gambiaman wrote: »

This is supposedly a FG internal strategists prediction (as published in the Mail)
FG 82
Lab 30
FF 22
SF 14
ULA 4
Grn 2
Ind 12

FG/Green govt anyone??


No link but posted by the owner of politics.ie

The Daily Mail has had these "leaked secret" FG polls on it's front page the previous two Saturdays. All designed to the give the impression FG was gaining unstoppable momentum, but they was no real explanation on how these figures were arrived at. It was exercise in fairly cynical electioneering, dressed up as something else and all 3 articles should really have had "advertisetment" stuck up on the top of the page.

steelcityblues

FG74 (got arrogant a few too days early)
LAB29 (disappointing - no way around it)
FF28 (Martin factor to 'save' some seats, but still a huge fall)
SF15 (played a good campaign in the face of pressure)
IND14 (mostly FF gene pool though)
ULA4 (strong personalities to help small breakthrough)
G2 (personal votes for Sargent and Ryan)

dsmythy

I'm going with a final prediction of:

FG - 72
Lab - 37
FF - 24
SF - 16
Ind - 10
ULA - 5
GP - 2

murphaph

the groutch wrote: »

a government being propped up by 2 green tds, and a majority of 1 (assuming they have the ceann comhairle)? that would last about 5 minutes

I disagree.

It would be my prefered outcome in the event that FG fail to obtain an overall majority.

We need to cut current spending (FG hopefully) and I would be happy for 2 Green TDs to push their agenda which is compatible with mine (investment in mass transit and so on).

I would prefer a FG/GRN coalition anyday to the likely one of FG/Lab. They were ok together during the rising tide days of the early 90's but we're a sinking ship now and we need a strong dose of fiscal conservatism. FG won't even go far enough for me but they will want to go further than Labour will contemplate.

Soldie

jmayo

gambiaman wrote: »

The GP didn't do a bad job propping up the last lot for 3 and a half long years, we all thought it'd never bloody end

I wonder what the public reaction would be to that, FG/GP??!

EDIT: They'd also possibly have that yoke Lowry and Shane Ross?

No not lowry. :mad:
Shane Ross yes, as he actually might have something to bring to the government although he has some scruples so less easier to buy off than lowry.

imme wrote: »

something like this, but I don't see SF getting 15, hopefully 8, that's what my bet with Paddy Power says, anyway:(

I also predict that Pat Cox will be a Taoiseach's nominee to the Seanad, maybe John Bruton as well, just a maybe for Bruton, but a pretty much definitely for Cox

Pretty good spot.
I reckon Pat Cox is being brought into the system in order to use huge contacts in Europe.
Ehh I think Enda will only want one Bruton around, unless of course he needs someone to meet the Queen. :rolleyes:

murphaph wrote: »

I disagree.

It would be my prefered outcome in the event that FG fail to obtain an overall majority.

We need to cut current spending (FG hopefully) and I would be happy for 2 Green TDs to push their agenda which is compatible with mine (investment in mass transit and so on).

I would prefer a FG/GRN coalition anyday to the likely one of FG/Lab. They were ok together during the rising tide days of the early 90's but we're a sinking ship now and we need a strong dose of fiscal conservatism. FG won't even go far enough for me but they will want to go further than Labour will contemplate.

Only thing is the greens would not exactly go down well with FG rural TDs and voters.
Then again Michael Ring might be used to introduce them to some slurry pits down in Mayo to convince them to toe the line.

Saying that it might work better than a FG/Labour (Siptu/ICTU) setup.

Don Din

My prediction is

FG - 76
Lab - 32
FF - 30
SF - 12
Ind - 10
ULA - 4
GP - 2

Liam Byrne

jmayo wrote: »

Shane Ross yes, as he actually might have something to bring to the government although he has some scruples so less easier to buy off than lowry.

He lost the high moral ground - and my respect - last week, though, when he sent out canvassing stuff using Seanad facilities.

scargill

FG 77
Lab 29
FF 20
Ind 20
SF 17
ULA 3
Green 0

Sir Oxman

Rubik. wrote: »

The Daily Mail has had these "leaked secret" FG polls on it's front page the previous two Saturdays. All designed to the give the impression FG was gaining unstoppable momentum, but they was no real explanation on how these figures were arrived at. It was exercise in fairly cynical electioneering, dressed up as something else and all 3 articles should really have had "advertisetment" stuck up on the top of the page.

Yeah I was thinking, that hence 'supposedly'.

Sir Oxman

jmayo wrote: »

No not lowry. :mad:
Shane Ross yes, as he actually might have something to bring to the government although he has some scruples so less easier to buy off than lowry.

Lowry's name has been touted ever since a FG minority outcome was mooted.
I would be very unhappy with that.

jmayo

gambiaman wrote: »

Lowry's name has been touted ever since a FG minority outcome was mooted.
I would be very unhappy with that.

Touted by whom ?
I can see the old FG links might come into play, but then again he is typical local gouger who would want another casino or some such from Kenny.

I would rather see him do deals with the likes of Luke Flannagan who actaully stand for something like reform of county councils.

Sir Oxman

http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7333%3Apolitico-calls-the-election&catid=273%3Aelection-2011&Itemid=1192

Malachy Browne's internal tipping machine has come out with the composition of the 31st Dail at: Fine Gael 79 seats, Labour 31, Independents 21, Fianna Fail 22, Sinn Fein 12, and one lonely Green - Eamon Ryan in Dublin South.

Sir Oxman

jmayo wrote: »

Touted by whom ?
I can see the old FG links might come into play, but then again he is typical local gouger who would want another casino or some such from Kenny.

I would rather see him do deals with the likes of Luke Flannagan who actaully stand for something like reform of county councils.

The media.
Kenny has said any negotiations/deals with Indos would be transparent.

dermotot

72fg, 35l, 31ff, 11sf, 13 ind, 4green...
any bets?

dermotot

72fg, 35l, 31ff, 11sf, 13 ind, 4green.

little bit rediculous to have 4 greens, right?

JONJO THE MISER

I done the same i got F.G at 69-70, i have €400 on at 4/1 fo f.g to get 72 or less, come on i need the money:D

caseyann

FG 63
Labour 43
SF 40
independents 20

Pherekydes

caseyann wrote: »

FG 63
Labour 53
SF 40
independents 20

176 and still no eFFers?

Hint: the Ceann Comhairle.

56lcd

FG 76

LAB 29

FF 26

Sinn Fein 15

Independents 18

Greens 2

caseyann

Pherekydes wrote: »

176 and still no eFFers?

Hint: the Ceann Comhairle.

HAHAHA ah i edited and nope still none in my predictions lol

Sir Oxman

Bryan Dobson's prediction:
Polls closed; my seat predictions - FG 82,FF 29,Lab 27,SF 12,GP 1,Others 15

http://twitter.com/#!/bryansixone

Seats

FG - 75
Lab - 33
FF - 26
SF - 14
Green - 1
Others - 17 (Of which 2 SP, 1 PBP and 1 WUAG)


Vote share (%)

FG - 39
Lab - 17
FF - 15
SF - 10
Green - 3
Others - 16