Fine Gael hit 40%

mike65

Paddy Power/Red C poll, okay so small are the movements you could ignore this but it could well encourage a vital few to cast their first preferences one way rather than another.


FG 40% (+1)
Lab 18% (+1)
FF 15% (-1)
SF 10% (-1)
Ind 14%
Grn 3% (+1)

InigoMontoya

Not to criticise you specifically, but far too much is made of small changes in the polls.

http://redcresearch.ie/polling/poll-accuracy-method

"For all national population opinion polls RED C interview a random sample of 1,000+ adults aged 18+ by telephone. This sample size is the recognised sample required by polling organisations for ensuring accuracy on political voting intention surveys. The accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 3 per cent on any given result at 95% confidence levels."

mike65

I did note that very fact, read it again

sammalone

The boards poll has way over the required 1,000 sample and yet it doesn't resemble all the other polls - how come? is it skewed that much because it's basically those who surf a little more so probably means it's got a younger sample or maybe a more educated one?

mikemac

sammalone wrote: »

The boards poll has way over the required 1,000 sample and yet it doesn't resemble all the other polls - how come? is it skewed that much because it's basically those who surf a little more so probably means it's got a younger sample or maybe a more educated one?

The boards example is very skewed.

According the census forum close to a majority are either students or working in IT.
That's just not a good sample at all
I wouldn't say more educated

Looks around over 70% male too

Though the census is for boards, not the election site but I'd imagine it's much the same people on both

sammalone

Was just a little curious as FF last time I checked had 4 seats and SF something like 25! Would like to think the soldiers of destiny would fall that far but can't quite see it happening. It is a fairly big sample though so it will be interesting to compare actual results constituency by constituency at the end - I hope that will happen.
Is there somewhere we can see the demographics ( or whatever it's called - age, sex occupation etc) of the people who took part in boards vote?

Rubik.

Paddy powers odds on the election result

FG/Lab - 2/5

FG Majority - 7/2
Government

FG Minority - 13/2
Government

mike65

sammalone wrote: »

Is there somewhere we can see the demographics ( or whatever it's called - age, sex occupation etc) of the people who took part in boards vote?

Nope and thats a pity, it would have been useful to have to fill out a basic profile before casting the votes. Something for next time maybe. As stated the boards.ie demographic bears scant relation to the population as a whole. It probably never will get very close but as the web and boards.ie user base getd older it should get somewhat closer.

paul71

sammalone wrote: »

The boards poll has way over the required 1,000 sample and yet it doesn't resemble all the other polls - how come? is it skewed that much because it's basically those who surf a little more so probably means it's got a younger sample or maybe a more educated one?

Or part of the 450,000 who suffer the misfortune of having a little extra time on their hands.

Godge

Don't think the boards.ie poll is an accurate guide to the outcome on Friday. However, there are two things that could be told from it if that information is available.

firstly, the trend over the campaign should reflect what is happening in the wider election. So, for example, it appears that the demographics of those on boards tends to capture a lot more Sinn Fein voters than the wider electorate. However, has that vote gone up or down during the election campaign? Even if it is wrong in the absolute number, it should be more accurate in the trend of up or down.

secondly, one of the key questions for Friday is where will second preferences go. In particular, where will the new vote for Sinn Fein and independents go if their candidates are not elected. Again the boards.ie vote provides useful information on this. If we know that 50% of second preference Sinn Fein votes are going to Labour, it doesn't matter whether we are accurately recording the first preference number, we still have useful information that will help on Saturday during the count. To a lesser extent, it is very rare that FF candidates are eliminated and nobody knows how their vote will transfer. Again anyone voting for FF here is hardline FF here and is likely to see their candidate eliminated. An analysis of those second preferences would be useful for Saturday.

91011

Paddy Power - Fine Gael to win 68-71 seats at 10/1 I think is bet of the year.

Going through all odds constitutency by constituency, FG are look at 64 on a bad day, 69/70 on good day and 75 on brilliant day.

FF, looking at 26 on bad day, 30 on good day and 34 on brilliant day.

Lab looking at 28 on bad day, 33 on good day and 37 on brilliant day.

sammalone

Excellent point Godge about the second preferences! I'm still impressed with the size of the poll here - over 20,000 votes is fairly substantial. One's own constituency is probably the most interesting and mine of Cork south central has one candidate who is elected here but is nowhere near the race in all other polls so i guess he just has a lot of friends voting here or as ye say is male and young! Still it's all very interesting. Thanks for the replies lads

InigoMontoya

mike65 wrote: »

I did note that very fact, read it again

Which is why I was speaking in general and not just in relation to your post.

Auctionmcd

I still find it incredible that people are dismissing a FG only government so easily, they have been continually increasing their % in the polls and it is not unreasonable to expect a lot of the undecided 11% to vote FG. Say even half do vote for FG then they see themselves on 45.5% of the vote and at such a figure it is feasible that FG will be able to form a government on their own.