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Could Brian Lenihan not get elected?

  • 23-02-2011 3:05pm
    #1
    Floppybits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭


    I work in Dublin west the constituency of minister for finance Brian Lenihan also in this area is Leo Varadkaar, Joan Burton and Joe Higgins to name but a few. I have been wondering if Lenihan could be in trouble in this area considering the last budget he delivered.

    Could it be possible that Lenihan will not get elected?


Comments

  • #2
    gizmo555
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,948 ✭✭✭gizmo555


    Floppybits wrote: »
    Could it be possible that Lenihan will not get elected?

    We live in hope . . .


  • #3
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Floppybits wrote: »
    I work in Dublin North west the constituency of minister for finance Brian Lenihan also in this area is Leo Varadkaar, Joan Burton and Joe Higgins to name but a few. I have been wondering if Lenihan could be in trouble in this area considering the last budget he delivered.

    Could it be possible that Lenihan will not get elected?


    I would say that Brian Lenihan has no chance of being elected in Dublin North West.

    His chances of being elected in Dublin West depend on the ability of either Joan Burton or Leo Varadkar being able to split their vote sufficiently to allow either Nulty or Dennison stay ahead of Lenihan.

    Varadkar, Higgins and Burton will get in. In the end I don't think the vote management will be good enough to stop Lenihan but it is not clear.


  • #4
    stimpson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,860 ✭✭✭stimpson


    He'll never get elected in Dublin North West. Not a hope in hell.

    He's not a candidate there for starters.


  • #5
    joulter
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 115 ✭✭joulter


    it would be fantastic if he didn't but i imagine he'll sneak into the last seat


  • #6
    Pepe LeFrits
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 15,001 ✭✭✭✭Pepe LeFrits


    Isn't it just Dublin West?

    I'd planned on voting for McNulty as he looks like Lenihan's main challenger, but Labour's campaign performance has probably put paid to that.


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  • #7
    Floppybits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    stimpson wrote: »
    He'll never get elected in Dublin North West. Not a hope in hell.

    He's not a candidate there for starters.

    For all those smart ass people out there that never make a mistake, I have edited the original post unfortunately I cannot edit the title. So now rather than nit picking over little things can you answer the simple question?


  • #8
    Floppybits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    Pepe LeFrits wrote: »
    Isn't it just Dublin West?

    I'd planned on voting for McNulty as he looks like Lenihan's main challenger, but Labour's campaign performance has probably put paid to that.

    Sorry Pepe, was a mistake.

    Would the likes of Sinn Fein not be big vote getters in some of the area's located in that area?

    I would like to think that he would be in trouble and wont get in but I think he will sneak in.

    Can you imagine a Dail where both Lenihans and their Auntie are not elected? I hope that does happen so that these political families that we see are destroyed never to come back.


  • #9
    joulter
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 115 ✭✭joulter


    it could be a really interesting election dynasty wise. there could be no lenihan, haughey or andrews in the next dail


  • #10
    Pepe LeFrits
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 15,001 ✭✭✭✭Pepe LeFrits


    I just noticed the odds on PP have changed quite a bit, Lenihan has dropped back to 10/11 while Dennison has moved in from 4/1 to 6/4. They've been really pushing him (Varadkar held up his diamond banner at the Aviva rally!) and he's moved ahead of McNulty.

    Not that the odds necessarily mean that much, but it's interesting that people are fancying him more now...


  • #11
    Pepe LeFrits
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 15,001 ✭✭✭✭Pepe LeFrits


    ... and it's amazing that FF are running a second candidate. His odds have gone from 50/1 to 100/1!


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  • #12
    Flimbos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 642 ✭✭✭Flimbos


    Burton, Varadkar and Higgins will take the first three seats.

    Whether Lenihan takes the last seat depends on how effective the campaigns of Kieran Dennison and Patrick Nulty has been.

    It might also depend on the performance of Lenihan's running mate, David McGuinness, and his transfers.

    Unfortunately though, I can see Lenihan getting the fourth seat.


  • #13
    Pepe LeFrits
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 15,001 ✭✭✭✭Pepe LeFrits


    Floppybits wrote: »
    Would the likes of Sinn Fein not be big vote getters in some of the area's located in that area?
    I don't think so, though Donnelly does appear to be doing quite well. Joe Higgins is popular and should get elected but FF/FG/PDs took just shy of 60% of the first prefs in 2007.


  • #14
    Floppybits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    Pepe LeFrits wrote: »
    ... and it's amazing that FF are running a second candidate. His odds have gone from 50/1 to 100/1!

    Surely they FF wouldn't been so stupid as to think that Lenihan could have provided enough transfers to get both FF candidates elected?


  • #15
    Ray Burkes Pension
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 171 ✭✭Ray Burkes Pension


    Pepe LeFrits wrote: »
    I just noticed the odds on PP have changed quite a bit, Lenihan has dropped back to 10/11 while Dennison has moved in from 4/1 to 6/4. They've been really pushing him (Varadkar held up his diamond banner at the Aviva rally!) and he's moved ahead of McNulty.

    Not that the odds necessarily mean that much, but it's interesting that people are fancying him more now...

    PaddyPower also have a Ministers to lose their seats bet.
    Lenihan is 4/5 to lost his seat in it.


  • #16
    Flimbos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 642 ✭✭✭Flimbos


    Pepe LeFrits wrote: »
    ... and it's amazing that FF are running a second candidate. His odds have gone from 50/1 to 100/1!
    Floppybits wrote: »
    Surely they FF wouldn't been so stupid as to think that Lenihan could have provided enough transfers to get both FF candidates elected?

    I think FF's second candidate was tactical. He's from the same part of Blanchardstown as Nulty, they're both local councillors.

    FF see Nulty as a threat to Lenihan. Looks to me like McGuinness's sole purpose is to split Nulty's vote locally, helping Lenihan get back in.


  • #17
    lawladdie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19 ✭lawladdie


    joulter wrote: »
    it could be a really interesting election dynasty wise. there could be no lenihan, haughey or andrews in the next dail

    :D:D

    Except for that one in Mayo of course...

    And is Cowen jr likely to get in?


  • #18
    Floppybits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    Flimbos wrote: »
    I think FF's second candidate was tactical. He's from the same part of Blanchardstown as Nulty, they're both local councillors.

    FF see Nulty as a threat to Lenihan. Looks to me like McGuinness's sole purpose is to split Nulty's vote locally, helping Lenihan get back in.

    Hopefully it wont work, would love to see Lenihan not get elected? What huge blow that would be to the FF party. There are few other FF big hitters I would like to see loose their seats as well, I am looking forward to the count now.

    As for Cowan's brother, well I read today that he is already sneaking in back doors to avoid protests, doesn't bode well.


  • #19
    Raskolnikov
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Raskolnikov


    Getting Lenihan out would give the country a tremendous boost. Imagine booting out the architect of NAMA and the banking bailout, policies which have bankrupted the country and brought the IMF in? Imagine seeing the reaction of Mary O'Rourke, as her family dynasty (Conor, Brian, and herself) are wiped off the electoral map? It would be bloody gold.


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