Cork North West

Teddy455

i was wondering what will be the outcome in this constituency.Batt O Keefe will not be running again.

My prediction is FG2, FF1

Or maybe fine gael could take all 3 seats.

Candidates:

Fianna Fail:
Michael Moynihan.

Fine Gael:
Áine Collins
Derry Canty
Michael Creed

Labour Party:
Martin Coughlan

Green Party:
Mark Collins

Sinn Fein:
Des O Grady

United Left Alliance:
Anne Foley

barnicles

Michael Creed will probably top the poll again, Micheal Moynihan will probably get elected too. The third one will probably be FG.

Eliot Rosewater

FG running 3 candidates - could be risky!

Apparently Derry Canty was a member of FF, then the PDs, then an independent, and finally a FG member.

My girlfriend made a good pun: Derry Canty: what party Canty join?

barbarians

Des O'Grady for Sinn Fein teaches in my school and I think I'm safe in saying he will not be elected. Creed and Moynihan should retain their seats with Collins for Fine Gael taking the other. Unless there is a serious backlash against Moynihan, which could happen due to his anonymous profile as a TD,
but FF should take 1 seat. O'Grady is unlikely to get a seat especially this being a 3 seater constituency.

Eliot Rosewater

Des O'Grady didn't poll particularly well in the 2009 locals. I'd be very surprised if he came close.

Do people know if the list in the OP and on Elections Ireland is the exhaustive list? Will FF definitely be running only one? And no independents?

Zonda999

I expect FG to get 2 and FF to get 1 also, theres simply too much FF "lifers" around here for them not to get 1 seat.

I predict, in this order;

1. Creed
2. Moynihan
3. Collins

dartbhoy

Probably 1 of the most boring and predictable constituencies in the whole country! Again expect to see FF and FG to dominate this constituency but FG to win 2 seats this time and Michael Moynihan to hold his seat for FF but personally after almost 14 years as a TD in the area he's done absoloutley nothing for Cork North West IMO.

Eliot Rosewater

Fianna Fail are now running two candidates - Micheal Moynihan and Daithi O Donnabhoin. I can't see them winning two seats at all. So why did they do this? A sense of pride and a reluctance to admit they're on the down? Giving some reward to Daithi for work done?

imme

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Fianna Fail are now running two candidates - Micheal Moynihan and Daithi O Donnabhoin. I can't see them winning two seats at all. So why did they do this? A sense of pride and a reluctance to admit they're on the down? Giving some reward to Daithi for work done?

A judgement call.
Maybe a bit of pride as well, don't want to be seen to be reduced to one candidate and handing 2 seats to FG, (most likely outcome). Moynihan is the stronger of the FF candidates so he'll get the majority of the votes going to FF, O'Donnabhoin doesn't stand anything like a chance.

denmar

Creed and Moynihan will def take seats but the third will be hard to call as the remaining candidates are all "unknowns" really. Don't see anything inspiring in any of them.

Teddy455

With 2 FF candidates now there could be a split vote with FG winning all 3 seats or labour geting in.

-Corkie-

I see Collins is not doing great on the poll here. I am shocked to see SF ahead of FG.

denmar

Well Collins is not a high profile candidate - can't understand atall why they chose her. I feel they had an opportunity to pull two seats easily, that is if they chose their candidate wisely, but I guess time will tell !!

dartbhoy

By all accounts Derry Canty is a very popular FG canidate in the Ballincollig area and the party faithful up there expect him to win a seat along with Creed. Des O'Grady I reckon will get a good vote for SF in the constituency but won't win a seat in a very conservative constituency where voters in the area seem to forget there's more political parties other than FG and FF!

-Corkie-

denmar wrote: »

Well Collins is not a high profile candidate - can't understand atall why they chose her. I feel they had an opportunity to pull two seats easily, that is if they chose their candidate wisely, but I guess time will tell !!

I agree with you. I was stumped TBH. She has a hairdressers in Kerry now after giving up the accountancy business. Best of luck to them all!!!. As you say time will tell!!

Teddy455

-Corkie- wrote: »

I see Collins is not doing great on the poll here. I am shocked to see SF ahead of FG.

I think someone might of made 20 profiles or a lot of SFers voted because in the space of a few hours Des O'Grady went from 4 votes to 20+ in the poll.

-Corkie-

Teddy455 wrote: »

I think someone might of made 20 profiles or a lot of SFers voted because in the space of a few hours Des O'Grady went from 4 votes to 20+ in the poll.

I see that Teddy! wont be much good on polling day though..:P

daviddob

dartbhoy wrote: »

voters in the area seem to forget there's more political parties other than FG and FF!

not a good enough reason to vote SF

daviddob

i think Creed and Canty will be the 2 FG seats. Collins not really too well known and Canty should take a lot of Batt's votes. However Creed seems to be doing a lot of canvassing in Ballincollig, which is bad news for Canty! Moynihan to retain his seat.

county man

Michael Creed and Michael Moynihan both look to be safe but no one is mentioning Martin Coughlan for Labour.
The party is doing well in the national polls and with FG running 3 candidates their vote could well be split and Coughlan could be in with a chance of the 3rd seat.

dartbhoy

daviddob wrote: »

not a good enough reason to vote SF

What got it into your head that I was pushing for people to support SF?

Eliot Rosewater

I passed one of those flashing motorway road-works signs today that read "Vote no. 1 Daithi Ó DONNABHÁIN<flash>No to paid parking in Ballincollig".

New generation; same old polish for the parish pump.

mossie

county man wrote: »

Michael Creed and Michael Moynihan both look to be safe but no one is mentioning Martin Coughlan for Labour.
The party is doing well in the national polls and with FG running 3 candidates their vote could well be split and Coughlan could be in with a chance of the 3rd seat.

Coughlan would need a huge surge from the last election when he only got 4.9% of the vote and he would probably need 4 times that to be elected and need both FG and FF to be down. Don't think Moynihan is as safe as people think but this is a very conservative constituency, just look at referendum results over the years. Think probably 2 FG and 1 FF

cathaloc

-Corkie- wrote: »

I agree with you. I was stumped TBH. She has a hairdressers in Kerry now after giving up the accountancy business. Best of luck to them all!!!. As you say time will tell!!

She also runs a business consultancy which gives advice to SMEs. I think the hairdressers may have gone bust, but not sure about that.

Best of luck to her and (almost) all the candidates.

Hunter21

Very hardcore constituency, can see Moynihan getting back in as there are lots of Fianna Fail hearts still around.
Also bear in mind there are strong Sinn Fein communities in Cork North West.

As said before I could see 2 FG and one FF

mossie

Hunter21 wrote: »

Very hardcore constituency, can see Moynihan getting back in as there are lots of Fianna Fail hearts still around.
Also bear in mind there are strong Sinn Fein communities in Cork North West.

As said before I could see 2 FG and one FF

There are strong Republican communities rather than strong Sinn Fein ones. These could go to Sinn Fein or stay Fiann Fail. In the local elections of 2009 Sinn Fein got 5.2% of the vote in the Kanturk and Macroom areas which would be the bulk of Cork NW and would have to treble that to have a chance of a seat. Even allowing for Fianna Fails collapse they should hold a seat and if not most likely to go to Labour (13.5% in the locals). Still think FG 2 FF 1 most likely result.

dartbhoy

mossie wrote: »

There are strong Republican communities rather than strong Sinn Fein ones. These could go to Sinn Fein or stay Fiann Fail. In the local elections of 2009 Sinn Fein got 5.2% of the vote in the Kanturk and Macroom areas which would be the bulk of Cork NW and would have to treble that to have a chance of a seat. Even allowing for Fianna Fails collapse they should hold a seat and if not most likely to go to Labour (13.5% in the locals). Still think FG 2 FF 1 most likely result.

Kiskeam village is a perfect example of a republican village but not a Sinn Fein supporting one. Michael Moynihan hails from there and is guaranteed almost 100% number 1's even though a lot of the locals have strong views on the 6 counties and republican matters in general but vote FF all the time.

teekayd25

Anyone see the special Cork North West election feature on the local "LTV" last night? All candidates were allowed to film a 10-minute video putting forward their electoral case. :cool:

I live in CSW myself so all the candidates were new to me, but the ones who impressed were probably Creed (FG), Collins (GP), Coughlan (Lab) and Foley (PBP).

Canty and Collins for FG waffled / went round in circles for about 10 minutes, with Canty being the worse offender. Moynihan for FF was completely forgettable, while his running mate O'Donnabhain sat with a gigantic Micheal Martin poster hanging above his shoulder.

The scarier thing was, in the poster, Martin was wearing a black suit, white shirt and a red tie with white dots . . . and this is exactly what O'Donnabhain was wearing too :eek::D

The Sinn Fein candidate put a lot of effort into his video, taking the time to soundtrack it with some diddly-eye music and incorporate some footage from towns around the constituency.

In terms of the people in the mix for the last couple of seats (Creed would seem to be safe) Martin Coughlan of Labour came across as being quite a sincere fellow; Labour had high hopes for a seat here in CSW but as the campaign has worn on this has started to appear less likely. I think Coughlan might now be a slightly better bet if there is to be a non-FG/FF seat within either of the two constituencies.

county man

teekayd25 wrote: »

Anyone see the special Cork North West election feature on the local "LTV" last night? All candidates were allowed to film a 10-minute video putting forward their electoral case. :cool:

I live in CSW myself so all the candidates were new to me, but the ones who impressed were probably Creed (FG), Collins (GP), Coughlan (Lab) and Foley (PBP).

Canty and Collins for FG waffled / went round in circles for about 10 minutes, with Canty being the worse offender. Moynihan for FF was completely forgettable, while his running mate O'Donnabhain sat with a gigantic Micheal Martin poster hanging above his shoulder.

The scarier thing was, in the poster, Martin was wearing a black suit, white shirt and a red tie with white dots . . . and this is exactly what O'Donnabhain was wearing too :eek::D

The Sinn Fein candidate put a lot of effort into his video, taking the time to soundtrack it with some diddly-eye music and incorporate some footage from towns around the constituency.

In terms of the people in the mix for the last couple of seats (Creed would seem to be safe) Martin Coughlan of Labour came across as being quite a sincere fellow; Labour had high hopes for a seat here in CSW but as the campaign has worn on this has started to appear less likely. I think Coughlan might now be a slightly better bet if there is to be a non-FG/FF seat within either of the two constituencies.

A few weeks ago I thought that Coughlan was in with a chance of a seat but judging by the opinion polls it now looks like 2 FG (Creed and Canty) and 1 FF(Moynihan).

-Corkie-

I seen the candidates on LTV last night aswell. I am almost ashamed to say I do not know who to vote for..:o I hate Enda Kenny, Gerry Adams has not got a clue and I know Labour will do nothing for the self employed and do not mention the Greens...:mad::mad:

mossie

Just looking at the boards.ie poll vs the tallies for CNW.

1. Fine Gael boards -39.4% Tally 49%
2. Labour boards - 21.9% Tally 14%
3. Sinn Féin boards - 14.7% Tally 07%
4. Fianna Fáil boards - 13.3% Tally 25%
5. PbP boards - 07.5% Tally 03%
6. Green Party boards - 3.2% Tally 01%


So essentially the boards figures are completely unrelated to real world figures, certainly for CNW and skewed towards parties of the left. Interesting to see how they stack up nationally.

-Corkie-

Thats true. It will be close imo between Canty and Collins..

Eliot Rosewater

As regards the Boards.ie poll, it's worth noting that about a week after it was released there was a concerted attempt at vote rigging for one of the candidates. Though some, if not all, of the initial rigging was dealt with, I started taking it with a fist of salt after that.

-Corkie-

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

As regards the Boards.ie poll, it's worth noting that about a week after it was released there was a concerted attempt at vote rigging for one of the candidates. Thought some, if not all, of the initial rigging was dealt with, I started taking it with a fist of salt after that.

Fairplay and well spotted..:)

dartbhoy

While the result of 2 FG and 1 FF was no surprise it was a surprise Aine Collins getting in before Canty who was widely tipped to win a seat here. Martin Coughlan and Labour will be happy with their performance and they gave it a good battle for the last seat.

Des O'Grady and Sinn Fein will be happy with their performance too after gaining 7.4% of the vote almost 3500 votes in Sinn Fein's first general election in the constituency since the 1920's.