Cavan/Monaghan

Magi11

Has anyone got any predictions for this constituency?
I would have thought 2FF, 2FG and 1SF. But was told by people more knowledgeable than me who reckon it will be 1FF, 2FG and 2SF. With good vote management O'Caolain could drag in a second Shinner.
Is this possible/likely?

Retail Hell

Wouldn't be surprised given the level of hatred for the government, FF may not even get 1 seat 2SF & 2 FG could be possible

misslily

Retail Hell wrote: »

Wouldn't be surprised given the level of hatred for the government, FF may not even get 1 seat 2SF & 2 FG could be possible

Hmm I'm going to call it 1FF, 2FG, 1LB, 1SF

Liam Hogan running for Labour seems like a good guy, it'll be interesting to see if as a rural border constituency, we will vote for this labour candidate. If not it will be Sinn Fein's up and coming Catherine Reilly who might take it.

Pete_Cavan

Im sure Smith will keep his seat, a lot of schools built and being built plus we are getting more investment in roads this year than most other parts of the country.

misslily

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Im sure Smith will keep his seat, a lot of schools built and being built plus we are getting more investment in roads this year than most other parts of the country.

Well Smith himself is confident he will keep his seat. He is quoted in this weeks Anglo Celt saying "we can go to any door with our record of achievement" !!!!

Magi11

That fact that Sean Conlan FG has been selected to run will probably be the end of Margaret Conlan's tenure. Sean will pull almost all of the Ballybay vote and Margaret will need most of them. The transfers from Brendan Smith are as likely to stay in Cavan as they are to transfer to his FF companion in Monaghan.

henryporter

FG were unlucky enough in 2007 not to get a second seat in the constituency - presumably the dynamics of returning a Ceann Comhairle came in to play then; not so this time around thankfully.

Other than that it's an extremely conservative constituency (from the point of view of no radical thinkers as opposed to a mishmash of left and right wing 'socialist' hillbillies) so it doesn't really matter who gets elected

gav86

Is it just a Cavan/Monaghan thing or does it happen in other constituencies were people only vote within there own county??

I would say O Caolain, Smith, Humphries are safe. Will be a scrap then between Reilly, the 2 Conlons and O Reilly. Interesting to see how Mc Guirk fairs..

thebandit1

I'd imagine it will be:

Ó'Caoláín SF
Smith FF
O'Reilly FG
Humphries FG
Conlan FG

If Conlan FG gets the 4th seat ahead of Humphries, then she could lose out altogether, as she wont pick up mant transfers. This could mean that Margaret Conlon FF could make it. If O'Caoláin pulls a massive vote (15000 +), which is possible, then he may pull Katherine Reilly in.

irishh_bob

Magi11 wrote: »

Has anyone got any predictions for this constituency?
I would have thought 2FF, 2FG and 1SF. But was told by people more knowledgeable than me who reckon it will be 1FF, 2FG and 2SF. With good vote management O'Caolain could drag in a second Shinner.
Is this possible/likely?

cavan - monaghan is by far the strongest ( courteousy of monaghan ) shinner constituency in the country , im surpised they only have one TD as it is

gav86

O'Caoláin might get Katherine Reilly in and Smith might get Margaret Conlon in at the same time, will be interesting to see.

Humphries should take most of Seymour Crawfords voters so should be safe, slightly crosses the Cavan/Monaghan divide also by working in Cootehill..

sq_forever

Possibly,

O'Caolain (SF)
O'Reilly (FG)
Humphries (FG)
Smith (FF)
?

The last seat is between McGuirk (IND), Conlan (FG) and Reilly (SF). I'd call it for Katryn Reilly of SF, but should Forde's (IND) votes go to McGuirk (IND) he would have a big shout.