Galway East Election Thread

cazzak79

im voting for ciaran cannon (fg)
so who gets your vote:)

Badabing

Hard one to call with all the retirements, usually 2FF 2FG over the years depending on who 2nd FF candidtate is i'd say same as you were. Labour will be there or thereabouts for 4th seat tho.

dicknorris

Would not be suprised if declan ganley ran as an independant

ei.sdraob

Is there a final list of all candidates running?

InchicoreDude

Is there a final list of all candidates running?

No, As FF havent announced their candidates yet - Noel Treacy only just announced he wouldnt be standing.

This constituency will be one of the more interesting ones in this election because it has been so conservative in the past (It has always elected 2 FF & 2 FG except on 1 occassion when an idependent got in ahead of FG - even then he was seen as a FF independent as FF failed to put him on the ticket and he ran as independent).

So lets assume FG will get at least 2 seats; I would expect Paul Connaughton Jr to top the poll. I know people on boards are very against dynasties (And rightfully so). But that Connaughton name will get him a lot of votes. The 2nd FG seat will be for grabs big time - Tom McHugh will get a lot of votes around the Tuam area but there will be negativity around his businesses being in trouble which cost him. Cannon has a reletively high profile and is based in south Galway. That will work in his favour - I can see him getting FG seat no. 2. Colm Keaveney has been knocking around for a long time and I reckon he will be the first labour candidate ever elected in Galway East (Although Labours decision to run a 2nd candidate in Galway East is strange). and finally, I cannot see FF getting wiped out in Galway East - there are too many people entriched in FF that would allow this to happen (Particularly if they decide to go with just 1 candidate). If Kitt goes for election, he could be 4th. The greens will get nowhere in Galway East if they decide to run somebody, SF candidates tend to be no hopers in Galway East but always seem to fare better than expected but cant see any SF candidate being elected. So my prediction:

1. Paul Connaughton Jr. (FG)
2. Ciaran Cannon (FG)
3. Colm Keaveney (Lab)
4. Micheal Kitt (FF)

If this is what happens, then it will be seen as a failure for FG as they will have failed to increase their number of seats. FF will be happy to hold onto 1 seat. Labour will be delighted as they will be entering new territory.

OnAndUp

Will Galway East finally do something Interesting?

As Vincent Browne would say this is 'Huge' ly interesting as we have a range of candidates not seen before and we have major geographical dimension.

FG did well last time but actually could have got 3 from 4 if they had managed their vote better. This time they could have messed up badly as there is major disaffection in Ballinasloe area that former PD leader Cannon has got the nod ahead of M Mullins who got great backing in convention. To compound matters, Cannon will now be drawing from same base as McClearn (FG). Some very interesting Independent runners this time, with front runners Canney (Ind) in Tuam area, Broderick (Ind) McHugh in Tuam and possibly Fahy and Ganley, add in Labour entries of Keaveney (north) and Higgins (south) and Kitt (FF) who will lead (FF) field and Connaughton (FG) who must be backed on basis of fathers vote and a few lesser know FF'ers who will pull some votes in local areas, all that remains then is to include Connolly (SF) who will perform strongly especially in B'sloe a few other independents and we are left with the most fascinating squabble for transfers ever seen -in these parts at least. Then it may all boil down to following, Kitt (FF) on basis of leading diminished party vote, Connaughton (FG) Canney (Ind) unless Keaveney (Lab) squeezes ahead- Tuam vote will stay in Tuam so either or. We are then left with one more vacancy which will be filled by East/South vote. On the basis that FG vote is split badly and on basis that Higgins (Lab), Connolly (SF) and others votes will transfer to Broderick we will be left with 2 Ind 1 FF and 1 FG

PomBear

Very impressed with Dermot Connolly, would give him my vote if I wasn't out Whest, I know quite a few who will vote for him though!

Spanish J

PomBear wrote: »

Very impressed with Dermot Connolly, would give him my vote if I wasn't out Whest, I know quite a few who will vote for him though!

An impressive candidate to be sure. Unfortunately outside Ballinasloe he wont pick up much. Another impressive candidate in the Ballinasloe is Tim Broderick, good machine and considered progressive rather than your run of the mill independent. Tuam - An absolute minefield!!

Very difficult to call, I think how Labour perform nationally will have the major say on Keaveny's prospects. Il put my neck on the block, still no Labour seat in East Galway!

As for Cannon, I dont see the fuss, maybe its just me but find him uninspiring, I cant put my finger on it. I think McHugh will surprise many and poll well.

Sergeant

InchicoreDude wrote: »

N

1. Paul Connaughton Jr. (FG)
2. Ciaran Cannon (FG)
3. Colm Keaveney (Lab)
4. Micheal Kitt (FF)

I think these will be the candidates elected, and probably in that order as well.

InchicoreDude

Some very interesting Independent runners this time, with front runners Canney (Ind) in Tuam area, Broderick (Ind) McHugh in Tuam

Isnt McHugh Fine Gael?

we will be left with 2 Ind 1 FF and 1 FG

Hmm, this is a very brave prediction - that FG will only get 1 seat when there is a real possibility they will get 3...

Very difficult to call, I think how Labour perform nationally will have the major say on Keaveny's prospects. Il put my neck on the block, still no Labour seat in East Galway!

I would say it is Keaveneys last chance to win a seat - if he doesnt do it this time, Labour will look elsewhere next time around.


The thing about Cannon is that he has a fairly large profile due to his involvement at the end of PD's and joining FG. So this will be in his favour. I have never even heard of Dermot Connolly from Sinn Fein!

OnAndUp

InchicoreDude wrote: »

Isnt McHugh Fine Gael?



Hmm, this is a very brave prediction - that FG will only get 1 seat when there is a real possibility they will get 3...


I would say it is Keaveneys last chance to win a seat - if he doesnt do it this time, Labour will look elsewhere next time around.
The thing about Cannon is that he has a fairly large profile due to his involvement at the end of PD's and joining FG. So this will be in his favour. I have never even heard of Dermot Connolly from Sinn Fein!

There is Tom McHugh (FG) who could did very well in 07 , then there is Paddy (IND) who was a TD from 2002 to 07, and will pick up votes from disaffected FF people.

Yes 3 for FG could happen- but would need spectacular vote mgt and that was ok when there were just two viable candidates- now there are 4 and geography suggests transfers could be tricky.

It does seem Canney is going to win and unlikely that Tuam will have 2 TD's so Keaveney less likely.


Cannon got an impressive 3500 in 2007 as PD, it transferred 30% to Treacy and then all over. In many respects he is starting at scratch as the PD/senator association has + and - but he will now draw in some of Treacy vote and some FG vote, much will depend on how McClearn vote will transfer.
Connolly did well in B'Sloe local and is going to do much better in GE as he is only Ballinasloe man in race and he commands respect across party lines.

InchicoreDude

There is Tom McHugh (FG) who could did very well in 07 , then there is Paddy (IND) who was a TD from 2002 to 07, and will pick up votes from disaffected FF people.

Is Paddy McHugh running this time around? I havent heard that anywhere...

mink_man

Tom McHugh will poll well, has alot of support round tuam and the surrounding areas.

Dr. Strangelove

Interesting stuff, my first time on boards.ie - i've always read through points them but never contributed - just registered s few minutes ago.

After reading Fintan O'Tooles piece in the Irish Times today (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0129/1224288524065.html) I am following the independents throughout the country with great interest, but particularly in Galway East.

GE will be fascinating insight into traditional voting patterns of rural Ireland and the potential of this crisis to change these patterns. And a packed field of candidates to boot! Unfortunately I'm not particularly confident that Keavney will pick up a seat for Labour. I'm not a Labour supporter but I would like to see the traditional trend bucked a bit more than just an extra seat for FG. Of all the indepedents running I do like the look of Tim Broderick - as mentioned above he does appear to be quite progressive in his views and the kind of candidate O'Toole would be referring to. Looking forward to see what he has to say for himself. Great month ahead!

seanin4711

cazzak79 wrote: »

im voting for ciaran cannon (fg)
so who gets your vote:)

why?
it seems all the senators are only running as the will be out of a job when the next government delivers on their plans to get rid of the Seanad.
I suppose thats motivation for you.

I think Iwill give Jimmy McClearn the vote as i was chatting to him friday eve on my doorstep and he seems a genuine man with ambitions to try and get our country back on track.

I hope that the new government looks at the bigger picture instead of the localised politics that got us into this mess in the first place!

seanin4711

Sergeant wrote: »

I think these will be the candidates elected, and probably in that order as well.

Why does paul connachton jr have a given right to be elected?
Is he his father,no i think not!
I voted for his father last time round so why should i automatically give the son the nod?
Its like the heir apparent in Ireland seriously!
Jackie healy rae and his son its ridiculous,mind you not as bad but you get my drift!
Each person on their own merits!
PLease vote on the policies and not just cos he/she is someones son or daughter!
j

shanekoaks

Hi everyone,

A friend of mine is doing a poll/survey involving Galway East.

It'd be great if you could help out!

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/ZN8N7M3

WAKE UP!

Im From Tuam.Let me start by saying i am not affiliated with any Party/ or candidate.I have not decided who or what i will vote for yet, and im finding it quite hard . As Richard Pryor would say in his movie Brewsters Millions "None of The Above" !! I only want whats best for our town and its people. We NEED a local T.D , for what its worth.
*Edited*
Thanks for taking the time to read this , and good luck with you choice!

ArmaniJeanss

WAKE UP! wrote: »

We NEED a local T.D , for what its worth.

Why do you need a local T.D?

ei.sdraob

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Why do you need a local T.D?

Why to fix all those potholes we have in Galway East of course :P

galway2007

one thig for sure cannon is not wanted in the craughwell area due to decisions he made when he was on Galway County Council

Lockstep

WAKE UP! wrote: »

Im From Tuam.Let me start by saying i am not affiliated with any Party/ or candidate.I have not decided who or what i will vote for yet, and im finding it quite hard . As Richard Pryor would say in his movie Brewsters Millions "None of The Above" !! I only want whats best for our town and its people. We NEED a local T.D , for what its worth.
*Edited*
Thanks for taking the time to read this , and good luck with you choice!

WAKE UP! I had to edit your post. You were making some fairly dodgy assertions about various candidates without going into specifics and refusing to expand except promising that they were bad people.

This really isn't on. For you to register and use your first post to bash candidates in such an egregious way isn't something we encourage.

By all means, get involved in the debate but if you're going to bash candidates, you'll need to substantiate your points.

OnAndUp

seanin4711 wrote: »

Why does paul connachton jr have a given right to be elected?
Is he his father,no i think not!
I voted for his father last time round so why should i automatically give the son the nod?
Its like the heir apparent in Ireland seriously!
Jackie healy rae and his son its ridiculous,mind you not as bad but you get my drift!
Each person on their own merits!
PLease vote on the policies and not just cos he/she is someones son or daughter!
j

Much resentment about this family thing, and the expectation that if Junior is elected another family member could be co-opted to council. Contrary to an earlier post, I now believe that FG people are rowing in behind McCleran and on this basis, his odds are very good value and he may be good value to top the poll.

brendankelly

A week sure is a long time in politics in East Galway. The polls are changing by the day.

http://fisnua.com

meriwether

seanin4711 wrote: »

Why does paul connachton jr have a given right to be elected?
j

No one. Who said he did? Did he say it himself?

Is he his father,no i think not!

No, he is not.

I voted for his father last time round so why should i automatically give the son the nod?

You shouldn't. Who said you should?

Its like the heir apparent in Ireland seriously!

Indeed.

Jackie healy rae and his son its ridiculous,mind you not as bad but you get my drift!

If JHR's son is elected, that is because the people voted for him.

Each person on their own merits!

Indeed, and who is saying the contrary?

PLease vote on the policies and not just cos he/she is someones son or daughter!

The flip side of this is surely you shouldn't refuse to vote for someone based purely on who their family is?

Lapin

Fair response there Meriwether ^^^^^

But the fact remains that there is a sizable portion of the electorate that will vote for Paul Connaghton jnr, simply because of who his father is.

And as much as PC jnr tries to highlight his own merits, the reality is, he has the advantage of this lazy sheeplike trend to vote for the Connaghton seat regardless of which his family members arsé is warming it.

I have nothing against the man and I wish him the best of luck.

But I challenge anyone voting for him to tell me what he has to offer in relation to the other candidates. And do so without referring to PC snr.

alitoast

Tim Broderick for me. Who said nepotism is dead, havent heard anything positive about Paul Junior, shoo-in in the betting though.....is this the feeling around the constituency?

The Bookie

The only thing that is guaranteed in east Galway is that we are getting a minimum of 3 new T.D’s possibly 4 and unfortunately for the people of East Galway in my opinion there is not one out standing candidate in the frame and I've looked at each of them individually… their either inexperienced, party hoppers or simply flawed in some way or their what I call career politicians… someone that would turn up for the opening of a pack of crisps simply because they knew a camera was present… now saying that I did vote myself and my vote preference was simple and not party motivated in any way… I simply voted for the 3 candidates closest to where I live not because I think their the best option… but I’d sooner the devil I know rather then the one I don’t representing me in the Dail… Tomorrow will answer all !!! :rolleyes: