Increase in live register for December

RichardAnd

IT appears that number of those signed on went up in December by 5,200.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0106/jobs.html

Interestingly, this article wasn't on the headlines on the RTE site but rather, one of the little articles on the list below.

My take on this is that december saw a slowing down of emigration due to the Christmas season. Possibly, many people seeking to leave might have postponed their plans until the new year. If there is a decrease in January, this would probably confirm this theory.

Discuss.

noodler

Its on RTE etc now.

ei.sdraob

here is the CSO document, and webview link

this is interesting, seems non-nationals are emigrating faster

In the year to December 2010 the number of Irish nationals on the Live Register
increased by 14,358 (+4.1%), while the number of non-Irish nationals decreased
by 874 (-1.1%).

fliball123

ei.sdraob wrote: »

here is the CSO document, and webview link

this is interesting, seems non-nationals are emigrating faster

This is worrying considering most companies take on seasonal staff for december

later12

fliball123 wrote: »

This is worrying considering most companies take on seasonal staff for december

Not this year, necessarily. Most people I know working in retail during 2010 might have had no paycuts, but part of the deal was that there would be no bonuses nor extra staff help at Christmas.

RichardAnd

fliball123 wrote: »

This is worrying considering most companies take on seasonal staff for december

That occurred to me too. It's possible though that many of these workers were part time and thus, didn't have to sign off. It's also likely alot of people didn't sign off at all for the few weeks they were employed even if they were required to.

ei.sdraob

fliball123 wrote: »

This is worrying considering most companies take on seasonal staff for december

Well the figures are meant to be seasonally adjusted, but the cold/icy month we had probably didn't help many retail sales jobs

edit: on table 6 the main losses seem to be in;
* craft & related
* sales
* plant and machine operators
* other

fliball123

later10 wrote: »

Not this year, necessarily. Most people I know working in retail during 2010 might have had no paycuts, but part of the deal was that there would be no bonuses nor extra staff help at Christmas.

eh I think you may have misunderstood me ...Usually in December companies employ extra staff therefor it should be taking people off the live reg ...nothing to do with bonuses or paycuts...But actual people signing on

RichardAnd

fliball123 wrote: »

eh I think you may have misunderstood me ...Usually in December companies employ extra staff therefor it should be taking people off the live reg ...nothing to do with bonuses or paycuts...But actual people signing on

I think you misread his post. He said that the people he knows in retail received no pay cuts on the condition that their employer would not have to hire temporary staff nor grant bonuses at christmas.

fliball123

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Well the figures are meant to be seasonally adjusted, but the cold/icy month we had probably didn't help many retail sales jobs

edit: on table 6 the main losses seem to be in;
* craft & related
* sales
* plant and machine operators
* other

But surely companies employing extra staff...ie did on post employ extra staff this year?? santas for all the different shopping centres...extra bar staff for the xmas night out, etc...I would have thaught that at the very least december would have taken some people off the live reg?? or am I being naive?

later12

fliball123 wrote: »

eh I think you may have misunderstood me ...Usually in December companies employ extra staff

Did you read my post?
I was making the point that many people in retail didn't take pay cuts in 2010 in my experience, pay correction occured largely in 2008 and 2009, in 2010 a lot of people took work practice or benefit cuts: these include no bonus payments and no extra staff help during Christmas or for other times of increased demand

RichardAnd

fliball123 wrote: »

But surely companies employing extra staff...ie did on post employ extra staff this year?? santas for all the different shopping centres...extra bar staff for the xmas night out, etc...I would have thaught that at the very least december would have taken some people off the live reg?? or am I being naive?

I wouldn't say you're being naive at all as I was expecting unemployment figures to fall last month too. However, we must remember that the live register isn't a true count of the unemployed and it can be misleading in that regard. I would wager that the numbers of people in employment (perhaps not official employment) went up last month but, as I said in another post, many likely didn't sign off.

All the same, not a nice start to the new year.

Scarab80

This could be a very significant set of figures in my view, it is the first time in 18 consecutive months that the live register has shown a year on year change in trend. See the circled section in the graph below.



If the trend persisting for the last year and a half had continued there should have been about 5,000 added to the LR but approx 15,000 were added. The question then is why has there been this change in trend, weather, emigration, economic slowdown, etc ?

January is usually a horrendous month for live register figures so expect to see another increase, anything above 13,000 added will indicate a contiuation of the trend reversal and a possibly a very bad year for jobs.

Gumbo

later10 wrote: »

Not this year, necessarily. Most people I know working in retail during 2010 might have had no paycuts, but part of the deal was that there would be no bonuses nor extra staff help at Christmas.

+1
my mam works for a large retail store, got a slight pay rise this year and they took on their xmas staff in late November.

although no bonus either, but she she never got one anyway.

danbohan

RichardAnd wrote: »

IT appears that number of those signed on went up in December by 5,200.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0106/jobs.html

Interestingly, this article wasn't on the headlines on the RTE site but rather, one of the little articles on the list below.

My take on this is that december saw a slowing down of emigration due to the Christmas season. Possibly, many people seeking to leave might have postponed their plans until the new year. If there is a decrease in January, this would probably confirm this theory.

Discuss.

hardly a surprise considering 30 companies per week were going into receivership in 2010 , the really interesting figure would be the amount emigrating and not one massaged by our politicians

Scarab80

fliball123 wrote: »

This is worrying considering most companies take on seasonal staff for december

Though it seems counter-intuitive December is usually a bad month for the live register figures.

In 2008 it increased by 22,800, in 2009 by 10,100 and 12,077 this year - alll unadjusted figures.

fliball123

later10 wrote: »

Did you read my post?
I was making the point that many people in retail didn't take pay cuts in 2010 in my experience, pay correction occured largely in 2008 and 2009, in 2010 a lot of people took work practice or benefit cuts: these include no bonus payments and no extra staff help during Christmas or for other times of increased demand

sorry I did misread it but surely there are still companies hiring xmas staff?

later12

fliball123 wrote: »

sorry I did misread it but surely there are still companies hiring xmas staff?

Yes that's true, I just think it should be down significantly on other years.

Gumbo

fliball123 wrote: »

but surely there are still companies hiring xmas staff?

yes there are, but you gotta approach them in late November, not during December in most cases.

fliball123

kceire wrote: »

yes there are, but you gotta approach them in late November, not during December in most cases.

but surely they will still be employed in december aswell??? I dont even want to think what jan 2011 will be like?

ei.sdraob

Commenting on the increased Live Register for December 2010, Éamon Ó Cuív TD, Minister for Social Protection said: "It is normal for the Live Register to increase in December because of seasonal factors. The increase in December can be attributed to people who are temporarily employed in the educational sector signing on over the holiday period. People who are in full time employment but who do not qualify for holiday pay may have signed on and some businesses temporarily close during the holiday period. The adverse weather conditions in December would also have affected certain sectors, such as the construction sector.

Minister Ó Cuív continued: "It is worth noting that the Live Register in December 2010 is almost 30,000 lower than it was at the end of August and I am confident that the Live Register will decrease further during 2011. Other economic indicators such as the stabilisation of the Exchequer returns during 2010 and the positive news on the greatly improved level of exports of Irish goods and services are encouraging as we follow the difficult path to recovery set out in the 4-year National Recovery Plan."

Another FF tool elected by my fellow Galwegians

Someone explain to this guy what "seasonally adjusted" means :mad:

fliball123 wrote: »

but surely they will still be employed in december aswell??? I dont even want to think what jan 2011 will be like?

the CSO document linked has detailed breakdown by sex and industry and is seasonally adjusted

RichardAnd

Scarab80, thanks for taking the time to upload that graph. However, I'm afraid I didn't quite understand your point as my knowledge of statistics is quite limited. Could you explain in a more straightforward manner what you mean when you talk of trends repeating cycles and what this means for the coming year?

Scarab80

RichardAnd wrote: »

Scarab80, thanks for taking the time to upload that graph. However, I'm afraid I didn't quite understand your point as my knowledge of statistics is quite limited. Could you explain in a more straightforward manner what you mean when you talk of trends repeating cycles and what this means for the coming year?

OK. Let's ignore the CSO's seasonal adjustments for a start as they would appear to be wholly inadequate in explaining monthly movements, we still have good months and bad months which are known in advance - we can be pretty sure that the seasonally adjusted January figures will be bad. So it's better to compare the position in January 2011 against January 2010 and notice how the position has changed since December 2011 against December 2010.

Below are the live register figures since 2008 with annual changes (Jan v Jan, Feb v Feb).



Note that rate of change peaked in June 2009, since then each consecutive month has shown a reduction in the rate of change at a pretty consistent and predictable rate (as shown on the previous graph). That is until this month where the rate of change spiked up unexpectedly - my personal opinion is that this is probably due to the weather with outdoor construction workers being laid off for the month and companies defering job hiring, but if it's due to a deterioration in the real economy it could mean that the downward trend for the last 18 months has been broken and we could be looking at a new upward trend in job losses.

zig

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Another FF tool elected by my fellow Galwegians

Someone explain to this guy what "seasonally adjusted" means :mad:



the CSO document linked has detailed breakdown by sex and industry and is seasonally adjusted

jesus thats embarrassing, he actually sounds like he believes what hes talking about too.

fat__tony

Unemployment will break the 15% barrier by the end of 2011.

Thats how bad the jobs situation will get.

RichardAnd

Thank you scarab, I get what you're saying now. Not warming stuff mind but, like you, I am inclined to believe/hope that the rise this month is due to a bad December season.

I really don't think the live register figures will ever reach 15%. I don't say this as an entirely optimistic statement, rather I think emigration will keep the figures between the 13 and 14% mark but who knows really.

danbohan

fat__tony wrote: »

Unemployment will break the 15% barrier by the end of 2011.

Thats how bad the jobs situation will get.

if we counted the people we have forced out of this country in the last 2 years because we could not provide jobs for them i am sure that 15% level would have been well and truly broken already and it might be rivaling spains 20% ,

gurramok

So we have proof that in 2010 booming exports which certain posters point to an economic recovery did not bring the Live Register down at all. Talk about a export led jobless recovery indeed.