Charlesland in the Times

loyatemu

surprised no-one has posted this already:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2011/0120/1224287935846.html

also being discussed over on the property board

GingerDave

loyatemu wrote: »

surprised no-one has posted this already:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2011/0120/1224287935846.html

also being discussed over on the property board

WOW. First time i have seen an honest article on property for ages.
I think the guys who are trying to sell the 3 bed in Charlesland for €295 are about right, may 10% less they might get a sale.

As for the quote at the end that other buyers have said they are dragging the rest of the market down!!! You have to laugh, the market will decide the price not the seller!

Lots of denial still going on about house prices in charlesland/ greystones in general....no value there yet at all.

But €295 for a three bed is more realistic for sure. Fair play.

FirstIn

Re Greystones/Charlesland and "no value there yet at all". I hope there never will be any value. Greystones like Stella Artois, reassuringly expensive.

GingerDave

FirstIn wrote: »

Re Greystones/Charlesland and "no value there yet at all". I hope there never will be any value. Greystones like Stella Artois, reassuringly expensive.

You expect to pay a premium for a nice place to live in a nice area such as Greystones, doesn't mean you can't have realistic house prices, which are good value rather than over priced. The bubble is still popping.

2011

You expect to pay a premium for a nice place to live in a nice area such as Greystones, doesn't mean you can't have realistic house prices, which are good value rather than over priced. The bubble is still popping.

+1

Alun

What a ridiculous title to that article "What's a house worth now: does anyone know?" Yes, it's very easy and it's been the same since time immemorial, the same as for anything else .. what someone is prepared to pay for it.

cuddlycavies

Alun wrote: »

What a ridiculous title to that article "What's a house worth now: does anyone know?" Yes, it's very easy and it's been the same since time immemorial, the same as for anything else .. what someone is prepared to pay for it.

+1
The notion of worth or value is just that. Notional. All sorts of factors apply including aspirations, prestige, snobbery.
At the moment we can use the word undervalued in the knowledge that there are many couples in a position to buy but holding off for all the reasons we know too well. As soon as things turn, these people will enter the market and things will move slowly upwards. I believe all Charlesland phase 1 and 2 or buyers will be out of negative equity in 18mths.

Blandpebbles

cuddlycavies wrote: »

+1
The notion of worth or value is just that. Notional. All sorts of factors apply including aspirations, prestige, snobbery.
At the moment we can use the word undervalued in the knowledge that there are many couples in a position to buy but holding off for all the reasons we know too well. As soon as things turn, these people will enter the market and things will move slowly upwards. I believe all Charlesland phase 1 and 2 or buyers will be out of negative equity in 18mths.

The Sloweys are 90k in negative equity if they are lucky. Do you really think house prices are going to rise by 90k in 18 months?

The banks are already resetting salary mutlipiers back to loans of 3.5 your salary and I am sure the average salary is not 100k and trackers will be gone shortly so again no easy mortgages for buyers.

When you have long established housing estates in Greystones central to the town and transport Charlesland estates will always suffer. Not wishing to cause friction, it is woefully over priced for what it is and where it is. Having lived there I know this to be true. The only way prices there can go is down to 2003 prices.

Also how does a family paying a motrtgage and raising a kid save 90k to cover their negative equity, hardly the average family example for a paper to use.

slickmcvic

FirstIn wrote: »

Greystones like Stella Artois, reassuringly expensive.

....absolutely

cuddlycavies

Blandpebbles wrote: »

The Sloweys are 90k in negative equity if they are lucky. Do you really think house prices are going to rise by 90k in 18 months?

The banks are already resetting salary mutlipiers back to loans of 3.5 your salary and I am sure the average salary is not 100k and trackers will be gone shortly so again no easy mortgages for buyers.

When you have long established housing estates in Greystones central to the town and transport Charlesland estates will always suffer. Not wishing to cause friction, it is woefully over priced for what it is and where it is. Having lived there I know this to be true. The only way prices there can go is down to 2003 prices.

Also how does a family paying a motrtgage and raising a kid save 90k to cover their negative equity, hardly the average family example for a paper to use.

Dont know about the Sloweys. Their house is phase 3 or 4. I said 1 and 2. In which case houses(3 bed) that were bought for 335 to 360k MAY be as low as €295K now and yes they could realise value of €350k in 18mths.
Banks will lend again when employment returns. People will tell lies about their income to get larger loans. You must remember that the place we are in is not forever. This is cyclical,

darter

cuddlycavies wrote: »

Dont know about the Sloweys. Their house is phase 3 or 4. I said 1 and 2. In which case houses(3 bed) that were bought for 335 to 360k MAY be as low as €295K now and yes they could realise value of €350k in 18mths.
Banks will lend again when employment returns. People will tell lies about their income to get larger loans. You must remember that the place we are in is not forever. This is cyclical,

I don't see a rise in real estate of 20% (€290K -> €350K) over the next 18 months. We'll be lucky if it stays flat. The greater likelihood - given the slowing economy, emigration, reducing job prospects, etc. - is for even further drops over the next 3 years or so until our economy is once more robust.

A very good estimator of resale value is 200 times the monthly rent. Works in many other places of the world. If a 3-bed will rent for €1,000 max, then it will sell for €200K max.

"People will tell lies about their income to get larger loans." - the banks have been really stung by lies. They will want paperwork coming out the wazoo to prove income before making any loan.

