Will Mattie Mc Grath hold his seat in South Tipp

Vizzy

Looking at the results so far on the GE11 on boards ( I know it is early days yet) I wonder will Mattie hold his seat.
Haven't seen any sign of him yet and his posters are fairly low profile.
I wonder,i wonder !!

Tipp Man

There is a good chance he might hold onto it

I would say that Tom Hayes (FG) will top the pole and is almost guaranteed to get in

I think McNally (GP) and Brown (SF) haven't a hope in hell

That leave Murphy (FG) Mansergh (FF) Mcgrath (IND) Prendergast (LAB) and Healy (IND) battling it out for 2 seats.

I think that Mansergh is the weakest of those and won't get elected.
Healy has a good chance although you'd wonder will himself and Prendergast be splitting the vote - 1 of them to get in IMO

that leave McGrath to battle it out with Murphy for the final seat, I know very little about Murphy but I would be of the opinion that if it was a straight shoutout between the 2 I think McGrath would probably scrap through

All guesswork of course:D

Rabble Rabble

Tipp Man wrote: »

There is a good chance he might hold onto it

I would say that Tom Hayes (FG) will top the pole and is almost guaranteed to get in

I think McNally (GP) and Brown (SF) haven't a hope in hell

That leave Murphy (FG) Mansergh (FF) Mcgrath (IND) Prendergast (LAB) and Healy (IND) battling it out for 2 seats.

I think that Mansergh is the weakest of those and won't get elected.
Healy has a good chance although you'd wonder will himself and Prendergast be splitting the vote - 1 of them to get in IMO

that leave McGrath to battle it out with Murphy for the final seat, I know very little about Murphy but I would be of the opinion that if it was a straight shoutout between the 2 I think McGrath would probably scrap through

All guesswork of course:D

All depends on transfers - will McGrath get the transfers from Manseragh?

whydoibother?

I think he'll struggle. He never seems to have anything important to say for someone who's been in the news so much. He's just worked out that the Government are very unpopular and that he should go against them and he's gotten a lot of publicity for doing that without putting forward an alternative. I hope people can see through that.

Tipp Man

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

All depends on transfers - will McGrath get the transfers from Manseragh?

You would have to imagine that he'll get a lot of Manseragh's tranfers - I think they're would be quite a lot of staunch FF'ers in South Tipp and although McGrath is running as an independent he would be seen as being closely linked to FF - so if people are going to vote for Manseragh then i think he will get the transfers

Tipp Man

whydoibother? wrote: »

I think he'll struggle. He never seems to have anything important to say for someone who's been in the news so much. He's just worked out that the Government are very unpopular and that he should go against them and he's gotten a lot of publicity for doing that without putting forward an alternative. I hope people can see through that.

I certainly wouldn't disagree with what you say

He got a lot of media time but managed to say nothing of any substance

touts

Vizzy wrote: »

Looking at the results so far on the GE11 on boards ( I know it is early days yet) I wonder will Mattie hold his seat.
Haven't seen any sign of him yet and his posters are fairly low profile.
I wonder,i wonder !!

I don't think Mattie's core vote comes from people who use boards.ie (or even this newfangled internet yoke). He is an old style politician for old style voters.

whydoibother?

touts wrote: »

I don't think Mattie's core vote comes from people who use boards.ie (or even this newfangled internet yoke). He is an old style politician for old style voters.

True - but do you think the old style is dying? I'm not sure myself, but I think that people are a lot more media savvy, they can spot a PR stunt a lot more quickly now than they could in the past. I think it's easier for him to adopt that tactic in a constituency like South Tipp than it would be in a large urban area - all he has to do really is get involved in a few local events in a handful of key towns in South Tipp and suddenly he's "a great fella". It is textbook parish pump politics.

r3nu4l

Vizzy wrote: »

Looking at the results so far on the GE11 on boards ( I know it is early days yet) I wonder will Mattie hold his seat.
Haven't seen any sign of him yet and his posters are fairly low profile.
I wonder,i wonder !!

