Are FF on track to win 4 seats in this election?

raymon

From the boards.ie poll it looks like FF is on track to win 4 seats in this election ( M Martin , WO Dea , Biffo Jr and maybe one more)

Is this poll believable ?

If not why not ?

I would like to think that FF could be wiped out .... but I think they will probably get a lot more seats - up to 12 if they are lucky

PomBear

O'Cuiv should unfortunately win one in Galway West so that's one more.

Can imagine they'll get one in Clare too.

Awful, I know.

BeardyFunzo

Unfortunately the profile of boards does not remotely match that of the country... they'll do far better than 4 seats...

raymon

BeardyFunzo wrote: »

Unfortunately the profile of boards does not remotely match that of the country... they'll do far better than 4 seats...

I agree - Seems to be out of step with all other polls -

So what makes a Boards.ie voter different .

Or to put it a different way - what makes a FF voter different ?

PomBear

raymon wrote: »

I agree - Seems to be out of step with all other polls -

So what makes a Boards.ie voter different .

Or to put it a different way - what makes a FF voter different ?

we're usually younger

Sir Oxman

No election's final seat tally is worked out on FPV.
It's all about the transfers though FF's FPV on here is lower IMO, mainly due to the absence of the grey vote on boards.

Pherekydes

raymon wrote: »

Is this poll believable ?

If not why not ?

Why do you think 8% = 4 seats?

raymon

Pherekydes wrote: »

Why do you think 8% = 4 seats?

Transfers

Liam Byrne

I used to defend Limerick's reputation, but if O'Dea is being voted for, then I'm going to write my city off as a lost cause.......voting for lawbreakers ?

gandalf

Boards demographics do not represent the more aged generations who are the core of FF support. I predict that FF will get around 30 seats in the next general election and get around 18% support.

Senna

Not enough of FF's usual demographics (farmers, OAP's) on boards to give a true representation of national voting.

Kristopherus

I think that, at this early stage, its the younger Boardie that has voted so far. You could hike the FF percentage up by 75% and you will be nearer the final percentage IMO. Take Clare, for instance, its beyond belief that FF will not get a seat, even though to spite FF, I'd love to see it happen. There are also a few other constituencies where FF have only 1 candidate. What will happen there if the grey FF vote stays at home?

Le King

raymon wrote: »

I agree - Seems to be out of step with all other polls -

So what makes a Boards.ie voter different .

Or to put it a different way - what makes a FF voter different ?

Fianna Fail have huge support from the older generations. Also Boards.ie voters would be younger including a lot of 16-22 year olds who aren't allowed to vote or haven't registered. Also there is the internet phoenomon going on here whereby a large amount of people wouldn't have the political knowledge or understanding of policies so they would tend to follow the general consensus on the matter, Fine Gael and Labour.

I wouldn't be surprised to see FF end up with 20-25% of the vote.

There will be a huge disparity between the Boards.ie vote and the actual vote compared to other polls.

SafeSurfer

Seamus Kirk is a dead cert Fianna Fail seat. Safest seat in the country.

jimmycrackcorm

raymon wrote: »

From the boards.ie poll it looks like FF is on track to win 4 seats in this election ( M Martin , WO Dea , Biffo Jr and maybe one more)

Is this poll believable ?

If not why not ?

I would like to think that FF could be wiped out .... but I think they will probably get a lot more seats - up to 12 if they are lucky

What makes you think anyone votes for real on a boats poll? Sure I picked candidates I wouldn't be cone the election for a wind up.

raymon

Le King wrote: »

Also there is the internet phoenomon going on here whereby a large amount of people wouldn't have the political knowledge or understanding of policies so they would tend to follow the general consensus on the matter, Fine Gael and Labour.

I dont agree at all - I would argue the opposite . I think that people with little political knowledge or understanding of policies would tend to vote for FF or SF " Because they fixed the road " or because their father voted FF or SF.

Le King

raymon wrote: »

I dont agree at all - I would argue the opposite . I think that people with little political knowledge or understanding of policies would tend to vote for FF or SF " Because they fixed the road " or because their father voted FF or SF.

You could say the same about Fine Gael... You're clearly suffering from political bias. I'm guessing you're a Blueshirt with an statement like that.

