Somersby

Nulty

I reckon this horse deserves a thread. There is so much to speculate about him and opinions are very much divided about where he should race. Hen Knight I think is absolutely spot on about him though....

Henrietta Knight said of Somersby: "Master Minded is a super horse and to get so close to him is quite an achievement. It would be great to win another Champion Chase and he has plenty of time in which to go further. My initial reaction would be the Queen Mother next."

http://www.derbyshiretimes.co.uk/news/master_hangs_on_in_thriller_1_2957736

Henrietta Knight is keen in principal to point Somersby at the two mile championship for which the gelding can be backed at odds ranging between 8-1 and 14s. The same horse was clipped to 9-2 (from 8) for the Ryanair Chase by Hills.

Knight said: “I was worried that he hadn’t schooled as well as we would have liked yesterday.

“He jumped with his head up so we equipped him with a rubber jointed bit, which is milder. He didn’t sweat up, so it seems he is growing up. He definitely won’t run before Cheltenham.

“At this stage it would be great to win another Champion Chase and he has plenty of time in which to go further. My initial reaction would be the Queen Mother and I am leaning towards that.”

http://breakingnews.ie/sport/master-survives-somersby-scare-490398.html

Knight said of the gallant runner-up: "We've done a lot of work on his jumping and he's not been the easiest to train because he jumps with his head in the air a bit.
"He was fluent today, but it's hard because he has a very sensitive mouth so we have to use a mild bit on him.
"Master Minded is a super horse and to get so close to him is quite an achievement.
"It hasn't made the decision which race we run him in at the Festival any easier at all really.
"He obviously stays well and the hill at Cheltenham will be even more in his favour, but he does love soft ground and you are not guaranteed to get that in March.
"We have two options and we have decisions to make (Ryanair or Queen Mother)."

http://www.setanta.com/IE/Articles/2011/01/22/Short-head-denies-Somersby-Master-scalp-/gnid-86438/

Knight said: "It was heartstopping. I was really pleased with him as he is not the easiest horse. We were so sure that we wanted the Ryanair but after today's performance he showed that he is still able to hold his own at two miles so we might go for the Ryanair next year now."

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/home.sd?story=810885&argument=702200


Whats your opinion on Somersby? Is he tripless, does he need soft ground over 2m, was the VC Chase flattering? Some say he could be a Gold Cup horse but Hen Knight should know a thing or two (or three ) about that.

mdwexford

I think yourself and her could not be more wrong.

McCoy gave Master Minded a less than stellar ride yesterday and he still won. Unless Master Minded and Big Zeb run well below form Somersby cant finish ahead of them in the Champion Chase.

As soon as the Arkle was over last year i picked out Somersby as my Gold Cup horse for this year. Im flabbergasted she still hasnt tried him over three miles. He has stayer written all over him.

This had been a complete waste of a season unless she decides to go for the Ryanair this year and Gold Cup next year a la Imperial Commander.

Actually its been a waste no matter what. In a year when last years big three are all getting on and Long Run and Diamond Harry are the most solid looking 3 mile chasers Somersby should have been given a chance.

Stewie Griffin

I'm guessing she will point him at the Ryanair.

He's a fine horse and I had a good cut off him for the Arkle last year.

Like mdwexford,to me he looks like a GC horse in the making. Great jumper and that will stand to him.

Nulty

mdwexford wrote: »

I think yourself and her could not be more wrong.

McCoy gave Master Minded a less than stellar ride yesterday and he still won. Unless Master Minded and Big Zeb run well below form Somersby cant finish ahead of them in the Champion Chase.

As soon as the Arkle was over last year i picked out Somersby as my Gold Cup horse for this year. Im flabbergasted she still hasnt tried him over three miles. He has stayer written all over him.

This had been a complete waste of a season unless she decides to go for the Ryanair this year and Gold Cup next year a la Imperial Commander.