Well I was back in Ireland last week and saw two vans and a car sprayed with his mug all over them. This was in Cahir.

touts wrote: »

I don't think Mattie's core vote comes from people who use boards.ie (or even this newfangled internet yoke). He is an old style politician for old style voters.

Very true although having spoken to a few 'older' people last week they told me they wouldn't be voting for him (and they voted for him last time). Hopefully this means he won't get in.

How he has the gall to go 'independent' is beyond me. Like a rat deserting the sinking ship he decides to nail his colours to a different mast. Sickening really.

whydoibother?

I wouldn't necessarily blame a politician for deserting a party. I think it can be a good thing and blind loyalty should be discouraged. On the other hand, you're right, if it's purely a political stunt, it's not appreciated. I wonder about this question because I would have liked a lot more people to stand up to FF rather than tow the party line over the last few years and have criticized them for that, but if I'm then going to say it's purely a tactic when they do leave, basically they can't win. What I definitely do have a problem with is the fact that he puts forward no credible policy as an alternative. What was the point of going independent? In the case of Mattie McGrath, I do think it's a stunt.

telekon

whydoibother? wrote: »

I wouldn't necessarily blame a politician for deserting a party. I think it can be a good thing and blind loyalty should be discouraged. On the other hand, you're right, if it's purely a political stunt, it's not appreciated. I wonder about this question because I would have liked a lot more people to stand up to FF rather than tow the party line over the last few years and have criticized them for that, but if I'm then going to say it's purely a tactic when they do leave, basically they can't win. What I definitely do have a problem with is the fact that he puts forward no credible policy as an alternative. What was the point of going independent? In the case of Mattie McGrath, I do think it's a stunt.

I agree. Of course it's a cynical stroke by Mattie. If he was serious, he would have pulled out years ago and not at the a*se end of this woeful government's term in office.

Dymo

Tipp Man wrote: »

That leave Murphy (FG) Mansergh (FF) Mcgrath (IND) Prendergast (LAB) and Healy (IND) battling it out for 2 seats.

I think that Mansergh is the weakest of those and won't get elected.
Healy has a good chance although you'd wonder will himself and Prendergast be splitting the vote - 1 of them to get in IMO

that leave McGrath to battle it out with Murphy for the final seat, I know very little about Murphy but I would be of the opinion that if it was a straight shoutout between the 2 I think McGrath would probably scrap through

All guesswork of course:D

How many transfers will Michael Murphy get from Tom Hayes, especially if Tom Hayes tops the Quota on the first count. Will make it interesting and I would'ent underestimate the core FF voters that will give Mansergh the no 1. He could go very close. Not that he deserves it but some FF people only vote FF.

whydoibother?

I think that Michael Murphy will get a lot of transfers from Tom Hayes, because I thing Tom Hayes will be by far the most popular candidates, and a certain percentage of the people voting for him are bound apply the "party" philosophy of voting - deciding what party first and then giving all their highest preferences to them.

Not sure what will happen with Mansergh. Being the only FF candidate (am i right?) could mean that the hardcore FF will have to all give him their vote and that could work for him. He won't be split with McGrath for No.1's anymore. He might pick up a lot of old Mattie McGrath supporters who were die-hard FF. I'd imagine if you're extremely loyal to a party you wouldn't appreciate what McGrath has done.

ecarthy

whydoibother? wrote: »

I think he'll struggle. He never seems to have anything important to say for someone who's been in the news so much. He's just worked out that the Government are very unpopular and that he should go against them and he's gotten a lot of publicity for doing that without putting forward an alternative. I hope people can see through that.

Why do you bother???? What alternative have you given. Is it just the news clips and paper articles you go by. Thats not very media at all. Maybe do some research; look into what each of the candidates have been doing for the last few years, their press releases, Dail questions, Speeches, their national interests, their community efforts.

bleg

Bookies say no.

whydoibother?

ecarthy wrote: »

Why do you bother???? What alternative have you given. Is it just the news clips and paper articles you go by. Thats not very media at all. Maybe do some research; look into what each of the candidates have been doing for the last few years, their press releases, Dail questions, Speeches, their national interests, their community efforts.

What alternatives have I given? I wasn't being paid to help run the country last time I checked, but I have plenty opinions if you'd like to ask a more issue-specific question.

Is it just the news clips and paper articles that I go by? Let me answer the question about where I get my info from. Don't arrogantly make assumptions about where I get it and criticize me based on an answer you've invented. The first point is that national media are very important because they give an independent assessment of a person's contribution. A politician can present themselves look any way they want on their own website etc.

But even if we do go to his own website his list of "national priorities" reads like a list of vague, surface-scratching, populist, reactionary responses to the controversies that have occurred in recent times. http://www.mattiemcgrath.ie/
... Judges pay, maximum wage, punish bankers - all just make people feel better without helping the country - cheap populism.
... create jobs, support carers, full accountability and transparency - beautifully vague - how though?
... increase spending on health and education - really practical at this time :rolleyes:
... and my personal favourite - "Restoration of the spirit of rural Ireland" - now there's a lofty objective!


Community efforts? I have very little time for anything that could stray into "parish pump" politics. That's the biggest problem we have in this country. We need politicians to put the national interest first. This brings me onto the next point.

Refusing to support the Finance Bill was a political stunt and a dangerous one.

His view that drinking can "relax" drivers making them better made The Guardian. Apart from being insane, it's embarrassingly ignorant in relation to science and I don't want him representing me.

Blush_01

Having been at a somewhat lacklustre hustings debate with the candidates recently, Murphy came out on top.

Hayes appeared to be the typical old-style politician, promising the earth and only willing to deliver a crumpled photo of same.

Mansergh didn't put any kind of fight up at all, Browne and McNally didn't physically show up and Prendergast planted people in the audience to derail the debate (which frankly p!ssed me off).

Healy refused to answer any direct questions, instead preferring to waffle for 25 minutes at a time about nonsense and ending each banal blather with a firm belief that we should default on the IMF loans.

McGrath turned up late, said a truckload of nothing, and had one bored-looking daughter wearing a beanie with what appeared (for the duration of the debate) to say "Vote NO McGrath", as whatever way she had it twisted, the 1 was obscured. I thought it was fitting anyway.

I'm starting to think that I'll probably spoil my vote. None of them were particularly inspiring, and as I'm not at home to meet the canvassers, I feel like they couldn't give a toss about the electorate based on that debate.

iloveyoumum

i will be vting no 1 for manseagh no way will i be voting for mc grath :mad:

telekon

iloveyoumum wrote: »

i will be vting no 1 for manseagh no way will i be voting for mc grath :mad:

May I ask why?

Is the man even mentally stable?

We've all seen him on Vincent Browne...

Amtmann

McGrath will get a lot of votes from what I call the Killinascully Contingent. He is beloved of the greyhound lobby and the type of people whose profile picture on facebook is of two hounds pursuing a hare. He also has the support of many people who would have, say, 60 friends on Facebook, all of whom live within 5km of the facebook account holder.

Unfortunately I come from an area that is, in general, staunchly pro-Mattie. It's all about the potholes and the breeding bitches and the ooh-ahh-Mattie McGrath type appeal of the man.

By the way, I added Mattie as a friend on Facebook so that I could ask him some legitimate and courteous questions. One was if he still stands by his comment that alcohol can help some people to concentrate whilst driving, and the other related to what he thinks he can do for the country if elected as an independent. He deleted my question and defriended me within twenty minutes. All of the other comments on his page were sycophantic and Killinascully-esque. One girl even asked him if he could get three people some work placement:



Harmless enough - but not something a parliamentarian should be focusing on during these troubled times in my opinion. Plus, isn't canvassing supposed to disqualify?

telekon

'Bernie Hennessy' above should be ashamed of herself...its people like her that fuel the parish pump type politicics that plagues our country. :mad::mad::mad: