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When is the next opinion poll out?

  • 22-01-2011 6:59pm
    #1
    johngalway
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,271 ✭✭✭✭


    Or are they generally not regularly scheduled, just appear? Be interesting to see the numbers after the past week.


Comments

  • #2
    flutered
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,710 ✭✭✭flutered


    tomorrow week, just watch the failures in action, as they have to climb above sinn fein, with an election due.


  • #3
    johngalway
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,271 ✭✭✭✭johngalway


    Tomorrow week? Ouch, with all the goings on in FF that's not going to look at all pretty for them. I'm interested in seeing whether there's been significant change in support for parties besides FF or whether the I don't know's are picking options.


  • #4
    NSNO
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 281 ✭✭NSNO


    Apparently tomorrow's Sindo? http://plixi.com/p/71769376

    Don't know the source of the leak though etc. etc.


  • #5
    smcgiff
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,943 ✭✭✭smcgiff


    8% ?

    WIPE OUT! :D


  • #6
    Chucky the tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19,341 ✭✭✭✭Chucky the tree


    They'll do better at the polls come election time without Cowan.


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  • #7
    flutered
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,710 ✭✭✭flutered


    karma


  • #8
    Biggins
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 34,567 ✭✭✭✭Biggins


    smcgiff wrote: »
    8% ?

    WIPE OUT! :D
    Amazing that there is still even 8% out there supporting them!


  • #9
    the groutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    8% = about 10 seats


  • #10
    smcgiff
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,943 ✭✭✭smcgiff


    the groutch wrote: »
    8% = about 10 seats

    That'd be, let me see... carry the 2, assuming 3% margin of error, yeah... exactly 10 fcuking seats too many!


  • #11
    ISAW
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭ISAW


    NSNO wrote: »
    Apparently tomorrow's Sindo? http://plixi.com/p/71769376

    Don't know the source of the leak though etc. etc.

    I expect SBP will have a Red C today ( from last Wednesday) but haven't seen the Sunday papers yet.


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  • #12
    Biggins
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 34,567 ✭✭✭✭Biggins


    ISAW wrote: »
    I expect SBP will have a Red C today ( from last Wednesday) but haven't seen the Sunday papers yet.
    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/cowen-bails-out-as-ff-hit-8pc-low-2507450.html


  • #13
    lugha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,235 ✭✭✭lugha


    smcgiff wrote: »
    8% ?

    WIPE OUT! :D
    I think we might do well to brace ourselves for a bit of disappointment. 8% is the number that say they will vote for Fianna Fail. I fear that there will be substantially more who will do so but would be embarrassed to admit that to a pollster.

    Something similar happened in the Westminster elections of 1992. The polls had Labour running away with it. It seems that lots of people were secretly content with the Tories, but wouldn't admit it when polled.

    I find it difficult to believe that your bog standard, first, last and only FF man really will abandon them in the privacy of the polling booth. I hope I am wrong of course, but I have a feeling that the Irish election of 2011 might come to be cited as a classical example of how opinion polls can badly misfire.


  • #14
    smcgiff
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,943 ✭✭✭smcgiff


    lugha wrote: »
    I think we might do well to brace ourselves for a bit of disappointment. 8% is the number that say they will vote for Fianna Fail. I fear that there will be substantially more who will do so but would be embarrassed to admit that to a pollster.

    Yeah - it's wishful thinking. The poll is also unable to take into account the like's of Willie O'Dea. I think there'll be at least 20 to 30 FF TDs after the General Election.

    I think they were careful to continue to "groom" pensioners, which will help them.

    A well, we live in hope.


  • #15
    ISAW
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭ISAW


    Biggins wrote: »
    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/cowen-bails-out-as-ff-hit-8pc-low-2507450.html


    http://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2010/09/05/quantum-engineering/
    1) There is a problem with their sampling methodology,
    (2) a flaw has suddenly arisen in the methodologies of both the major polling companies, who use samples of 1,000+ and have a proven track record, or
    (3) the results are made to order.

    A previous Quantum poll in January 2009 famously showed 55% in favour of Lisbon, 37% against, and 15% undecided, a grand total of 107%!

    I just don't trust this poll.


  • #16
    hallelujajordan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,080 ✭✭✭hallelujajordan


    FF polled at 8% in this poll but 22% of people said that they would be more likely to vote for FF if they changed their leader . . . this tells me that there is a potential floating vote of 30% who might vote for FF come polling day and this poll was done prior to Cowens announcement yesterday. Next Sundays RedC poll may be more informative


  • #17
    Biggins
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 34,567 ✭✭✭✭Biggins


    hallelujajordan wrote: »
    FF polled at 8% in this poll but 22% of people said that they would be more likely to vote for FF if they changed their leader . . . this tells me that there is a potential floating vote of 30% who might vote for FF come polling day and this poll was done prior to Cowens announcement yesterday. Next Sundays RedC poll may be more informative
    Just from a mathematics point of view that 8% might be part of the higher 22% so I wouldn't be just adding the two together either!

    Just a point of possibility.


  • #18
    Mr.Micro
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,336 ✭✭✭Mr.Micro


    hallelujajordan wrote: »
    FF polled at 8% in this poll but 22% of people said that they would be more likely to vote for FF if they changed their leader . . . this tells me that there is a potential floating vote of 30% who might vote for FF come polling day and this poll was done prior to Cowens announcement yesterday. Next Sundays RedC poll may be more informative

    Why on earth would voters vote for FF unless they are mad? Sneery Martin or Lenny as leader would make the world of a difference? All the economic disaster would be wiped out overnight and EU/IMF bailout was not real? If FF really believed such a poll why then did they opt to keep Biffo last Tuesday and allow him to stay on as Taoiseach? It suggests to me that its pure BS this 30%, nobody could be that stupid?


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