Advice on Value Bet

jacool

I have seen a bookmaker who has odds which are based on their misunderstanding of a market. I will let you know what it is after I've had a bet and have screenshots gathered of their mistake.
Based on my statistics, I am being offered 1/1 on a 1/3 shot and 4/6 on a 1/5 shot. Please note that these are not guaranteed winners, but the 1/3 and 1/5 odds state how often they would payout usually.
My question is this.
Should I go all in week 1 and hope to get away with it, or, just tinker away week by week, hoping not to get rumbled?
My going "all in" will involve me placing 5 bets, knowing 4 of them will lose, but that I have a 75% chance of doubling my money, or else placing 6 bets, with 5 losers, but having an 83% chance of a 4/6 success.

clived2

Are you betting online

Or are you betting in a shop?


Do you price up markets youself regulary.



My advice get as much on as soon as possibe, If you spotted an annomally,
you can be sure others have or will, or they will see it and fix it.

"Week by week", so its a long term bet, how long?

Oh yeah and when you have your bet down down,
Holler;)

ceadaoin.

Are you sure your stats are correct or there is no rule or stipulation to this market that makes it different than what you think?

If you are sure then you are more likely to get better mileage from it if you keep the stakes low enough to stay below the radar.

If you start placing large bets you will draw attention to it and perhaps prompt them to take a look at the market and correct any errors...or close your account (if you're betting online)

jacool

clived2 wrote: »

Are you betting online
Do you price up markets youself regulary.
"Week by week", so its a long term bet, how long?

Its an online bookmaker.
No. I'm using the basics like every dog in a race is 5/1.
The prices are based on this market from 2009 to 2011.

jacool

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Are you sure your stats are correct.

My stats are correct.
Your point about being under the radar (and staying under it) is what I'm worried about!

ceadaoin.

jacool wrote: »

My stats are correct.
Your point about being under the radar (and staying under it) is what I'm worried about!

Depending on what type of market it is it could only take a small enough stake to alert them to it.

I would say chip away at it for as long as you can!

jacool

The market has been taken down.
If it doesn't return this evening I'll post the screenshots here tomorrow.
I had a dream, for all of 5 hours !

UrbanSea

Did you place the bets

clived2

clived2 wrote: »

My advice get as much on as soon as possibe, If you spotted an annomally,
you can be sure others have or will, or they will see it and fix it.

jacool wrote: »

The market has been taken down.
If it doesn't return this evening I'll post the screenshots here tomorrow.
I had a dream, for all of 5 hours !

I hope you followed the advice you were looking for;)

jacool

Hi guys, because I was stuck at work I never got on and am sickened that it got pulled. Someone else must have logged on and bet big.
It was a South African bookie who offered these odds on the Monday Millions draw.
Bonus Number: 19/20 Less than 25 19/20 More than 25 45/1 25
Then it was 11/2 any named number drawn, from 01 up to 49!!!!!
My gamble was to be based on the "six number total" spread where there was huge value in the low totals, based on all previous results.

Their pricing gaffe was to have 49 numbers not the actual 39, but if they closed the market, they may well have voided all bets too. The best value was the 16-1 on offer for the total 101-110 a winner in 4 of the last 10 draws that I had done stats for.
On mature reflection last night's total was actually 154, which fell outside the 83% parameter, so I actually got out of jail ! Phew!!!!

whatsupdoc?

It was a South African bookie who offered these odds on the Monday Millions draw

I don't what bookie it was but would that not set alarm bells ringing?