RedC Poll Results (Paddy Power: 2/1/11)

Sierra Oscar

The RedC poll results for PaddyPower are in and are as follows:

FG 37 (+4)
Lab 19 (-2%)
FF 18 (+2%)
SF 12 (-1%)
Grn 3
Ind 11 (-4%)

Again, bad news for Labour in this poll as their vote seems to be continually shrinking at this stage. FF are on course to surpass them in the coming days as its election machine gets into full swing.

ednwireland

interesting compared to the independant poll

FG 30%
Labour 24%
FF 11%
SF 16%
ind 15%
GP 1%

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/elections/fg-poll-blow-but-kenny-on-course-for-taoiseach-2520947.html

looks like it will take a few polls to settle down

cancercowboy

Clear Mandate for Fine Gael majority government, may only need a just a few independents to form majority government.

Labour losing ground to Fianna Fáil... Gilmore's rhetoric against Fine Gael not impressing the public. Negative comments are losing, positive comments winning out. No doubt Joan Burton is partially to blame as well.

The message here is: run a positive campaign. We've all had enough of negativity.

johngalway

I'm a little confused at Gilmores repeated swallowing of FF's spin that they'd support FG. He'd do better if he ignored it, IMO. You think he'd give the public some credit, we know FF is lying when their lips move.

Liam Byrne

johngalway wrote: »

we know FF is lying when their lips move.

We do, but there's still a percentage that don't seem to.

NSNO

Labour are showing real naivety in their media appearances recently. It's been all bluster, negativity and buzzwords. Joan Burton is an absolute liability to the party. Labour also too dependent on performances from Burton, Quinn and Gilmore?


Fine Gael have obviously gotten some serious help from somewhere as this is usually their downfall. They seem to have a much wider base of media-savvy talent in their front ranks with Noonan, Varadkar, Coveney, Reilly and Bruton. Even Enda has been performing well, and his meeting with Barroso did well to highlight Fine Gael's membership of the European People's Party and the connections that that brings.


I wouldn't read too much into FF's ratings as a possible trend, they're definitely bouncing along the bottom. I'd say they will get between 15% and 18% of the vote come election day. Their problem will be the same problem Sinn Féin has had for years - transfers. Fianna Fáil will surprise us all at first count, but will struggle heavily after that. Micheal Martin is a strong media performer and PR-wise they're playing an absolute blinder. Trying to tar your opponents by saying you'll support them? Utter genius. Fortunately for FF, Labour is most definitely biting at the bait. Labour quickly needs to learn to ignore FF and concentrate on getting their ideas out to the public.

Sierra Oscar

ednwireland wrote: »

interesting compared to the independant poll

FG 30%
Labour 24%
FF 11%
SF 16%
ind 15%
GP 1%

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/elections/fg-poll-blow-but-kenny-on-course-for-taoiseach-2520947.html

looks like it will take a few polls to settle down

Its even more interesting when you compare the RedC poll to their last one they did for PaddyPower.

This is what you get . . .

FG 37 (NC)
Lab 19 (-2%)
FF 18 (+4%)
SF 12 (-2%)
Grn 3 (NC)
Ind 11 (NC)

johngalway

NSNO wrote: »

bouncing along the bottom

Ah, pity you hadn't said that sooner. I'd have suggested that to them as an election slogan with Martins smiley face

GSF

Is there any analysis on which polling company was most accurate in predicting the last general election result?

mrrepublic

Sin Fein do not have the candidate base to take advantage to their high position in the polls, this will result in the vast majority of last seats been filled by FF. Sin Fein voters will only transfer to FF as they are the Republican party and considered closer to Sin Fein than any of the others.

Anonymous1987

Here are the results with a more detailed breakdown. Interesting that Kenny now competes with Gilmore with 23% and 24% respectively. Honestly, I am at a loss to explain this. Interesting also in the last slide, there is a slight fall off in support of the traditional FG/Labour collation by 2% to 45% in favour of alternative coalitions.

imme

I think there are far too many polls, and the weight attached to their findings is excessive. Today we've had too polls released.

I don't think we need as many polls. Of course they're coming from different sources for different reasons. The Indo for headlines and exposure. Paddy Power for 'god knows what':pac:.

LordSutch

mrrepublic wrote: »

Sin Fein do not have the candidate base to take advantage to their high position in the polls, this will result in the vast majority of last seats been filled by FF. Sin Fein voters will only transfer to FF as they are the Republican party and considered closer to Sin Fein than any of the others.

Valid point (thankfully.

cancercowboy

GSF wrote: »

Is there any analysis on which polling company was most accurate in predicting the last general election result?

Historically, Red C have predicted the outcome accurately including the last general election in 2007.

mrrepublic

cancercowboy wrote: »

Historically, Red C have predicted the outcome accurately including the last general election in 2007.

Red C - definatly most reliable poll and now we are begining to see the same poll trends as we did pre last election and it was only in the last few days that FF got the lead in the polls and carried this forward to election day, I think we will see the same trends this time.