Welby gaining momentum

Reasonable

Looks like Cllr. Thomas Welby is gaining momentum in Galway West and is very much in the frame for a seat. Paddypower has dropped his odds from 14-1 on Sunday to 6-1 at present. Local and national media have him very much in the frame for a seat. However local bookies John Mulhollands had him at 12-1 yesterday. Something is not adding up.

themorg

He's related to a friend of a friend and by all accounts he believes he's in with a strong shout. John Mul has cut his price back to 9/1 today. I just had a small flutter...Cheers.

hoorsmelt

Welby has no base outside Oughterard. He doesn't have a chance of getting in.

R28

hoorsmelt wrote: »

Welby has no base outside Oughterard. He doesn't have a chance of getting in.

I'd agree with this. I don't think he's showing up on anyones radar outside of his base.

Haven't heard his name being mentioned outside of this thread actually...

hoorsmelt

R28 wrote: »

I'd agree with this. I don't think he's showing up on anyones radar outside of his base.

Haven't heard his name being mentioned outside of this thread actually...

Tbh, I'd be fairly dubious about the motives of the 2 original posters: both signed up in Feb 2011, both with one post on one topic? Call me paranoid but I'd imagine that they might have something to do with his campaign.

themorg

Thats strange, he topped the poll in the last local elections in the Connemara area, was elected on the first count and received the third highest vote in County Galway (2,584). Oughterard aint that big.

skelliser

welby hasnt a hope of being elected!

the above posters are just shills!

end off!

hoorsmelt

themorg wrote: »

Thats strange, he topped the poll in the last local elections in the Connemara area, was elected on the first count and received the third highest vote in County Galway (2,584). Oughterard aint that big.

That's more or less the same as he received in the 2007 GE when he got 2329 before being eliminated. In other words his vote is flatlining. And alot of Connemara people would know him and perhaps vote for him as Oughterard is one of the main towns in South Connemara. He's not going to get in.

tricky D

hoorsmelt wrote: »

Tbh, I'd be fairly dubious about the motives of the 2 original posters: both signed up in Feb 2011, both with one post on one topic? Call me paranoid but I'd imagine that they might have something to do with his campaign.

The smell of shill off them is strong.

Reasonable

Yes folks, I know Cllr. Welby well. (BSM).

Galway West electorate can be categorised into geographical locations as follows:
Galway City 48%
Connemara 33%
Oranmore 19%

2004 Local Election (Connemara Only) FPV 1,110 (6.6%)
2007 General Election (Galway West) FPV 1,894 (3.44%)
2009 Local Election (Connemara Only) FPV 2,584 (15.69%)

Flatlining theory doesn't hold much water.................

R28

Reasonable wrote: »

Yes folks, I know Cllr. Welby well. (BSM).

Galway West electorate can be categorised into geographical locations as follows:
Galway City 48%
Connemara 33%
Oranmore 19%

2004 Local Election (Connemara Only) FPV 1,110 (6.6%)
2007 General Election (Galway West) FPV 1,894 (3.44%)
2009 Local Election (Connemara Only) FPV 2,584 (15.69%)

Flatlining theory doesn't hold much water.................

This actually supports the flatlining theory....the number of first preferences he received in 2007 are in line with his Connemara results. As was said above, few from outside his area are going to vote for him.

Seems like more gombeen local politics trying to make its way into national politics. He certainly won't be getting any votes from me or anyone I know for that matter.

Reasonable

R28 wrote: »

This actually supports the flatlining theory....the number of first preferences he received in 2007 are in line with his Connemara results. As was said above, few from outside his area are going to vote for him.

Seems like more gombeen local politics trying to make its way into national politics. He certainly won't be getting any votes from me or anyone I know for that matter.

I'm missing something here.....

Taking the three figures and not just 2004 and 2007 (Irrespective of your voting allegiance) can you explain why you think the figures 'actually supports the flatlining theory..."

R28

Reasonable wrote: »

I'm missing something here.....

Taking the three figures and not just 2004 and 2007 (Irrespective of your voting allegiance) can you explain why you think the figures 'actually supports the flatlining theory..."

He didn't poll significantly more in 2007 then he did in 2004. Since this was a GE we can assume that the bulk of his support came from his locality. He did gain some more votes in the local elections in 2009, but again that was local....his increase there prob just came from increased exposure during the 2007 election.

There's no evidence here to suggest that anyone from outside his local area will be voting for him. I'll I see is the usual local gombeen politics as usual. Who in the rest of the constituency is going to be voting for him?

He's not going to get elected. Thankfully, as after having a look at him he seems like a political clone of Grealish.

Reasonable

R28 wrote: »

He didn't poll significantly more in 2007 then he did in 2004. Since this was a GE we can assume that the bulk of his support came from his locality. He did gain some more votes in the local elections in 2009, but again that was local....his increase there prob just came from increased exposure during the 2007 election.

There's no evidence here to suggest that anyone from outside his local area will be voting for him. I'll I see is the usual local gombeen politics as usual. Who in the rest of the constituency is going to be voting for him?

R28 - Do you have access to the local tallys? You seem very sure of where Cllr. Welby gaets his vote. Do you mean his local vote is Oughterard or Connemara/

To elaborate slightly on your line of thinking if Cllr. Welby's vote in 2011 GE is in line with his vote in the 2009 'locals' then he should poll approximately 7.9% (15.69% FPV in 2009).

So you're still saying he's flatlining........

BTW I too think Eamon Walsh is a worthy candidate and will definitely be in line for a good preference.

Do you think I should change my user name to Gombeen????:rolleyes: