Big Names in Danger of Losing Seat

Pal

I'd like to know what you all think.

Any big surprises looming ?

analucija

Brian Cowen?

EggsAckley

Brian Lenihan

Bottle_of_Smoke

Michael Mansergh. Hope he still hangs around as a political commentator though.

John Gormley. Obvious reasons, I hope he keeps his seat personally.

gent9662

Conor Lenihan

EggsAckley

dclane wrote: »

Conor Lenihan

Big name?

vallo

Mary Hanafin:)

quidestveritas?

I suspect ALL of the following:

Mary Hanafin
Barry Andrews
Chris Andrews
Conor Lenihan (Brian might just scrape in now that it is a four-seater)
John O'Donoghue
Sean Haughey

Have a sneaking feeling Mary Coughlan is not safe either but that may be wishful thinking.

seamus

You can pretty much take your pick in Dublin judging by latest polls (including the boards one)

Cyprian Brady (though I wouldn't consider him "big" except for being a Bertie-buddy)
Paul Gogarty (again not big, but a known name)
Sean Haughey of the Haughey/Lemass Dynasty
Pat Carey
Conor Lenihan
Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews are under serious threat

Some commentators reckon that Brian Lenihan may be the only FFer to get a seat in Dublin, but I reckon the likes of Mary Hanafin will get in on transfers. Problem when looking for "big names" to lose out, you find that most of the big names have decided not to run this time around. Their egos are too fragile to take the pasting.

The number of independents running when you look at the lists is quite astounding. Clearly people have decided enough is enough and they want to make things happen themselves. And more power to them. Wicklow for example has 14 independents. I reckon this is a bad thing for FF. FF voters may be somewhat on the fence, but won't be willing to vote for one of the other parties. A new independent, perhaps a local, is much more likely to grab their vote and the FF vote is badly diluted.
It could also mean that FF get a bigger swing in on transfers.

snickerpuss

I would love if Sean Haughey lost his seat. Here's to hoping!

Burning Eclipse

Not a big name really, but Peter Power in Limerick (city) will lose his seat.

county man

Is Willie O Dea certain to win a seat?I presume he is but you never know.

Lapin

Mary Coughlan
Mary Hanafin
Mary O'Rourke.

Leslie91

1 of Mary Hanafin/Barry Andrews.
Eamon Ryan looking dodgy in Dub Sth.
Gormley obviously.
I hope Conor (WTF will I do if I can't waste time scratching my arse as a TD?) Lenihan. (btw answer is nada - lad is a moron extraordinaire)

raymon

Dick roche, I hope he goes for making us all look like stupid liars , in international television interviews regarding IMF. Shame on you Dick roche you clown

Pal

what about Mary Coughlan ?

Is she safe ?

golfball37

Martin Ferris

Flimbos

EggsAckley wrote: »

Brian Lenihan

I'd love to see Lenny lose his seat as the Boards.ie poll would suggest. But I think there's still a FF stronghold in the Castleknock area and thanks to older voters, he'll probably get the last seat.

I could see the likes of John Curran, Eamon Ryan, Barry Andrews, John Gormley and Conor Lenihan losing out though.

You'd miss Conor Lenihan for his performances on the Vincent Browne show alone!

gcgirl

The only FF er who will easily keep his seat is Michael Martin

Maars

Buhidma Hussein Hamed, Dublin South. Doesn't have a seat to lose but you'll be hard pressed to find a bigger name.

ednwireland

Pal wrote: »

what about Mary Coughlan ?

Is she safe ?

nope, looks like a complete bunfight for the 3 seats between pringle, doherty, mcginley and coughlan. people round here think she may be fighting for the 3rd seat (heres hoping)

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/elections/latest-news/coughlan-heartland-fears-for-her-safety-2535805.html

and
http://www.donegaldaily.com/2011/02/13/election-2011-coughlan-will-lose-seat-to-pringle-says-sunday-independent/

(whcih was from the indo's election guide)

Jack Sheehan

I've heard some talk that Sean Haughey may keep his seat based on very good local support/a very strong local machine.

leincar

I would(will) have the greatest of evil chuckles if Dick Roche loses his seat. I have had reason to meet him in Europe on a couple of occasions and a more pompous, egotistical buffon I have yet to meet. I really hope that is my Michael Portillo moment.

Others at risk would include John O'Donoghue for FF. All the greens and pretty much most of the previous FF front bench except Martin.

Rubik.