Actually its been a waste no matter what. In a year when last years big three are all getting on and Long Run and Diamond Harry are the most solid looking 3 mile chasers Somersby should have been given a chance.

I think your missing the point...he has a chance in the QMCC, he probably wont have another. This year he should go for it and concentrate on further next year. Hen Knight is very patient and I'm sure she reckons that it would be better to win the Champion Chase than the Ryanair. Going the Ryanair is the safe option. If it was just about winning anything you can get your hands on it would be a different story. If theres a chance he can win the CC, he should go for it. Theres plenty of time to consider other targets later in the horses career.

Albertas Run, Poquelin and J'y Vole will run in the Ryanair, whats the difference.

The VC probably was flattering to Somersby but he was ridden differently that day and could also have brought about improvement in him.

mdwexford

Nulty wrote: »

I think your missing the point...he has a chance in the QMCC, he probably wont have another. This year he should go for it and concentrate on further next year. Hen Knight is very patient and I'm sure she reckons that it would be better to win the Champion Chase than the Ryanair. Going the Ryanair is the safe option. If it was just about winning anything you can get your hands on it would be a different story. If theres a chance he can win the CC, he should go for it. Theres plenty of time to consider other targets later in the horses career.

Albertas Run, Poquelin and J'y Vole will run in the Ryanair, whats the difference.

The VC probably was flattering to Somersby but he was ridden differently that day and could also have brought about improvement in him.

How am i missing the point.

The Champion Chase is looking very strong this year and there is six id have ahead of Somersby. He will not win the race and will do very well to be in the top three. It is a waste of time much like this whole season has been.

The Ryanair is a Grade 1 with a much more suitable trip and can be used as a stepping stone to the Gold Cup. Of course its less prestigious but its also a more realistic goal.

The difference is taking on the three of them is a hell of a lot easier than taking on Master Minded, Big Zeb and Captain Cee Bee.

Nulty

Also, the VC was run faster this year than any other year its been run under current conditions, in due part to Somersby being raced forcing the pace. Its quite arguable that MM got tired because it was a very fast race. If Somersby gets that in the CC he will be VERY close at Cheltenham. If Kalahari King can finish third in it last year, Somersby can win it.

Nulty

Your missing the point in that:

Trying to win the Champion Chase and finishing 2nd or third is better than winning the Ryanair. There is a Ryanair Chase next year too.

Forpadydeplasterer won the Arkle beating Kalahari King....Forpady finished 9l from Big Zeb last year but Forpady's Arkle was run 9s slower than last years Arkle.

You can't say that these aren't compelling arguments for Somersbys CC claims.

Has any horse ever won the CC, Ryanair and GC?? Somersby could be the first. Although if he wins the CC, I doubt he'll be aimed at the Ryanair unless hes trounced in the run up to the 2012 festival over 2m

mdwexford

Nulty wrote: »

If Kalahari King can finish third in it last year, Somersby can win it.

No idea how you got to this conclusion.

Nulty wrote: »

Your missing the point in that:

Trying to win the Champion Chase and finishing 2nd or third is better than winning the Ryanair. There is a Ryanair Chase next year too.

Forpadydeplasterer won the Arkle beating Kalahari King....Forpady finished 9l from Big Zeb last year but Forpady's Arkle was run 9s slower than last years Arkle.

You can't say that these aren't compelling arguments for Somersbys CC claims.

Maybe in your eyes, id certainly rather win a Ryanair than come third in a Champion Chase.

That has no bearing whatsoever on Somersbys CC hopes, imo at least.

Nulty

I'm saying Somersby is a better horse than Kalahari King. IMO of course.

Agree to disagree I suppose. Good thing we don't share the horse or there'd be blood spilled!

mdwexford

Nulty wrote: »

I'm saying Somersby is a better horse than Kalahari King. IMO of course.

Agree to disagree I suppose. Good thing we don't share the horse or there'd be blood spilled!

At their peak over two miles i think it would be pretty close between the two.

