General Election 2011 - Dublin North Central

Sleepy

Wikipedia currently lists 5 candidates for Dublin North Central. Anyone know of others who've indicated they're likely to throw their hat in the ring?

• Richard Bruton (FG)
• Seán Haughey (FF)
• Aodhán Ó Riordáin (Lab)
• John Lyons (ULA)
• Finian McGrath (Ind)

At present, I'm likely to just give a first preference to Bruton and leave it at that. The rest are the usual bunch of teachers, deluded single issuers and third generation parasites that I couldn't stomach even giving a third preference to...

Bruton seems most likely to top the poll to me but it'd be nice to have someone to give a second preference to should my vote transfer from his surplus...

Colmo52

http://fullhouse.whitebox.ie/

Ivor Callely (FF) (Chancer)
Richard Bruton (FG)
Seán Haughey (FF)
Aodhán Ó Riordáin (Lab)
John Lyons (ULA)
Finian McGrath (Ind)
Bronwen Maher (Ind)
Naoise O Muiri (FG)

Sleepy

Is Callely really running?! :eek:

Will have to look up Maher and O Muiri, never heard of either of them...

The Volt

Aodhán should be due a seat here.

Het-Field

Sleepy wrote: »

Is Callely really running?! :eek:

Will have to look up Maher and O Muiri, never heard of either of them...

Callely issued Christmas Cards, and a 2011 "Explaining The Budget" leaflet to the constituency.

I think that suggests intent to run.

mikemac

Wasn't Senator Fergal Quinn going to run there?
I was sure it was mentioned at the last election, not sure

steelcityblues

Bruton and O'Riordan are home and dry.

Fight between Haughey and McGrath for the last.

A Haughey losing his seat here would certainly be memorable ocassion!

Sleepy

It'd be almost enough to make me give McGrath a transfer

snickerpuss

I was pondering this myself earlier.

I'll be giving Bruton my number 1, top notch lad. Calls around all the time, does newsletters, answers any queries promptly and in great detail.

Will prob give Aodhan my number 2. And nothing for Finian this time!

outandabout

I think Bruton will top the poll with a big majority so FG could consider adding a second candidate to benefit from his transfers. Sean Haughey could get a seat but he faces strong opposition from Labour and Finian McGrath.

I'd predict FG 1, Lab 1, FF but this one could go right down to the wire.

outandabout

Is Callely really running?!

Will have to look up Maher and O Muiri, never heard of either of them
...
Hi Sleepy

There are rumours of Callely running but I don't think he will. O'Muiri is FG and Maher is ex-Green. Maher has no hope of getting elected in my opinion but O'Muiri could benefit from Bruton transfers.

outandabout

FG have already posted out election material for Bruton and O Muiri as have Labour for O Riordain.

Nothing from Fianna Fail yet.

Koyasan

There'll be a Green candidate there as well. They have a policy of running people in every constituency so that even if there's only a handful of Grene voters, they still have the option, and can then give their number 2 to someone with a better chance. Joys of STV.

outandabout

I've voted for Green before but not this time after their performance in propping up Fianna Fail.

They have some good candidates but they should have pulled out of Government a long time ago.

Dabhach

Interesting that Bruton should be a shoe-in. He's a nice bloke (I live in NC and have met him several times) but like all blueshirts, he's right wing, 'buisness friendly' and would, in government, end up bringing in the same kind of light-touch regulation as FF did in their turn, the same mentality that got us into this mess in the first place. I'll be voting to strengthen the left, which means certainly McGrath, and possibly Labour, although I'm not sure Labour constitutes the left anymore, and Joan Burton didn't do herself or her party any favours the other night on Vincent Browne's programme.

What really interests me, though, is the fact that so much of Bruton's vote is personal. People who wouldn't otherwise vote for FG might vote for him because of his admirably hard working record for the constituency. This is a factor which may be replicated across all the constituencies, and it's one that's very hard to quantify. FF are going to take the biggest hit of their history next month, but I don't believe they'll be coming back with twenty seats because the personal votes alone are going to be worth at least thirty-five. Add that to the fact that you really can't put a cigarette paper between them and FG on any major issue and I suspect a lot of people are going to vote for the constituency devil that they know, especially when they consider that FG are no different.

