Red Mills Trial Hurdle

HigginsJ

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=312988&meetingid=&date=2011-02-19&ref=form&refsite=

Looks to be a cracking entry list for this race. Cant wait to see Dunguib back again. Wont be easy race to win but a good performance should put him spot on for the Champion.

RichieLawlor

HigginsJ wrote: »

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=312988&meetingid=&date=2011-02-19&ref=form&refsite=

Looks to be a cracking entry list for this race. Cant wait to see Dunguib back again. Wont be easy race to win but a good performance should put him spot on for the Champion.

Dunguib will hack up on the bridle in a slow run race again and all the hype mechants will be back out again

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Dunguib will hack up on the bridle in a slow run race again and all the hype mechants will be back out again

Me included Back him now for next years Jewson Richie if you can persuade any bookie/mate/anyone to give you a price, chasing over 2m4f will be he's game

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Me included Back him now for next years Jewson Richie if you can persuade any bookie/mate/anyone to give you a price, chasing over 2m4f will be he's game

No chance, Fenton has already said he hope Dunguib never has to jump a fence. He can't jump hurdles so fences are out of the question.

HigginsJ

Dont see the race being that slowly run and if you beat Fiveforthree, Voler La Vedette and Blackstairmountain on the bridle then you are pretty decent

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

No chance, Fenton has already said he hope Dunguib never has to jump a fence. He can't jump hurdles so fences are out of the question.

Fenton quoted in yesterdays RP saying that Dunquib will go novice chasing next season and in fairness it is the shape and he's lack of slickness over hurdles that is poor, it might not be such a problem over larger obstacles.

He actuallty hurdled fine in last years supreme despite popular opinion, people heard before the race, he cant hurdle to slow over them its the only way he can be beaten, then when beaten lazy analysts assumed it was due to hes hurdling, fact is the jockey( a rough description :rolleyes:) gave up lenghts by going so wide and he was still only beaten 2 1/2l in what is now looking like it was a vintage Supreme.

Nulty

Jockeys follow instructions premierstone

premierstone

Nulty wrote: »

Jockeys follow instructions premierstone

Dont even get me started on Fenton Nulty, he wouldnt train ivy to grow up a wall tbh.

finbarrk

premierstone wrote: »

Dont even get me started on Fenton Nulty, he wouldnt train ivy to grow up a wall tbh.

Thats a bit harsh.

HigginsJ

Disaster to be sticking with o'connell. Horse is so talented does his best to overcome it.

RichieLawlor

HigginsJ wrote: »

Dont see the race being that slowly run and if you beat Fiveforthree, Voler La Vedette and Blackstairmountain on the bridle then you are pretty decent

Fiveforthree and VolerLV wont run and Blackstairsmountain has been disapointing this year

Nulty

premierstone wrote: »

Dont even get me started on Fenton Nulty, he wouldnt train ivy to grow up a wall tbh.

I'm just saying you blame the jockey when you obviously mean to blame the tactics/instructions.

mdwexford

premierstone wrote: »

Fenton quoted in yesterdays RP saying that Dunquib will go novice chasing next season and in fairness it is the shape and he's lack of slickness over hurdles that is poor, it might not be such a problem over larger obstacles.

He actuallty hurdled fine in last years supreme despite popular opinion, people heard before the race, he cant hurdle to slow over them its the only way he can be beaten, then when beaten lazy analysts assumed it was due to hes hurdling, fact is the jockey( a rough description :rolleyes:) gave up lenghts by going so wide and he was still only beaten 2 1/2l in what is now looking like it was a vintage Supreme.

Get Me Out Of Here and Dunguib havent done anything since the Sup Nov and Oscar Whisky is the most over hyped horse ive seen in a while, his official rating of 165 is ludicrous for beating trees.

premierstone

Nulty wrote: »

I'm just saying you blame the jockey when you obviously mean to blame the tactics/instructions.

Point taken but my opinion on O'Connell are based on far more than this one race

premierstone

mdwexford wrote: »

Get Me Out Of Here and Dunguib havent done anything since the Sup Nov and Oscar Whisky is the most over hyped horse ive seen in a while, his official rating of 165 is ludicrous for beating trees.

Now here, GMOOH and Dunquib have had a combined total of two races, both in tough handicaps under top weight where lets just say it was questionable as to whether the jockey attempted to attain the best possible finishing position :rolleyes:

And as for Oscar Whiskey, well if Celestial Halo, Any Given Day, Karabak and Won in the Dark are trees you must have very high standards, and a win often has a lot more substance than the opposition beaten, try look beyond the results page and actually watch how a horse wins a race.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Now here, GMOOH and Dunquib have had a combined total of two races, both in tough handicaps under top weight where lets just say it was questionable as to whether the jockey attempted to attain the best possible finishing position :rolleyes:

And as for Oscar Whiskey, well if Celestial Halo, Any Given Day, Karabak and Won in the Dark are trees you must have very high standards, and a win often has a lot more substance than the opposition beaten, try look beyond the results page and actually watch how a horse wins a race.

I think your forgetting Dunguib getting beaten out if sight at Punchestown when starting favorite for the CH there

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I think your forgetting Dunguib getting beaten out if sight at Punchestown when starting favorite for the CH there

Yes sorry Richie, thank you for pulling me up on that, I have an excuse for that aswell tho Personally think he was well over the top at that stage and should never have went to Punch, thats why they have kept him fresh this year i imagine, although obv. they hat'nt planed on keeping him quite this fresh.

UrbanSea

If Dunguib went on to the champion hurdle I wouldn't put him better than about 7th,beaten about 18 lengths

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

If Dunguib went on to the champion hurdle I wouldn't put him better than about 7th,beaten about 18 lengths

Where do you think Menorah will finish?

