2011 Election Subforum

paul71

Just wondering if it is time to open a subforum on this?

Something I wished to ask on such a sub-formum would be a prediction of the number of seats FF would obtain, given the number of senior TDs retiring opinion polls and the seemingly deep routed anger by the public towards them is it possible they can drop as low as 25 or 30 seats.

RichardAnd

How many seats FF will have after the election is a hard one to call. One would imagine they would be considerably worse off but one must also remember that Ireland is an extremely conservative society. Thus, whilst opinion polls say one thing, when the day comes, I would wager alot of people will still vote FF as it's "the done thing" for them.

I, personally, do not expect FF to be in power after the next election but nor do I expect them to be wiped out either. What will likely happen is that FG will get into power for a number of years but I would predict FF will eventually be in power once again, perhaps in a decade or so. Why do I say this? Because they have been the party in power for the majority of the states history irrespective of the recessions and scandals that have occurred whilst they held the dail. I don't see that changing.

PS: Generally when I make a post that doesn't admonish FF someone is quick to jump on it and give me a tongue lashing. Personally, I support no party over any other as I don't believe it makes much of a difference who is in power. That being said, my vote in the coming election will go to the TD whom my careful thought and consideration of the facts at hand leads me to vote for. Who that will be, I am as yet undecided.

paul71

I tend to agree, if you look at the public anger, the polls, the numbers of TD's resigning you would think that 25 to 30 might happen, but I think on an election day given that they are the second biggest organisation in the country after the GAA they will still get numbers out especially among the 2 groups they have continued to protect OAP and PS.

tim_holsters

Even if FF win only 1 seat it will be a further stain on our retarded little nation.

RobbieTheRobber

paul71 wrote: »

I tend to agree, if you look at the public anger, the polls, the numbers of TD's resigning you would think that 25 to 30 might happen, but I think on an election day given that they are the second biggest organisation in the country after the GAA they will still get numbers out especially among the 2 groups they have continued to protect OAP and PS.

Paul must we drag the public sector into every debate?
I can assure you as a public servant i have never voted fianna fail and will not be starting to do so in the next election.

I suggest that if you want to discuss the public service rather than creating a thread on a different topic and then steering it toward the PS you join one of the other numerous threads which want to debate the public service.

RobbieTheRobber

tim_holsters wrote: »

Even if FF win only 1 seat it will be a further stain on our retarded little nation.

I dont agree, do you think the BNP winning seats in the UK makes the entire island of the United kingdom and its population appear stained?

tim_holsters

RobbieTheRobber wrote: »

I dont agree, do you think the BNP winning seats in the UK makes the entire island of the United kingdom and its population appear stained?

Fair point, but it just beggars belief that anyone could vote FF. To me anyway.

RobbieTheRobber

tim_holsters wrote: »

Fair point, but it just beggars belief that anyone could vote FF. To me anyway.

I agree i was shocked by the percentage of first preferecne votes the FF candidate managed to pick up in the recent Donegal SW by-election.

I still feel FF will pick up quite a number of seats in the next election, for a few reasons.
The opinion polls for preferred leader in the next government have Gilmore leading yet his party is second in the polls of parties.
I think that come polling day a lot of people who would ahve claimed previously to not going to vote FF will because they wont vote labour and dont see Enda as a suitable choice for the position of leader.

Those are also before parish pump politics will swing more votes to FF canidates.

steve9859

Many peole in this country look local and not national at election time. They vote for the 'good oul lad that got the road built'. Therefore FF will get a lot more votes than their performance on the national stage justifies. It is a major flaw in our parliamentary system.

paul71

RobbieTheRobber wrote: »

Paul must we drag the public sector into every debate?
I can assure you as a public servant i have never voted fianna fail and will not be starting to do so in the next election.

I suggest that if you want to discuss the public service rather than creating a thread on a different topic and then steering it toward the PS you join one of the other numerous threads which want to debate the public service.