Koyasan

outandabout wrote: »

I've voted for Green before but not this time after their performance in propping up Fianna Fail.

FF would have been in government with or without the Greens. The only possible alternative government involved FG, Lab, Greens and SF and Enda Kenny ruled out any possibility of a non-FF government when he said he would not go into Government with SF backing.

outandabout wrote: »

They have some good candidates but they should have pulled out of Government a long time ago.

I disagree. I'm glad they stayed in for as long as they did and made the planning, energy, equality and anti-corruption changes they did. It's a pity that so little of it has been reported.

But more than that, I'm going to vote based on how close parties match my political beliefs, not by whom they've worked with in the past (I'd be stuck voting for SF then, and that would not be an accurate reflection on my politics.)

Dub Counsel

He is getting my number one. Hard working TD for ordinary people and good views on national issues, look him up on kildarestreet.com for details. Not impressed with Richard Bruton never heard him talking out about banking till the crisis hit and he failed to remove Enda Kenny, he is no Micheal Martin !

outandabout

Can't vote for him as he supported the last Government.

Dub Counsel

Factually you are half right and half wrong. Finian support the government for a while till it was obvious that they cared little about the country and then Finian withdrew support.

I think you have to look towards the future. FF is not going to be the government, FG on their own would be scary, FG/Labour with too large a majority might also be scary; so the way to prevent these is to ensure credible independents are elected. I submit that Finian is such a candiate.

outandabout

Traditionally there has been a Labour/Independent seat in this constituency but it's going to be be very tight especially with McGrath, O'Riordan and the ULA candidate splitting the left/maverick vote.

Sparks43

Boo boo

(Apparently Larry O'Toole is Not the Sinn Fein Candidate )



My vote goes to McGrath without a doubt

bamboozle

McGrath is going to (deservedly) lose a lot of votes as he supported the govt for so long.

Bruton getting my number 1, i think i'll only vote Bruton and maybe give my number 2 to Naoise O'Muiri who is a nice guy. Dont think i'd vote for anyone else.

i'd say it'll end up with FG, Labour and a fight out between Haughey & McGrath with McGrath prevailing although Donneycarney seems to be a stronghold for Haughey based on his daddy's popularity.

Dub Counsel

McGrath has been the only person so far to speak out about DublinBus taking away the 27X service. Hopefully others will follow as it would be a great loss to lots of ordinary people in the area who are lucky to work in Mount Street, Ballsbridge area.

outandabout

This morning on the way to work I saw posters for McGrath, O Muirie, O Riordain and Donna Cooney, the Green Party candidate.

I also saw a poster for Micheal Martin who presumably isn't running for Fianna Fail in Dublin North Central

That said Martin probably would poll more votes for Fianna Fail in the constituency than any of the other potential FF candidates.

Is this a fiendish plan?

outandabout

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2011/0202/1224288766326.html

no1pubcrawler

I wont be giving my vote to anyone this time. Richard Bruton went straight back to front bench after his failed attempt at ousting Enda. No back bone. Also went to him years ago to ask advice and after he gave me a reply, found out after that is was totally wrong and could have cost me a lot of money. Haughey is gone.. so is any green that thinks of going McGrath is full of himself. Keeps sending circulars and putting ads in paper saying he got this or that etc when he did nothing of the sort. Sinn Fein haven't a clue. Labour never came near our area since last election so they can hop it too.

dvpower

outandabout wrote: »

I'd predict FG 1, Lab 1, FF but this one could go right down to the wire.

Labour failed to get elected last time out with only 7% of first preferences, and that was with Derek McDowell who had a high profile. This time out they are running with a much lesser known candidate (Aodhán O'Riordáin).

Finian McGrath will also take votes from Labour, so I'd say they're going to have a battle to gain a seat.

FF will obviously suffer, but last time out Sean Haughey was just shy of a full quota on the first count, and that was with FF running two candidates (he's on his own this time round). In all, FF took 44% of first preferences, so it'll take a big swing to unseat him.

I predict the same as last time (FG 1, Ind 1, FF 1).

kev9100

dvpower wrote: »

I predict the same as last time (FG 1, Ind 1, FF 1).