All of the political parties are useless at the moment. Kenny as Taoiseach? This country will be continue to be a laughing stock as per under Brian Cowen.

leincar

I could quote every post here, but I still don't know how. (Do forgive I'm almost in to my late forties). I'll just try and get a few points across.

First of all I was tending to take the boards vote with a pinch of salt as a younger demograph tend to be left leaning. Then I took another look at the poll and the person who is getting a lot of panning on the likes of boards, politics.ie and the media in general is leading the party which is in the lead in the poll(Fine Gael).

If we are to surmise that older voters go for Fianna fáil and Fine Gael, then you have to ask why Fianna Fáil are not doing better in the boards poll, and can the boards poll transfer to the polling day itself.

I admit as someone who has a healthy dislike for Fianna Fáil I want to see them destroyed. On a previous thread my wish was that the next Fianna Fáil Taoiseach hasn't been born yet. However, knowing the electorate in this country you have to think they will do better.

For me it now gets interesting. Fianna Fáil have automatically given up on government. They are only running 75 candidates in the 43 constituencies. 17 of these candidates are in the 12 constituencies of the Dublin region. Most if not all political observers now recognise that they will struggle to get a single seat in Dublin.

If that is the case we then have 43 candidates seeking election in 31 constituencies. Fianna Fáil will not get 31 seats. If we take a closer look at the constituencies they will not get a seat in the following:

Kerry Nth - West Limerick
Kildare North
Kildare South
Tipp - North
Tipp - South
Wicklow

As to transfers. That will not happen. Fianna Fáil and to a lesser extent the greens(Ryan will not get in in Dublin South) are toxic and will only get a core vote. They are not transfer friendly. In the final shake up for seats I would tend towards the left leaning candidate. Labour(I think they are still left) Sinn Féin/ Ula/Socailist and left leaning independent candidates will transfer madly between each other. Also you will find a level of transfer between Fine Gael and Labour and vice versa. I would include myself in this.

So while the boards/vote may be skewed towards people under 35, but I don't think its so much out of step. The Fine Gael vote is pretty much what other polls are saying. Also, some of my friends who are the same age as myself are on boards, so there are some oldies about.

If I was to predict now I'd say Fianna Fáil on 17% with 25 seats, and thats on a good day.

raymon

Le King wrote: »

You could say the same about Fine Gael... You're clearly suffering from political bias. I'm guessing you're a Blueshirt with an statement like that.

All of the political parties are useless at the moment. Kenny as Taoiseach? This country will be continue to be a laughing stock as per under Brian Cowen.

Civil war politics again ?? Makes me laugh

Disliking FF corruption, forgery , lies , tax evasion, misrepresentation , drunk driving, perjury , economic treason and general incompetence makes me a blueshirt ?? Explain that one to me

Brussels Sprout

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I used to defend Limerick's reputation, but if O'Dea is being voted for, then I'm going to write my city off as a lost cause.......voting for lawbreakers ?

I read that the other day two elderly ladies didn't know who Eamon Gilmore was when he canvassed them on the street in Limerick. Afterwards the journalist asked them who they were going to vote for. They replied that they were going to vote for Willie O' Dea because "He does great things for Limerick"

The next day a guy in Dun Laoghaire said he was going to vote for Mary Hanifan because 'she' had sent his daughter a good luck card on the morning of her Leaving Cert.

K_user

leincar wrote: »

If I was to predict now I'd say Fianna Fáil on 17% with 25 seats, and thats on a good day.

Interestingly had I read your post earlier I would have agreed with you.

Now I'm not so sure.

There were alot of people waiting to give FF a good kicking tonight. But 5 of 6 of the panelists and 49% of the Twitter crowd agreed that MM did a better job.

Thats the media and, by in large, the younger generation on Twitter, who found themselves behind FF. Thats a shocking turn around.

K_user

raymon wrote: »

Civil war politics again ?? Makes me laugh

Don't knock it, it works.

I haven't been to church properly in years, yet I still bless myself if a funeral passes. Whats in your head is hard to shake off.

takun

I thought Michael Martin did better, quite a bit better. I still haven't a notion of voting for him FF though.

Sir Oxman

leincar wrote: »

If I was to predict now I'd say Fianna Fáil on 17% with 25 seats, and thats on a good day.

That is around about my prediction for GE2011.
I think they are in for a huge shock in Dublin.

raymon

K_user wrote: »

the younger generation on Twitter, who found themselves behind FF.

I dont see how this debate (and twitter chat) makes the younger generation suddenly back FF . Michael Martin is a better talker than Gilmore by a narrow margin that is true and was reflected in the chatter

Kristopherus

gambiaman wrote: »

That is around about my prediction for GE2011.
I think they are in for a huge shock in Dublin.

Would agree. They'll be murdered in Dublin.

Sierra Oscar

I would imagine, based on the Sindo's individual constituency polls for example, that FF will probably return 30-35 seats to the Dail.

Dont be too surprised if its 35-40, and FF return more seats than Labour! :eek:

K_user

raymon wrote: »

I dont see how this debate (and twitter chat) makes the younger generation suddenly back FF . Michael Martin is a better talker than Gilmore by a narrow margin that is true and was reflected in the chatter

My point is that the "younger" generation, the generation that are supposedly disenfranchised by the current government and the ones less likely to vote for the party that their parents and grandparents did, listened to MM and didn't call for his head.

Its a small but interesting point.

K_user

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Dont be too surprised if its 35-40, and FF return more seats than Labour! :eek:

I wouldn't be surprised with that result. With FG getting a huge chunk and going into power with Labour.

Le King

raymon wrote: »

Civil war politics again ?? Makes me laugh

Disliking FF corruption, forgery , lies , tax evasion, misrepresentation , drunk driving, perjury , economic treason and general incompetence makes me a blueshirt ?? Explain that one to me

Still works but no.You just come across like that as you clearly lay the dumb vote at the traditional Republican parties.

Are you or are you not a Fine Gael man?

raymon

Le King wrote: »

Still works but no.You just come across like that as you clearly lay the dumb vote at the traditional Republican parties.

Are you or are you not a Fine Gael man?

Not FG - I just think FF sold us down the river.

And you are correct I havent met anyone with an intelligent post pro-FF

Le King

raymon wrote: »

Not FG - I just think FF sold us down the river.

And you are correct I havent met anyone with an intelligent post pro-FF

Yeah they did. But they will still win votes to the tone of 20-25% in the GE.

The only intelligent political voters are those who are neutral before the campaigning begins.

Voting Fine Gael because they are not Fianna Fail is down right stupid.

Unfortunately that's the way politics works. Regardless we will see an inadequate government anyway.

Mike Strutter

I've seen polls were FF are polling 15%.
Who are these people that would vote for FF.
Are they retarded?

nesf

gambiaman wrote: »

That is around about my prediction for GE2011.
I think they are in for a huge shock in Dublin.

It won't be a shock for them. They're in disaster recovery mode at the moment and even in the good times Dublin was never good to them.

steelcityblues

I would say there are only 7 FFers guaranteed re-election, but a lot will depend on a high turnout or not from those in the older age group.

Anything from as low as 20 to as high as 40 is possible for the party right now - hope it will be the former.

As the boards.ie poll has shown, if only under 35's were voting, then they would be looking at single figure seats.

Sir Oxman

nesf wrote: »

It won't be a shock for them. They're in disaster recovery mode at the moment and even in the good times Dublin was never good to them.

I think zero Dublin seats with the defeat of Hanafin, Andrews, Lenihan, Haughey, Curran and Carey in that would be a bit of a shock, nesf.
That's what I believe they are heading for.
And I'm not basing that on the boards poll either.

nesf

gambiaman wrote: »

I think zero Dublin seats with the defeat of Hanafin, Andrews, Lenihan, Haughey, Curran and Carey in that would be a bit of a shock, nesf.
That's what I believe they are heading for.
And I'm not basing that on the boards poll either.

I think 0 seats is a bit optimistic/pessimistic depending on your viewpoint. They should at least net one in Dun Laoighre I think. 0 in Dublin Central is definite I think. They'll lose quite a few seats but all of them is unlikely. Still a strong enough core vote out there in the bigger constituencies to net one. They'll be bleeding votes though alright and a lot of big names will go and some dead wood too hopefully

Sierra Oscar

Mike Strutter wrote: »

I've seen polls were FF are polling 15%.
Who are these people that would vote for FF.
Are they retarded?

You know, there are over 85,000 members of FF (as compared to 12,000 Labour and 25,000 FG iirc) so it does not surprise me that there is a strongish core vote. 85,000 is 4-5% of the electorate!

With a membership of 85,000 a party is not going to just disappear within one election. Old habits die hard and all that!