I just think Somersby is being wasted over two miles and it annoys me because i really think he has a Gold Cup in him.

Haha thats for sure, would be a hell of a lot of arguing in the next few weeks.

UrbanSea

mdwexford wrote: »

I think yourself and her could not be more wrong.

McCoy gave Master Minded a less than stellar ride yesterday and he still won. Unless Master Minded and Big Zeb run well below form Somersby cant finish ahead of them in the Champion Chase.

As soon as the Arkle was over last year i picked out Somersby as my Gold Cup horse for this year. Im flabbergasted she still hasnt tried him over three miles. He has stayer written all over him.

This had been a complete waste of a season unless she decides to go for the Ryanair this year and Gold Cup next year a la Imperial Commander.

Actually its been a waste no matter what. In a year when last years big three are all getting on and Long Run and Diamond Harry are the most solid looking 3 mile chasers Somersby should have been given a chance.

Time for Rupert will look the most solid by far if he wins the Argento.I couldn't see Sommersby beating Burton Port or Weapons Amnesty or even Punchestowns if they were to all turn up at the Gold Cup

Morgans

I dont really go for stats - there is a stat to knock every horse out of the running - but novices and the gold cup is one that does strike me as one that makes sense. Time for Rupert has so much to prove. Promising but no more than that. No certainty for the RSA.

Somersby does look to have a Gold Cup all over him. Too slow for the Champion Chase. Plug on for a place maybe, at best. Ryanair should be a minimum for him. I think Kalahari King is one to run back into form in March. Was running an eyecatching race at the weekend before being carried out. Wouldnt surprise me if he finished ahead of Somersby come March, but its Big Zeb's to lose. Best bet of the festival for me.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

but its Big Zeb's to lose. Best bet of the festival for me.

Unless the bookies lose there mind and give us Evens Big Bucks again

mdwexford

UrbanSea wrote: »

I couldn't see Sommersby beating Burton Port or Weapons Amnesty or even Punchestowns if they were to all turn up at the Gold Cup

I think Somersby would rape any of those three.

Morgans wrote: »

Wouldnt surprise me if he finished ahead of Somersby come March, but its Big Zeb's to lose. Best bet of the festival for me.

Not a Master Minded fan Morgans??

If it comes up with a bit of cut i dont think they'll see which way he went.

Morgans

One of the great wins Ive ever seen on a racecourse. Several good performances. But completely overrated. How he didnt drift after the VC, I dont know. If Somerbsy hadnt run, (I dont think he would "rape" Weapons Amnesty, whose RSA form looks better every month) there would be clowns talking about his VC win as the greatest of all time. 20l ahead of Mad Max etc. I dont think Alberta's Run was done with when he fell first time out either.

But that is being crabby, he is a good horse but nothing like the horse we thought he was going to be after his first QC. Big Zeb is simply better.

Nicholls loves his excuses, loves em, (little blood from Kauto) but said that it was the heavy ground that caught MM's wind out on Saturday. Said that he was idling (he was in his sh1te) when BZ should have beaten him at Punchestown. Was the same for Azertuiop back in the day.

So, either the ground is too quick for MM or the ground is too soft and upsets his wind. Looked a world beater that day vs VPU but has never repeated it and I wouldnt trust him to either. (I was fooled by the Game Spirit last year)

Somersby could be one of those who is just a little paceless over any trip. I think he will be hard to win with, but its more likely to be in the Gold Cup than the Champion Chase.

minty16

Big Zeb looks the one to beat for me too. Can anybody post a screenshot of odds ? I bet I'll be sick that I didnt take some of the 3/1 last week,..

Somersby is certainly an interesting one. I'm split on him. I'm with Nulty that this year his best option is still the CC and I expect him to go for it. If he gets a fast pace he would go very close, I wouldn't have 6 ahead of him in the market for it... I can see where the Gold Cup argument is coming from but I think a lot of you may be jumping the gun a little. There is nothing guarentee he will be as good over 3m as he is over 2m. Yes he very well could be , but why not take one shot at the QM the year after he's second in an Arkle. HN has said he 'probably wont be a GC horse' and I tend to agree with her.

Nulty

McCOY: GIVE SOMERSBY CREDIT


Tony McCoy feels Somersby deserves more credit for his run in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot.

The champion jockey won the race on Master Minded but was given a huge scare by the runner-up who closed to within a short-head at the line.

At the time McCoy blamed himself for going too soon on the odds-on favourite but admits he was impressed by Henrietta Knight's charge.

"It (the ride) didn't look as bad watching it on TV as it felt at the time and I look back now and he beat probably a very good horse. If Somersby hadn't been in the race he'd have won 20 lengths and I'd give Somersby more credit than people are giving him," he told At The Races.

"I thought when I jumped the last down the back and came round the bend into the home straight that after I'd kicked I'd have everything killed off by then.
"I was a little surprised to see Somersby was still there but it was still a good performance from Master Minded.
"It probably wasn't his best by any means but was still a good performance to beat Somersby and he's probably a better horse at the beginning of the season and at the end. I wouldn't be surprised to see a better horse at Cheltenham but that's not say Somersby won't improve too."

Despite the Victor Chandler scare McCoy added that Master Minded "is definitely still the one to beat" in the sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham.

He's a dual previous winner of the race but lost his crown to Big Zeb last March.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/01/24/manual_114850.html

minty16

RichieLawlor wrote: »

So they will run an 11 year old in the Gold Cup next year when he barely sees out the 2 miles this year.

I'm blocking you now

Was as shocked as you are. It seemed like he reckoned he was the only one who thought it too. But he was dead serious. Jesus Christ I'm not a WUM . This is true information. He has won over 2m5f before though, and premier steeplechasers like Kauto, Denman will be older than 11 next year, even IC (who'll be going for a 3rd ) will be 11 next year. It's not a million miles away even though I would be surprised. This came from BG's mouth not mine, jesus.

Goldcupfav

mdwexford wrote: »

How do you make out OR are better than RPRs?

Hes being campaigned terribly, not his fault.

Dont get me wrong im not saying Somersby is a bad horse. Could be a very decent horse if given a trip. Well i rather go by OR than RPR. You really believe that Somersby is 3lbs off Big Zeb ??

mdwexford

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Dont get me wrong im not saying Somersby is a bad horse. Could be a very decent horse if given a trip. Well i rather go by OR than RPR. You really believe that Somersby is 3lbs off Big Zeb ??

Maybe a bit more than that, think Saturday flattered Somersby a little.

convert

Some posts have been moved to the QMC thread as they were better suited there.

Morgans

There is some chance that he might, only might, run in a King George, but there is no way he will run in a Gold Cup. Too many rich pickings to go over 3m. 999/1 shot. Big Zeb curls up when his stamina gives out. Had a big ew bet on him in the PJ Moriarity as well as the Reverse Forecast with J'Y Vole. Led looking a cert turning in and collapsed in a hole. Looked like it was going to happen again at Christmas. I think he wasnt fully tuned up and it leads me to believe that there is some more left for March.

I dont think that Big Zeb has needed to get near his best to win this year. Its a good thing. Master Minded had a lot harder race than looked likely at the weekend. If he was my horse I'd race him twice a year. Looks best when very very fresh.

Colonel Sanders

I agree re. Big Zeb.

I always had huge amounts of time for Master Minded. His 08 champion chase win was awesome. As impressive as I've ever seen.

However there is no getting away from the fact that Big Zeb should have beaten Master Minded in Punchestown 09. He looks a different horse now that his jumping seems to have been sorted out and was an impressive winner last year. I know there may have been ground excuses for Master Minded but (from an ante post point of view) Big Zeb is more versatile ground wise and has looked every bit as good this year