I disgree. I predict Bruton will top the poll, O'Riordan will get the second seat and it will be a big scrap between Haughey, Mcgrath and the other FG guy for the third one.

dvpower

Dub Counsel wrote: »

McGrath has been the only person so far to speak out about DublinBus taking away the 27X service. Hopefully others will follow as it would be a great loss to lots of ordinary people in the area who are lucky to work in Mount Street, Ballsbridge area.

I get that bus most days and I'm going to miss it, but it's hardly a GE issue.

dvpower

kev9100 wrote: »

I disgree. I predict Bruton will top the poll, O'Riordan will get the second seat and it will be a big scrap between Haughey, Mcgrath and the other FG guy for the third one.

There seems to be something approaching a concensus here about O'Riordáin taking a seat, but I just don't see it. He'll have to take an awful lot of the FF vote. There's a fair few left leaning candidates, all splitting the same vote.

bamboozle

from talking to folk in my area, Bruton is going to romp home with a lot of transfers to the second FG candidate, i agree with others that i dont see the Labour candidate polling as well as expected, i wouldnt be suprised though to see an outcome of 2 FG and any from Labour/FF/Mcgrath

Diarmsquid

Election debate from near90fm:

http://nearpodcast.org/upload/election2011dublinnorthcentral.mp3

dvpower

Diarmsquid wrote: »

Election debate from near90fm:

http://nearpodcast.org/upload/election2011dublinnorthcentral.mp3

Just listened to that debate. I think Sean Haughey has given up.
Of the new candidates, both Naoise O'Muiri and Aodhán O'Riordain were quite impressive.

There's something quite wrong with Paul Clarke.

dvpower

Got a leaflet from Richard Bruton last night urging FG supporters not to give him their No. 1, but to vote for Naoise O'Muiri instead and transfer to him.
FG clearly feel that they have a good chance of two seats.

cosmic

McGrath is out for me. :mad:

Lyons has my number 1 and Ó Riordáin my number 2. Or vice versa - I'm still torn.

bamboozle

dvpower wrote: »

Got a leaflet from Richard Bruton last night urging FG supporters not to give him their No. 1, but to vote for Naoise O'Muiri instead and transfer to him.
FG clearly feel that they have a good chance of two seats.

whatever it takes to oust the haughey name from dublin north central and irish politics i'm in favour of!

rokossovsky

O Riordain confirmed in writing to me that he will resign his teachers job if he is elected. Furthermore, wont be taking a pension from it either. So he has got my No1.
The field is pretty poor IMO. Save Bruton and O Riordain. I'd almost consider tranferring to the Shinners to get Haughey out. Mc Grath is a spoofer, a big mouth, and he flip flopped on Cowen and his gang. His literature is a joke too. "Finian admits to being 29 years and a significant number of months old" Cmon man your an ou'fella wake up and look in the mirror.

dvpower

rokossovsky wrote: »

O Riordain confirmed in writing to me that he will resign his teachers job if he is elected. Furthermore, wont be taking a pension from it either. So he has got my No1.

Why would he turn down his pension? If he's completed x years of pensionable service, he should take a prorata pension payable at retirement age. I see nothing wrong with that.

Obviously, everyone is pissed off at the special deals that have been available to politicians, especially those coming from public service jobs. But turning down a fairly earned pension is just populism.

One of the things that impressed me about O'Riordain in the nearfm debate was one bit where he was criticised by a representative of a Resident’s Association about some vote in Dublin City Council. Both he and O’Muiri told them where to get off, which showed a bit of backbone, given that this was a local debate that took place in a local community centre.

What I want from politicians is that they would reform the special deals available to them so we wouldn’t see the likes of Enda Kenny promising to forego his teacher’s lump sum (if its not deserved, why not just change the rules) or Michael Martin saying he didn’t give up his teaching post because his substitute would lose their job (if he had to resign his old job to take up his new one, like everyone else, there would have been a permenant post available, not a substitute one).

TheTwiz

I got a leaflet through the door last night from Richard Bruton asking voters to vote for - Naoise O'Muiri no1 & Richard Bruton no2.