Why not, they are a significant block of voters as are OAP. I am not suggesting that either as a sector have ever supported FF more than any other but that the FF voters amoung them are more likely to continue to support them than lets say the FF suporters amoung 300,000 who have lost their jobs.

It is certainly not the only factor I would see debated as influencing the election but it is one. Another I would like to see debated is where to lost FF vote will go, I certainly would not like to see more independants in the Dail with the appalling vista of more Jackie Healeys representing us, and I am also concerned that Sinn Fein could be a benifactor, the thought of Sein Fein holding the balancing power in terms of number of seats in frightening given that they have no econimic policy other than to spend Tax money we are unable to raise.

Biggins

RobbieTheRobber wrote: »

I agree i was shocked by the percentage of first preferecne votes the FF candidate managed to pick up in the recent Donegal SW by-election...

It never ceases to amaze me (and I'm not just talking about FF here) how many will still vote for a national candidate just because how the potholes was fixed or where street lights where put up!

tim_holsters

RobbieTheRobber wrote: »

I agree i was shocked by the percentage of first preferecne votes the FF candidate managed to pick up in the recent Donegal SW by-election.

I still feel FF will pick up quite a number of seats in the next election, for a few reasons.
The opinion polls for preferred leader in the next government have Gilmore leading yet his party is second in the polls of parties.
I think that come polling day a lot of people who would ahve claimed previously to not going to vote FF will because they wont vote labour and dont see Enda as a suitable choice for the position of leader.

Those are also before parish pump politics will swing more votes to FF canidates.

Yep the Donegal by-election first preference vote for FF was high but then it is Donegal. But I still didn't think it would be that high.

I concur with what you've said re Gilmore and Kenny.

Personally I won't be voting for FG or Labour either. I despair, I'm almost considering voting SF something that would of been anathema to me in the past. In fact it probably still is and come polling day I won't be able to do it.

paul71

tim_holsters wrote: »

Yep the Donegal by-election first preference vote for FF was high but then it is Donegal. But I still didn't think it would be that high.

I concur with what you've said re Gilmore and Kenny.

Personally I won't be voting for FG or Labour either. I despair, I'm almost considering voting SF something that would of been anathema to me in the past. In fact it probably still is and come polling day I won't be able to do it.

That is a real concern, FG and Labour are not really offering anything new and I really fear that a protest vote could give SF 30 seats leaving them with the balance of power and we effectively get a coalition party with what are essentially communist economic policies.

tim_holsters

paul71 wrote: »

That is a real concern, FG and Labour are not really offering anything new and I really fear that a protest vote could give SF 30 seats leaving them with the balance of power and we effectively get a coalition party with what are essentially communist economic policies.

FG and Labour seem to be offering no real reform whatsoever.

Once the date of the election is announced I'm hoping for something radical then, but I won't be holding my breath.

Our whole system of democracy is totally infected.

upinthesky

as little as possible hopefully are country needs change time to give someone else a go i without doubt will be voting SF

fat__tony

Anyone who votes for FF really need to take a long look at themselves.

They are effectively voting for the party who stood by over the destruction of the country's economy over the past 3 years. There is no excuse.

Fianna Fail should never be allowed to govern again. They have committed a serious crime against the people of Ireland. The government ministers should be prosecuted for their appalling mismanagement.

macannrb

I would tend to agree with Richardand. FG and labour are odds on getting into power (1/16 on paddy power!) but when they start bring government expenditure into line with gov revenue, they will be more hated the FF at the moment. The electorate will forget who caused the destruction and just focus on who is making the cuts. Looking at the four year plan, FF have left the hard decisions to the next government knowing it will destroy their popularity. And the other factor that comes into it is that FG and labour have very different policies. A similar government seems to work in the UK at the moment, but if I was a betting man, I'd say FG and labour won't be as civil to each other as the tories and lib dems. And remember ff have only once before had less then 40% of the vote. Their destruction is highly unlikely as much as some people will hope