"This is cyclical" - yes it is, you are right there. But the cycle time is much longer than 5 years. It took London 15 years to recover from the real estate crash of the early-1990s. Same in many other places that have been through this.

If you can get €295K now, go for it! Then rent back the same house, and buy it back in a year when it's €250K.

Box09

cuddlycavies wrote: »

Dont know about the Sloweys. Their house is phase 3 or 4. I said 1 and 2. In which case houses(3 bed) that were bought for 335 to 360k MAY be as low as €295K now and yes they could realise value of €350k in 18mths.
Banks will lend again when employment returns. People will tell lies about their income to get larger loans. You must remember that the place we are in is not forever. This is cyclical,

You are dreaming there cuddycavies. Prices will not be back in 18 months. I just got mortgage approval for my first mortgage and had to jump through hoops for it even with great savings, permanent job for last 6 years, no debts... The banks have no cash to lend and cetainly won't have any more "when employment returns."! The value of your house will still be worth less than you paid for in 5 years time. There is still considerable oversupply in the market and it's not going to change until the market bottoms out.

ciaran67

You can always tell in property discussions who bought at the top end of the market.

cuddlycavies

You can generally judge the quality of peoples linves by the tone of their statements and the optimism of their outlook. Thankfully I bought off the plan before the Court was built and am about line ball in terms of owing and current price. But ultimately it's a place to live. A nice place.

Blandpebbles

ciaran67 wrote: »

You can always tell in property discussions who bought at the top end of the market.

Just what I was thinking.

2011

In which case houses(3 bed) that were bought for 335 to 360k MAY be as low as €295K now and yes they could realise value of €350k in 18mths.

No offense but I think it is this type of "logic" that got many people into the mess that they are in now.

I have seen nothing to indicate that prices will rise in the next 18 months. Anecdotal evidence would make me think the trend is still downwards.

cuddlycavies

No offence taken. One would expect property to increase when buying otherwise most of us would not buy. Of course we were sold a pup in the form of a property boom. But trust me, when a country is in a downward spiral people can only see down in the same way they could only see up three years ago. Of course it will turn around some day. Nobody wants to call the bottom of the market because nobody wants to put their reputation on it.

Blandpebbles

but the turnaround won't be in 18 months.

I will put my head on the chopping block here and predict the following -

1. Banks revert to 3.5 times salary multiplier and proven savings history (3-5 years)
2. Move to remove tracker mortgage owners, not sure how, but it will have to happen to ensure banks remain viable.
3. Fixed rate mortgages will no longer be offered by banks
4. Variable only mortgages to be offered.
5. ECB will begin raising interest rates September/October 2011
6. Property Tax and removal of mortgage interest relief (already happening)


Effect -

1. Housing market sales slow down further
2. House prices drop to 2004/5 levels slowly
3. Rate of defaults and repossessions increases due to inability to pay rising mortgages, property tax and lack of tax relief.
4. Property prices begin to rise by slowly due to the resetting of salaries, expectations and fiscal attitude of government and public.

Cycle

Bad downward 2007-2017
Median straight line 2017-2021
Good upward 2021 - onwards (Good means correct not Celtic Tiger good)


And to stay on topic ...

Charleland houses will not go back to Celtic Tiger prices in the short term (10 years) but will start to creep up after that.

So I will look forward to the article in the Irish Times in 2021.

darter

Blandpebbles wrote: »

2. House prices drop to 2004/5 levels slowly

House prices are already at 2002 levels, and some say 2000 levels. The "problem" being that there is no National Sales Registry, so we know what people are asking, but not what people are paying... and there are virtually no auctions anymore.

I agree with almost everything else, but would be a little more optimistic, but not much.

As I said, if you can sell now for €295K then do it! Rent for a year and buy back for €250K, or wait 2 years and buy back for €225K...

ciaran67

darter wrote: »

House prices are already at 2002 levels, and some say 2000 levels. The "problem" being that there is no National Sales Registry, so we know what people are asking, but not what people are paying... and there are virtually no auctions anymore.

I agree with almost everything else, but would be a little more optimistic, but not much.

As I said, if you can sell now for €295K then do it! Rent for a year and buy back for €250K, or wait 2 years and buy back for €225K...

Pendulum always swings back, as my Dad used to say.

Theres also a new problem of people deluding themselves that it will all turn around soon and they wont get hammered by negative equity. Dont blame them of course but its gonna take a lot for people to take that hit and sell and get the market moving.

GingerDave

ciaran67 wrote: »

Pendulum always swings back, as my Dad used to say.

Theres also a new problem of people deluding themselves that it will all turn around soon and they wont get hammered by negative equity. Dont blame them of course but its gonna take a lot for people to take that hit and sell and get the market moving.

Well I'm glad that Ireland is relying on what your dad used to say.....that's like relying on the current irish political system to get us all out of this hole in the next century!!!:D

ciaran67

GingerDave wrote: »

Ireland is relying on what your dad used to say

Sorry, where did i say that?

The Bishop Basher

I agree with Blandpebbles. It will take at least 15 to 20 years to rebuild a viable and sustainable property sector. Prices won't rise till that happens. Our banking crisis will get significantly worse before it bottoms out, and it is likely to take our economy with it as a result of poor policy decisions.

Anyone who thinks the only way from here is up is in for a nasty surprise.

LEIN

This discussion can continue on the property board.