The different economic plans

ISAW

I am still not clear what the current opposition will do when in government ( especially Labour and the United Left)

Please feel free to correct my rough figures ( if i don't do so myself)
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/reports/2010/bes2010.pdf
Ireland

GDP about 140 billion
Government tax take annually - about 45 billion

Table 2 about 55 spent in Finance Act
to run the country 10 spent on capital e.g. roads
and 5 on national debt


In 2011 we expect to get 35 billion in taxes
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2011/profiletax.pdf

In 2011 we will spend 55 on current and 6 on capital
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/public%20expenditure/2010/REV2010.pdf

In rough figures ( you can see the GDP% ratio on page six of this: )
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/public%20expenditure/2010/REV2010.pdf

Where our growth is zero out tax take is at 35 and spending at 45 = minus 15 to minus 30
In particular look at the red and yellow deficit
The yellow one is including borrowing to pay the bailout
But the RED ONE shows that even without the bailout we still have to get the 15 back!

Now the position seems to be as follows
FF: Borrow 85 billion ( or at lkeast put it in a fund wher we can borrow it if we need it) add the repayments as we draw down to national debt
the Greens agree with this but would like to look for lower interest payments
Pay off the 31 billion in 10 to 15 years.

As for the other 15 billion we will cut spending and increase taxes to get the balance down to less than 1 per cent of GDP by 2015

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10366.pdf page 38

we will be 8,000 a head worse off per annum in 2015 compared to 2007 ...page 34

FG
.. Same plan as FF but with more cuts and less taxes
. FF plan is to reduce to below 3% by 2014

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/other/2011/natrecplanlatest.pdf
page 14 ( based on above 2 per cent growth) and 27

had increased to 46.4% of GDP. As a result, the underlying General Government Deficit increased to 11.9%
of GDP.
By 2014, revenues will have increased to 36.8% of GDP and expenditure will have fallen to 39.7% of GDP,
resulting in a General Government Deficit of 2.8% of GDP.

Labour
same as FF and FG but

Say they will try to get a lower interest rate . This may save our repayments but will do nothing about the overrun year on year of spending over tax.

Page 10 of http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/laboursplanforstabilityandgrowth.pdf

a net fiscal adjustment in 2012-2014 of €7 billion,

Given the just passed FF/GP Finance Act the current government plan loads in the first 6 of 15 billion of cuts
Labour's plan is as follows:( policy just launched today) -EDIT the smiley sholud read ": (" so it is there in error
from 2112-2014
page 9:

They will keep 3.6 billion of the FF cuts of @ 1.2 billion a year 2012-2014
They will have 1.4 billion additional cuts in 2012, 2.7 in 2013 and 4 billion in 2014
They will introduce extra taxes to the value of 900 million in 2012, 2 billion in 2013 3 billion in 2014


They will hope for growth ( currently at a quarter of a per cent) to average 2.2 percent for the next three years.
Debt as percent of GDP should reach 105 % (the IMF predictions in the FF deal figure it at 115 per cent plus)

Even with these cuts and taxes and bigger healthy growing economy the deficit will be at 4.8 % of GDP, not zero. Not less than 3 %

In 2014 Labour will still be spending 9 billion more than they are taking in whereas FF FG and right wing independents would have this at zero.


They then hope to reduce this Spending as percent of GDP to below 3 percent in a year???

I wont go to much into nitty gritty but FG and Lab differ from FF in what they tax and cut e.g.

They will bring in a wealth tax on people over 100,000 and use the money to reduce USC charges for the poorest 10 per cent. WE have no idea how much money this will raise or how much people will get extra on welfare because of it.

All the other nitty gritty stuff is about taxing or cutting more or less and I haven't read it all yet.


The United left ( and SF) seems to be:

Hand NAMA properties back to the banks and tell them to sort out their own debt problems.

This gets rid of the need to borrow 85 billion
But now you have no banks in the country - okay so good riddance to them.
then you have to tackle the red bar in the above graph. wher are you going to get 10 billion for this year to pay for the Army Gardai nurses teachers etc.?
Also given you just defaulted on debt international companies by their own rules ( a shure they are capitalists hated by the left anyway) have to move their money or pull out of Ireland.

Housing prices fall more and unemployment rises as we get more defaulters on mortages.

Anyway anyone care to correct me?

RichardAnd

Your summary of SF and the left wing quacks seems spot on. Hand NAMA back to "the bankers" and "the developers" and let them sort out their own mess. Lord, if only things were as simple as in the minds of a socialist