RichardAnd

macannrb wrote: »

I would tend to agree with Richardand. FG and labour are odds on getting into power (1/16 on paddy power!) but when they start bring government expenditure into line with gov revenue, they will be more hated the FF at the moment. The electorate will forget who caused the destruction and just focus on who is making the cuts. Looking at the four year plan, FF have left the hard decisions to the next government knowing it will destroy their popularity. And the other factor that comes into it is that FG and labour have very different policies. A similar government seems to work in the UK at the moment, but if I was a betting man, I'd say FG and labour won't be as civil to each other as the tories and lib dems. And remember ff have only once before had less then 40% of the vote. Their destruction is highly unlikely as much as some people will hope

Agreed. A FG/Labour coalition is a likely outcome of the next election but I would not expect it to last too long. My own prediction is that the next government will be one of those FG blips in irish history. By this, I mean FG get into power for a few years and then FF get back in again for a longer period.

FF have dominated the irish political system for the majority of the history of the state (Ironic as the the party was founded by those opposed to the state :S). Despite the recessions and other disasters over the years, FF have always managed to get back eventually. I don't see this recession changing that.

ednwireland

honestly we will prob get an election this year but donet be suprised if FF drag it out as long as possible

thebman

RichardAnd wrote: »

Agreed. A FG/Labour coalition is a likely outcome of the next election but I would not expect it to last too long. My own prediction is that the next government will be one of those FG blips in irish history. By this, I mean FG get into power for a few years and then FF get back in again for a longer period.

FF have dominated the irish political system for the majority of the history of the state (Ironic as the the party was founded by those opposed to the state :S). Despite the recessions and other disasters over the years, FF have always managed to get back eventually. I don't see this recession changing that.

Looking at the history of the state one might say that but in the past few decades a couple of things have happened.

There was the 80's and the success of the 90's and the perceived success of the 00's.

This is the first time in the nations history we have gone to the IMF for a bail out. Peoples kids are emigrating again just like the 80's despite many trying to say this isn't the 80's again, it sure feels like to many families around the country.

The biggest thing against FF is the mortgage crisis many families find themselves in. They have massive 30-40 year loans to remind them why they can't get the things they like and why they will struggle to send their kids through college. So to say it will all be blamed on the next government as people forget fast who caused the mess may not hold true in this case.

Only time will tell. Personally I'd be very disappointed if FF were still around in their current form by the next election. I'd at least expect a complete party reform to try to get away from their current associations. If the Irish people re-elect a FF party that is the same as the current FF party then I would honestly consider emigrating not because I have to but because I know what is coming down the line again and again and again.

There is only so many times you can watch your country eat itself and not think about the long term future of the country.

macannrb

thebman wrote: »

The biggest thing against FF is the mortgage crisis many families find themselves in. They have massive 30-40 year loans to remind them why they can't get the things they like and why they will struggle to send their kids through college. So to say it will all be blamed on the next government as people forget fast who caused the mess may not hold true in this case.

I hope you are right, but no one protested at the banking guarentee or at pumping billions into Anglo or paying out on subordinate debt holders etc,

These are some of what caused the major problems

But there will be protests when large cuts are made. these cuts are likely when the next government happens. This is the reaction to the problems, but the protestors will blame those who put through the cuts not those who made the bad decisions which caused the problems.

The guy on the dole will blame the guy who cuts his dole, not the guy who guarenteed the banks which drained the money out of the country.

Lockstep

I'm always fairly surprised by the general ideas that FG/Labour/SF are no better than Fianna Fáil.

As imperfect as these parties might be, to compare them with the corrupt morass that is Fianna Fáil is astounding.


There's no magic solutions to the state we're in, but a change of government is something that will offer substantial benefits.

