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Are we ever caught out?

  • 07-02-2011 12:18pm
    #1
    muckish
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 610 ✭✭✭


    Funnily I was thinking of posting this yesterday but didn't get around to it, and then I wake up this morning to 4 inches of unpredicted snow.

    But my question is this: With forecasting accuracy increasing all the time are we ever caught out by unexpected weather? What causes unexpected changes at the eleventh hour?


Comments

  • #2
    riffmongous
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,853 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    A big problem is lack of computing power, there just isn't enough to make perfect forecasts. And when you think about how complicated the atmosphere is, add in the sparsity of observations and I personally find it quite amazing we can make such accurate forecasts as we can.


  • #3
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    To be fair Met Eireann did give a hint about it last night, Gerry Murphy said there could be a possibility of some sleet on hills in the north west, anyone familiar with Gerry Murphy knows that sleet on hills can easily mean significant snow at lower levels


  • #4
    compsys
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,130 ✭✭✭compsys


    Harps wrote: »
    To be fair Met Eireann did give a hint about it last night, Gerry Murphy said there could be a possibility of some sleet on hills in the north west, anyone familiar with Gerry Murphy knows that sleet on hills can easily mean significant snow at lower levels

    In fairness, the vast majority of normal everyday people who would watch the weather on TV aren't necessarily weather enthusiasts or avid boards.ie weather fans and wouldn't be familiar with Gerry's 'coded' forecasting. If it's gonna snow then just say it! What you've said isn't a valid excuse for the inaccurate forecast.

    Most people who watched that forecast and heard Gerry say sleet on hills would not, and should NOT, have known that it translated to snow on low ground.


  • #5
    martic
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 515 ✭✭✭martic


    compsys wrote: »
    If it's gonna snow then just say it!

    I think this might have a bearing on why Met Eireann do not commit themselves to saying things straight out anymore.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054856271
    An article on it
    http://www.friendsoftheirishenvironment.net/paperstoday/index.php?action=view&id=8309


  • #6
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    If one were to Google the main character in the piece linked above one will be see a number of litigation attempts against other bodies.


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