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F.G Minority Goverment

  • 24-02-2011 2:12am
    #1
    JONJO THE MISER
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭


    Is this possible?
    I think F.G will get around 78 seats so would they rather do a deal with a few indo's than Labour thus forming a minority goverment.


Comments

  • #2
    Lux23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,134 ✭✭✭Lux23


    I don't know if they will be overly comfortable with doing a deal with the Independents as the vast majority of them may well be quite far to the left.

    I don't think they will do as well as the polls are suggesting and may well end up in bed with Labour. I think in the long run thats a better situation as an alliance with the Independents could come apart over something quite small.


  • #3
    Rubik.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭Rubik.


    If mathematically FG could go it alone with a number of independents it would give them the upper hand in negotiations with Labour. But would FG want to give up 4 or 5 cabinet places if it didn't have to? How stable would FG and a handful of independents be? It's hard to know really.


  • #4
    JONJO THE MISER
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Rubik. wrote: »
    But would FG want to give up 4 or 5 cabinet places if it didn't have to?

    I thought if it was a F.G minority goverment they would not have to give indo's any cabinet seats, the reason i ask is because im thinking of betting on a F.G minority goverment.


  • #5
    Rubik.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭Rubik.


    JONJO THE MISER wrote: »
    I thought if it was a F.G minority goverment they would not have to give indo's any cabinet seats, the reason i ask is because im thinking of betting on a F.G minority goverment.

    I meant giving cabinet seats to labour if they chose to go with them. What are the odds btw?


  • #6
    JONJO THE MISER
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Rubik. wrote: »
    I meant giving cabinet seats to labour if they chose to go with them. What are the odds btw?

    13/2 for a minority goverment with P.P thinking of putting €400 on it.


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  • #7
    Victor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,574 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    If FG get 78 seats and a minority government, there are two ways that things can pan out with the independents. Let us say there are 10 independents and the ceann comhairle comes from another party.

    The independents as a group vote with FG (by formal agreement or not). This gives the government a 88:77 majority.

    The independents as a group vote stay neutral. This gives the government a 78:77 majority, which would be too close for comfort for most things.

    Irish Times are suggesting 71 seats: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0224/1224290734208.html


  • #8
    Fentdog84
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 936 ✭✭✭Fentdog84


    I wouldnt rule rule out a FG minority Govt supported by Fianna Fail from the oppostion benches. Ive a feeling this election is full of empty promises especially with the amount of **** coming down the tracks..


  • #9
    Rubik.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭Rubik.


    I was looking this site earlier, it's from Trinity Colleges political science department. They have analysis of each of the last 13 polls, but the highest number of seats it has given FG is 70 and that was based on Paddy Powers own poll from today.

    http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/micheal_gallagher/Election2011.php


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