Noam Chomsky wrote:

These may not look like huge differences, but they translate into quite big effects for the lives of people. Anyone who says "I don’t care if Bush gets elected" is basically telling poor and working people in the country, "I don’t care if your lives are destroyed. I don’t care whether you are going to have a little money to help your disabled mother. I just don’t care, because from my elevated point of view I don’t see much difference between them." That’s a way of saying, "Pay no attention to me, because I don’t care about you." Apart from its being wrong, it’s a recipe for disaster if you’re hoping to ever develop a popular movement and a political alternative.

thebman

macannrb wrote: »

I hope you are right, but no one protested at the banking guarentee or at pumping billions into Anglo or paying out on subordinate debt holders etc,

These are some of what caused the major problems

But there will be protests when large cuts are made. these cuts are likely when the next government happens. This is the reaction to the problems, but the protestors will blame those who put through the cuts not those who made the bad decisions which caused the problems.

The guy on the dole will blame the guy who cuts his dole, not the guy who guarenteed the banks which drained the money out of the country.

Possibly but the new government will just say its part of the agreement the previous government made with the IMF which they cannot re-negotiate on that cut for.

Yes there is the risk they will still be blamed but I think its probably the best chance FG will get to topple the FF almost monopoly on control of power in the state.

Racaraghaidh

Fianna Fáil won't be wiped out, not a chance. I suspect there are plenty of 'shy' FF voters as well as people who will vote for particular candidates because they see them as a good TD while disliking the party they're standing for. Nevertheless it can't be denied that FF are in for a historic drubbing. I suspect they will end up in the mid thirties. FG may reach 70 if transfers are good but realistically should finish with seat numbers in the late 60s. It will be interesting to see whether Labour can translate their support levels into seat numbers which isn't something that should be taken for granted, especially since a lot of their support is a protest anti-FF/FG vote.
I see this election as ressembling the 2002 election in terms of the election of independents.

femur61

I will vote FG because I never voted for FF not because of historic reasons but I do think Enda is a liability, I think he turns an awful lot of people off and FG will loose seats because of that. Personally, don't know how my parents voted but always thought Bertie was a little rat. I won't vote Labour because I think the trade unions are to blame as much as FF for the fall of the economy. SF is where my historical voting is evident, can't disassociate their terrorist past. It’s still ingrained in my memory the hurt they caused in the 80's to people

manic mailman

tim_holsters wrote: »

Fair point, but it just beggars belief that anyone could vote FF. To me anyway.

Saw a great quote by someone on here recently that summed it up beautifully for me, goes something like "other parties might be as incompetent but they can't be as corrupt".

Still though this quote also points out a problem that I'm struggling with, what party is the more capable?

thebman

manic mailman wrote: »

Saw a great quote by someone on here recently that summed it up beautifully for me, goes something like "other parties might be as incompetent but they can't be as corrupt".

Still though this quote also points out a problem that I'm struggling with, what party is the more capable?

I think FG are the most capable when you listen to them in debates. People may not like Enda but FG do seem to have the best team of people around them.

later12

manic mailman wrote: »

Saw a great quote by someone on here recently that summed it up beautifully for me, goes something like "other parties might be as incompetent but they can't be as corrupt".

Of course not, they haven't been in power in 13 years and haven't won an election in about 30 years, who in his right mind would bother corrupting them yet?

swampgas

manic mailman wrote: »

Still though this quote also points out a problem that I'm struggling with, what party is the more capable?

This is the $64,000 question. My guess is that we won't be able to judge until nearer the election when the various parties are forced to state what their policies actually are.

I suspect that all the opposition parties are in overdrive right now trying to figure out what the hell their manifestos should be.

They have to figure out the current economic situation as best they can.

Then they have to figure out what policies they think are really needed.

Finally they have to figure out what twisted half-assed compromise versions of those policies they can actually sell to the public. Not an easy task, even at the best of times.

I wonder if that's why we seem to be hearing so little from FG & Lab at the moment...