Of the remaining Cabinet Ministers, only Brian Lenihan and Eamon O' Cuiv look certain of regaining their seat. Trevor Sargent is likely to be the only green left. Mary O'Rourke, Martin Mansergh, Frank Fahey...(there is just to many ff'ers to name) are going to struggle.

jmayo

leincar wrote: »

I would(will) have the greatest of evil chuckles if Dick Roche loses his seat. I have had reason to meet him in Europe on a couple of occasions and a more pompous, egotistical buffon I have yet to meet. I really hope that is my Michael Portillo moment.

Others at risk would include John O'Donoghue for FF. All the greens and pretty much most of the previous FF front bench except Martin.

I have noticed a few roche posters in Wicklow defaced with eithe dickhead on them or IMF scrawled across them.
I do recall hearting him being interviewed on radio one evening and he quiet brazeningly stated that he had a big Lexus state car because he as a minister needed a big car that offered more protection in case of an accident.

I would not be so sure about o'donoghue, much like o'dea as I think enough muppets will vote for them. :mad:

Rubik. wrote: »

Of the remaining Cabinet Ministers, only Brian Lenihan and Eamon O' Cuiv look certain of regaining their seat. Trevor Sargent is likely to be the only green left. Mary O'Rourke, Martin Mansergh, Frank Fahey...(there is just to many ff'ers to name) are going to struggle.

Oh please yes lets see farnk "40 gaffs, give away our resources and look after my constituents with government funds" faehy get his come uppance.

gcgirl

I'd stick Dick in a 88 Peugeot 205 actually stick him in the boot and go across the Wicklow gap fast might bring a shovel too :-)

Sergeant

I'm hoping Mother O'Rourke loses her seat and that the new Government enacts emergency legislation to ban her from the radio.

Frank Fahy losing his seat would be no great loss to Irish political life. Galway West is a volatile constituency.

flutered

according to the boards poll odea and power are history, in limerick.

juuge

raymon wrote: »

Dick roche, I hope he goes for making us all look like stupid liars , in international television interviews regarding IMF. Shame on you Dick roche you clown

+1

PeterIanStaker

I'd love to see Dillie O'Wee lose his seat.

PeterIanStaker

flutered wrote: »

according to the boards poll odea and power are history, in limerick.

Ould wans don't go on Boards though, sadly.

nesf

flutered wrote: »

according to the boards poll odea and power are history, in limerick.

I wouldn't take the boards poll that seriously for FF, and to a lesser extent FG.

Killer Pigeon

Barbra Streisand

Rubik.

Sergeant wrote: »

Frank Fahy losing his seat would be no great loss to Irish political life. Galway West is a volatile constituency.

FF won't win two seats in Galway west, so Fahy and O'Cuiv will be fighting for the one seat and O'Cuiv should come out on top.

Stroke Politics

Willie O'Perjeror losing his seat would be the perfect Michael Portillo/Michael McDowell moment of Election '11. Would love it.......

seamus

Stroke Politics wrote: »

Willie O'Perjeror losing his seat would be the perfect Michael Portillo/Michael McDowell moment of Election '11. Would love it.......

It's probably the least likely thing to happen in this election tbh.
At the last election O'Dea got well over twice the quota to be elected on first count - 40% of the Limerick East voters gave first preference to Willie O'Dea. That's phenomenal in election terms. I really can't see him taking that much of a dive, he's something of a celebrity in those parts.

Agent Smith

seamus wrote: »

It's probably the least likely thing to happen in this election tbh.
At the last election O'Dea got well over twice the quota to be elected on first count - 40% of the Limerick East voters gave first preference to Willie O'Dea. That's phenomenal in election terms. I really can't see him taking that much of a dive, he's something of a celebrity in those parts.

why wouldnt he be? with a song and everything....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY4ure_GSHw

Burning Eclipse

seamus wrote: »

It's probably the least likely thing to happen in this election tbh.
At the last election O'Dea got well over twice the quota to be elected on first count - 40% of the Limerick East voters gave first preference to Willie O'Dea. That's phenomenal in election terms. I really can't see him taking that much of a dive, he's something of a celebrity in those parts.

Willie will take a moderate dive in numbers, but still get elected imo. The reason for the dive is two-fold.

Primarily, the electoral boundary has changed, and now omits what was his stronghold - East County Limerick. Hospital, Kilteely, etc... I'd bet he took at least 60-70% of votes in these areas. If you weren't ardent FG or Labour, he probably got your first preference. Now he has to rely on city voters alone.

Secondly, that debacle last year and the fact that he is a Fianna Fail candidate will also hurt his numbers. A knock on effect of this is that Peter Power hasn't got a snowballs chance in hell of getting elected!