UrbanSea

First two.

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

First two.

So menorah has improved 16lenghts plus since last year and Dunquib hasnt improved at all and will be ridden horribly again, thats a lot of assumptions.

Btw I fully accept Menorah to finish ahead of Dunquib but I think people are far two dissmissive of he's chances and while many over hyped the horse leading up to last year, an equal number are under estimating him, the truth lies somewhere in between and if he comes through Saturday unscathed and is over whatever blood cell problem held him up, there will be far worse e/w 20/1 shots at the festival.

UrbanSea

The horse can't jump. Whatever about getting close in the Supreme last year,this year's champion looks very strong and he won't have a breather if he's losing ground at every hurdle. I do think Menorah has improved about 10 pounds though.

Squeakers123

Dunguib was far too keen at Punchestown and I do agree with the assertion that his jumping was ok at cheltenham but got beaten because of jockey inexperience, whether or not he'll be good enough to win a champion hurdle remains to be seen but looking forward to saturday and see how he runs after the long break

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

The horse can't jump. Whatever about getting close in the Supreme last year,this year's champion looks very strong and he won't have a breather if he's losing ground at every hurdle. I do think Menorah has improved about 10 pounds though.

He has only really jumped at speed once in last years Supreme and despite popular belief jumped well, ok hes no Binocular in that regard but none of these are tbf, as I said im not saying he will finish ahead of Menorah but I do think he is the forgotten horse in the race.

mdwexford

premierstone wrote: »

Now here, GMOOH and Dunquib have had a combined total of two races, both in tough handicaps under top weight where lets just say it was questionable as to whether the jockey attempted to attain the best possible finishing position :rolleyes:

And as for Oscar Whiskey, well if Celestial Halo, Any Given Day, Karabak and Won in the Dark are trees you must have very high standards, and a win often has a lot more substance than the opposition beaten, try look beyond the results page and actually watch how a horse wins a race.

They have had three races and been well beaten on all three occasions.
So how can you be calling it a vintage Supreme on that basis so far??

Yes trees was just over stating my point but AGD is just an improving handicapper, CH fell out of love with racing a long time ago and Karabak is very unreliable.

To get an OR of 165 for that run is bonkers imo.

Yes he seemed to win with a certain amount in hand.

Lol yes i only look at the results page, ive no idea when i horse wins easily :rolleyes:

premierstone wrote: »

So menorah has improved 16lenghts plus since last year and Dunquib hasnt improved at all and will be ridden horribly again, thats a lot of assumptions.

Btw I fully accept Menorah to finish ahead of Dunquib but I think people are far two dissmissive of he's chances and while many over hyped the horse leading up to last year, an equal number are under estimating him, the truth lies somewhere in between and if he comes through Saturday unscathed and is over whatever blood cell problem held him up, there will be far worse e/w 20/1 shots at the festival.

Its pretty obvious to all Menorah has improved at least a stone this season.
Dunguib hasnt ran so how is anyone to know if he will be better this year, i very much doubt he will have improved by the 18lbs or so required to have him ahead of Menorah though.

UrbanSea

I wouldn't even be surprised if he were to be beaten Sunday. Not the easiest race to come back to.

Morgans

I dont think Dunguib jumped badly in the Supreme. Not great, but not badly. Of course jumping against Binocular and the best out there will be under even more pressure where any mistake will mean curtains. Be that as it may, the only way Dunguib deserved to be an even money favourite was if there was no potential champion hurlders in the field, and that Dunguib using his speed could outclass them. He was unlucky that there were two better horses in the field, one that won the Tote Gold Trophy and is ripe to bounce back to form in the next month, and the winner a justifiable second favourite for this race. There is absolutely no shame in that. He is a fine horse, BUT those who are still holding onto the belief that the reason he lost was the inexperienced jockey are 100% wrong. I think its impossible to be more wrong. Of course, part of the reason that he jumped better was that he was wider, but the amount of ground lost by going wide is grossly exaggerated by Dunguib fans. Its still astounding that he was favourite at punchestown.

What he doesnt have in his favour for this year is a) trainer b) lack of actual experience and c) age and potential to improve.

UrbanSea

I was shocked that he went into the Irish race as favourite as I said before. People backing him that short that day didn't deserve to win,which they didn't

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

I was shocked that he went into the Irish race as favourite as I said before. People backing him that short that day didn't deserve to win,which they didn't

Agreed and it was the only time he has ran that I didnt back him, I think it was a case of people who had got stung in the supreme looking to recoup their losses.

premierstone

mdwexford wrote: »

They have had three races and been well beaten on all three occasions.
So how can you be calling it a vintage Supreme on that basis so far??

Yes trees was just over stating my point but AGD is just an improving handicapper, CH fell out of love with racing a long time ago and Karabak is very unreliable.

To get an OR of 165 for that run is bonkers imo.

Yes he seemed to win with a certain amount in hand.

Lol yes i only look at the results page, ive no idea when i horse wins easily :rolleyes:



Its pretty obvious to all Menorah has improved at least a stone this season.
Dunguib hasnt ran so how is anyone to know if he will be better this year, i very much doubt he will have improved by the 18lbs or so required to have him ahead of Menorah though.

Yes they have had three, actually 4 as of 2 hours ago and all have been very dissapointing, GMOOH seems to have completely gone off the boil.

If Menorah has improved a stone and it is so obvious then you must be having the bisggest bet of your life on Cue Card to win this years Supreme.

Again I have not said Dunquib will finish ahead of Menorah, I merely stated he is the forgotten horse in the race and @ 20/1 represents a good e/w bet.

UrbanSea

Get Me Out Of Here could not have regressed further. Dunguib just has 2 competitors tomorrow. If he isn't winning tomorrow realistically he won't be anywhere near a CH horse.