The cold of 1740

jimmy.d

http://www.semp.us/publications/biot_reader.php?BiotID=442

jambofc

ah yes i remember it well.....

morticia2

jimmy.d wrote: »

http://www.semp.us/publications/biot_reader.php?BiotID=442

Didn't catch the reason for the cold...volcanoes?? Mini ice age?? Lack of sunspots? Does anyone know?

More importantly, is there any inference for today?

up for anything

I asked the volcano question elsewhere. Here are the replies.

The frost you linked to is within the general period of what has been known as the “Little Ice Age”. I don’t know too much about it, but it seems to have affected different places at different times between the 17th and early 19th centuries. So far as I know, there wasn’t a specific eruption which could account for the Irish frost; 1739/40 seem to have been pretty quiet years volcanically. There WAS a VEI5 from Tarumai (Hokkaido) in 1739, but I doubt that could have been responsible

here is the thing about eruptions. Most weather guys will tell you its the equatorial volcanoes that cause the most damage to the immediate environment… E.g. Renato’s little problem. The Ruskies are a lot more pragmatic along with my faves…. The Icelandics. The upper latitude volcanoes for me cause incredible damage not so much to the immediate environment, but where they go.

For instance… If it goes in Iceland with anything of any consequence its only a hop and a jump up into the polar reaches. The Rus like me believe mostly that the SO2 and other crap gets entrained into the lows that form over Greenland and then carried to the north.

Now if you havent ever been above 65 degrees in the North Latitudes you will first notice that the cloud bases are much lower but generate hellish weather. Around the ice areas at the top and bottoms of the earth, you could put a house on 50 foot high stilts and be completely out of the weather. Down below? It would and could be blowing 75 miles per hour and -70 or so. So, if you block the sun in the springtime when the sun is starting to warm the carbon and dark particles in the ice (remember its dark for about 6 months) with reflective crap in the very low atmosphere it could/would account for it.

The transport mechanisms for a equatorial volcano would be much longer to make it to the top or bottom and it would rain out along the way. If it popped into the upper atmosphere at the equator then yes it would be very bad… But that hasnt happened recently.

Kasatochi, SakuraJima, Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Katla, Eyjaf, Chaiten, etc have all blown and recently and the weather just aint been the same since. That though is the theory of this and if the northern transport theory is even 1/2 right we are going to see dead people and a lot of them as the effects of volcanic eruptions are well known. Doesnt take a Toba or a Yellowstone to kill a load of people, cumulative effects are just as good and you have more chances of the “tip over” effect.

This was the thing that absolutely angered loads of scientists and I have a degree in this but like I said, it would have never paid the bills. The IPCC almost categorically excluded them from the “climate change” debate when it was well documented as to the effects. They also excluded people from the debate or peer review of the work. Wont go into the Climategate issues about skewed data… Just will state that Tambora blew and 100,000 died of starvation, and several dozen others along the line of history. They pump more crap in an afternoon into the atmosphere than anything that man could do and its on the increase worldwide.

Is it a cycle? Is it the cause of the great cold you speak of… Well that would take some sort of dynamic proof and well all you have to do is look at the pictures of glacial ice calving off into the oceans. There are lines of soot in them laterally. Then….above those lines hundreds of feet of ice.

It doesnt matter what caused the soot…could have been a comet, asteroid or god forbid a volcano. The bottom line is that its a K/T boundary of sorts. Ice always formed in high amounts after there was more than about 4 inches of soot. Informationally they are checking the polar ice now for lay downs of this soot in the ice in Russia and Alaska.

I believe thats the reason the Ruskies are saying we are going to be in an ice age in two years. It would make sense as the smallest layering of ice when there was 4 inches or more of soot was something like 20 feet. Thats a helluva lot of snow that compresses, gets supercooled by the ensuing winters and then takes a trek to the sea. For instance if you compress snow into ice and put an annual temperature of say 18 degrees on it, then it will have a tendency to remain for long periods at that temp, even in the face of heating from the sun at the surface. It fairly well insulates itself with meltwater and then when winter returns at 18 degrees, that meltwater becomes ice again…. at 18 degrees.

Its oversimplified but thats the idea anyway. Makes terrible sense that if this continues and we get snowfall after snowfall that becomes more and more reflective and the clouds are eaten up by the SO2 and reflect even more that GW could become GC.

So whats the answer? Nothing but conjecture about the volcanic effects. We can always say that the years after a major eruption were cooler… and hotter in a lot of places. But what causes it? Dont know.

For me though its like everything else in this world… If we determined that it was volcanoes that caused climate change there would be someone demanding that we do something about it because it would be screwing with someones income, life styles, green style or non green style.

LOL

MRK- agree with you on the high latitude volcanoes. Summers here in Ne Oregon have been Green Tomato summers for the last two. Looks like that’s going to happen again- got parts and plans for my green house in
the shop…
I’ve said the Russians know cold like George Hamilton knows toasted..

@MRK

Pragmatic… nice. No.. very nice.

Along those same lines, I don’t know what the cause(s) are, but Bond events are oddities in the climate that seem to have some periodicity. In general, these are “ice rafting” events where rock and debris get transported away from the point of origin and are deposited by… ice. There are other indicators… but the rafting events seem to be the source of the theory.

Per Wikipedia, these events may be associated or similar to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last glacial period. Bond events are all Holocene, and seem to have a 1,470 ± 500 year period.

Using the dates listed in Wikipedia, here is how they plot. The year is the y axis, x just denotes which Bond event it is. I’ve added a few tidbits from the historical record to help with an idea of the time-frame.

http://i54.tinypic.com/2wrops6.png

Notice when the next Bond event should be occurring?

Real soon if it hasn’t already started.

Sponge Bob

up for anything wrote: »

I asked the volcano question elsewhere. Here are the replies.

Bond Events were abolished by global warming, along with every other oddity of climate and weather. :cool: