Should Kempes go for the Gold Cup or Ryanair?

Nulty

Whatever your opinions about his chances of winning races at Cheltenham, which race do you think he would have the best chance in?

UrbanSea

Gold Cup

Ryanair. Winning a Hennessy against grade 2/3 horses doesn't make him an instant Gold Cup horse.

Edit:I forgot about his win at the end of last season.I still say Ryanair. Gold Cup is a different class to that race yesterday and an end of year grade 1 in Ireland

Goldcupfav

Little bit of a pointless poll as the horse is going to run in the Gold Cup. Both Mullins and JP are going to want to have a runner in the big one. However i do think he's best chance would be in the Ryanair.

Nulty

Gold Cup

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Little bit of a pointless poll as the horse is going to run in the Gold Cup. Both Mullins and JP are going to want to have a runner in the big one. However i do think he's best chance would be in the Ryanair.

How is the poll pointless?

RichieLawlor

The Gold Cup obv.

He reminds me a bit of War Of Attrition And has the potential to be a superstar.

I love a horse who starts out in top class 2 mile hurdles and progresses to staying chaser.

Goldcupfav

Nulty wrote: »

How is the poll pointless?

Cause the horse is 100% going to run in the Gold Cup.

Nulty

Gold Cup

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Cause the horse is 100% going to run in the Gold Cup.

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

The Gold Cup obv.

He reminds me a bit of War Of Attrition And has the potential to be a superstar.

I love a horse who starts out in top class 2 mile hurdles and progresses to staying chaser.

He wont be anywhere near a superstar imo.

Are you basing that solely on WOA, its usually not two things that go hand in hand.

Morgans

Yeah. Still has it to prove but if he was mine I would prefer him to be found out in the Gold Cup than the Ryanair. In a year where there are question marks over the undoubted class of the field, he deserves the chance to prove connections wrong. More than War of Attrition, he has more of an Imperial Call feel about it. Imperial Call didn't have to face a handful of 175+ horses though.

Nulty

Gold Cup

Fair enough, conections would prefer to win the Gold Cup but I think he has a better chance of winning the Ryanair. This is similar to Somersby in that I think he should go for the Champion Chase for the same reasons as his trainer (Vs Masster Minded, best runs @ 2m, QMCC is the more prestigious race, he can go Ryanair next year).

Kempes' dilemma is almost mirror - all these things apply in reverse ie, longer trip instead of shorter (Speed for Ryanair, beat poor G1 horses @ 3m, Gold Cup next year, except GC is more prestigious race). If he was mine I'd want a gold cup horse but he has a better chance of winning the Ryanair. He's perfect Ryanair horse.

I bet Somersby places higher than Kempes does if they go for their targeted races. I'd bet the opposite if Kempes went the Ryanair.

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

He wont be anywhere near a superstar imo.

Are you basing that solely on WOA, its usually not two things that go hand in hand.

War of Attrition, Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star were all good 2m hurdlers but not top class so saying they don't go hand in hand is a bit off.

Kempes has a similar profile. He was well fancied for the Supreme Novices and obv stays well and has a nice turn of foot. Plus he was traveling better than anything when falling in the Lexus. And very unexposed aswell

I think I'm talking myself into backing this fella for the GC.

kfallon

He may aswell go in the Gold Cup cos the likes of Kauto and Denman are on a downward spiral and won't be winning. Imperial Commander hasn't run since Haydock so nobody is sure how he'll perform in March (tho history suggests he'll defo run his race but is he tool old already). Long Run might or might not be suited by Cheltenham, jury is still out on Diamond Harry imo, Midnight Chase is only a handicapper and the two very interesting horses for me at the start of the season, Weapons Amnesty and Burton Port, have both been ruled out for the season.

With so many question marks over the field it's worth a try at the GC!

Colonel Sanders

Gold Cup. Would need to improve again obviously but has looked a different horse since stepping up in trip

Extra 2f at Cheltenham but the way he finished Sunday would make you hope he'll see it out no problem

gscully

kfallon wrote: »

He may aswell go in the Gold Cup cos the likes of Kauto and Denman are on a downward spiral and won't be winning. Imperial Commander hasn't run since Haydock so nobody is sure how he'll perform in March (tho history suggests he'll defo run his race but is he tool old already). Long Run might or might not be suited by Cheltenham, jury is still out on Diamond Harry imo, Midnight Chase is only a handicapper and the two very interesting horses for me at the start of the season, Weapons Amnesty and Burton Port, have both been ruled out for the season.

With so many question marks over the field it's worth a try at the GC!

Denman on a downward spiral? Just because he lost a race to a good horse in Diamond Harry while giving him almost two stone? I think you'll find that he is rated just as highly as he has ever been after that race, and six lbs higher than when he won the Gold Cup.

Panrich

gscully wrote: »

Denman on a downward spiral? Just because he lost a race to a good horse in Diamond Harry while giving him almost two stone? I think you'll find that he is rated just as highly as he has ever been after that race, and six lbs higher than when he won the Gold Cup.

Last horse older than 10 to win the Gold Cup? What a Myth, 42 years ago.

premierstone

Panrich wrote: »

Last horse older than 10 to win the Gold Cup? What a Myth, 42 years ago.

While I dont think Denman will win, you can find a trend or stat to get everyone of them beaten, treands and stats are a usefull guide but no more than that, some people and I dont mean you personally place far too much emphasis on them.

gscully

Panrich wrote: »

Last horse older than 10 to win the Gold Cup? What a Myth, 42 years ago.

I wasn't disputing whether a horse older than ten can win or not. I challenge the notion that Denman is on a downward spiral, when the ratings suggest he's as good as ever.

mdwexford

I think he hasnt been the same since his Gold Cup win.

yaboya1

RichieLawlor wrote: »

War of Attrition, Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star were all good 2m hurdlers but not top class so saying they don't go hand in hand is a bit off.

Kempes has a similar profile. He was well fancied for the Supreme Novices and obv stays well and has a nice turn of foot. Plus he was traveling better than anything when falling in the Lexus. And very unexposed aswell

I think I'm talking myself into backing this fella for the GC.

War of Attrition, Kicking King & Best Mate all ran 2nd in the Supreme Novice's. Kempes was 12th. Horses who run badly once at the festival tend to repeat the feat more often than not.
Kempes won a very weak Irish Hennessy, but do you honestly think Imperial Commander, Kauto Star, Denman, Long Run, Diamond Harry etc wouldn't have won it just as easily.
He started his career on the flat. How many Gold Cup winners have that profile?
At 66/1 maybe he was worth a small bet e/w but not at the current prices.

RichieLawlor

yaboya1 wrote: »

War of Attrition, Kicking King & Best Mate all ran 2nd in the Supreme Novice's. Kempes was 12th. Horses who run badly once at the festival tend to repeat the feat more often than not.
Kempes won a very weak Irish Hennessy, but do you honestly think Imperial Commander, Kauto Star, Denman, Long Run, Diamond Harry etc wouldn't have won it just as easily.
He started his career on the flat. How many Gold Cup winners have that profile?
At 66/1 maybe he was worth a small bet e/w but not at the current prices.

Kempes nearly went at the first in that Supreme and was never traveling after. A weak excuse but an excuse all the same.

I'm not really a stats man but all the principles have something against them in that respect.

Imperial Commander is probably the most likely winner but at 20/1 I'm sticking with Kempes. Not a heavy betting race for me just for interest

hucklebuck

Gold Cup

I would throw him in the Ryanair. I can't look past Imperial Commander, I expect Denman and Diamond Harry to be competitive too.

Interesting Denman has had a breathing op.