The Irish catch on too slowly

maninasia

So just looking at latest Primetime developer expose, yet again the media and the public catch on to some obvious scandal or glaring problem months or years after it has been predicted. It seems we are always a penny late and a pound short when it comes to copping on to something.


- The banks were giving out loans for property development equal to over twice Ireland's GDP by end of the boom (unheard of in any other country), nothing was said about this at the time

- The bank guarantee, hardly a peep out of anyone until Sept 2010 (two years after going into force and) even though it was guaranteeing private debt equal to twice Ireland's GDP and many of the original bondholders have been paid back in the meantime

- Developers were openly 'boosting' the value of their assets pre-Nama yet NAMA still overvalued their loans, nothing was done

- Developers switched their loans into spouses names, a completely legal and predictable target that has been used by other businessmen over the years, yet NAMA and the government failed to deal with this problem at the start which obviously puts a big hole in their plans, again been going on for almost two years, only now being debated!

- The Croke Park agreement was signed even though it was obvious that a part of the savings needed to fix the economy could only be made by reducing salary expenditure, salaries being a huge part of government expenditure, now of course people are complaining about this


So is it the case that the general public is at fault for not educating themselves quickly enough about how the world works? Are these issues too complicated for the 'common' man or not?
Is it they are too trusting?
Or is it the media that is too slow or too incapable in investigating these things when they actually happen and not giving them enough coverage?

What is the reason for this?

later12

Well I think there a several aspects to it

The Nature of the Problem
Many people are quite happy as long as there is food on the table, oil in the tank, diesel in the car and wine in the fridge. The nature of the problem has been one where inevitibilities are put on the longer and longer finger until you run out of fingers. I am talking specifically about the bank guarantee, recapitalisation, nationalisation, bond remuneration, asset values and law reform. See my signature.

Lack of Vision/ Character traits
The can kicking habit lends itself to another character trait, lack of vision. Irish people generally care little for such exotic ideas as Protestant austerity and financial tighfistedness, tending to prefer spending over saving; more than once in our economic history, our policy could be summed up with the expression 'sure it will be grand'. And sure maybe we're right, it probably will be. We do have an embarrassing tendency to drink the dole money.

Political Incompetence
I'm not saying this as part of a party political broadcast, but across the board there is widespread need to look again at the quality of individual we elect into office. We have to begin to support intelligent policy-making, and not by repeatedly voting for showmen, rogues and Jack The lad types. Having said this, there are some valuable political leaders in the Dail, but the problem is largely to do with the public loss of faith in them, and the tragic belief that by cutting salaries (or perhaps abolishing them, who knows) you are somehow going to get 166 Warren Buffets and Dalai Lamas running the place. Unlikely.

Permabear

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CokaColumbo

It wasn't only Ireland which displayed a lack of foresight. That much is clear. Plenty of other countries caught on "too slowly".

later12

I would certainly argue the fact that these matters were 'too complicated' for the common man (whoever that is)

There is nothing complicated about finance and capital. That's part of my beef with the likes of David McWilliams or others who purport to 'tell it like it is'. People don't need 'telling'.

There is no reason why anyone with any reasonable level of intelligence cannot read financial reports or economic forecasts or trading news and take something valuable away from it. They can inform themselves if easily imparted with the information. To suggest that there is is something in there too difficult is, I'm sorry, nothing short of academic snobbery.

It pleases many people, in fact many people I count among friends and colleagues, to think that in finance or banking one inhabits some sort of highly complicated jargon filled environment where upon entering the mine, a mere mortal would erupt into a puff of smoke. Not so.

I am all for electing primary school teachers, solicitors, social care workers, doctors or the unemployed as long as they have a serious and valuable contribution to make and are not going to waste my time or tax.

Someone I have always looked up to growing up, an Irish man; a man who was as un-intellectual as he was bright, as pragmatic as he was Republican was Sean Lemass. He was, as I mentioned on this forum elsewhere, and as some people might say, but a mere draper.

maninasia

It wasn't only Ireland which displayed a lack of foresight. That much is clear. Plenty of other countries caught on "too slowly".

Yes and no. I think the US moved very quickly when the whole edifice was in danger of collapsing. They structured the bailout well and even made money on the deal even if it wasn't morally acceptable to many. The US still has major problems of course.

Germany and the UK dealt with their problem banks quite quickly, the UK has moved to put in more radical changes in their budget than Ireland in some areas even though they haven't been hit by possibility of defauly yet.

Spain, Greece..the PIGS...we all react slowly and resisting every step of the way. Culturally our affinity is with Southern Europe rather than Northern Europe it seems.

maninasia

later10 wrote: »

I would certainly argue the fact that these matters were 'too complicated' for the common man (whoever that is)

There is nothing complicated about finance and capital. That's part of my beef with the likes of David McWilliams or others who purport to 'tell it like it is'. People don't need 'telling'.

There is no reason why anyone with any reasonable level of intelligence cannot read financial reports or economic forecasts or trading news and take something valuable away from it. They can inform themselves if easily imparted with the information. To suggest that there is is something in there too difficult is, I'm sorry, nothing short of academic snobbery.

It pleases many people, in fact many people I count among friends and colleagues, to think that in finance or banking one inhabits some sort of highly complicated jargon filled environment where upon entering the mine, a mere mortal would erupt into a puff of smoke. Not so.

I am all for electing primary school teachers, solicitors, social care workers, doctors or the unemployed as long as they have a serious and valuable contribution to make and are not going to waste my time or tax.

Someone I have always looked up to growing up, an Irish man; a man who was as un-intellectual as he was bright, as pragmatic as he was Republican was Sean Lemass. He was, as I mentioned on this forum elsewhere, and as some people might say, but a mere draper.

Later, I am really with you on this one. The application of learning, hard work, diligence and honesty are far more important than one's background or education. Sean Lemass obviously had these qualities in droves. It's a balancing act, an all round performer is far better than a lazy, easily misled or dishonest intellectual.
Even leaders who don't have the strongest intellectual capability can choose capable people to advice and assist them where neccessary.

Brian Lenihan does not have the financial background to be finance minister though, he was thrown in at the deep-end and to be honest I think he was caught out and ill prepared and therefore trusted too much in advisors that also had their own agenda.

later12

maninasia wrote: »

Yes and no. I think the US moved very quickly when the whole edifice was in danger of collapsing.

I'm not so sure. In many ways we are still waiting for them to move; at least wrt to austerity. There is a good argument to be made that the US have a lot to live up to. I would prefer the example of Britain which is doing very well on reform of public expenditure, Europe, and cleaning up The City without wiping it out.

However, I think you're right about brian Lenihan - a well educated man with every opportunity and a wonderful academic record who has been a disastrous finance minister

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Nolanger

maninasia wrote: »

What is the reason for this?

Best and brightest have emigrated.

maninasia

Thanks, I'm chuffed, where's the rest of them hiding out then

Amhran Nua

later10 wrote: »

Irish people generally care little for such exotic ideas as Protestant austerity and financial tighfistedness, tending to prefer spending over saving;

Trying to find the words to respond to this crap is difficult. I'll just say that the events of the last ten years are not indicative of the sixty that came before that, and as someone who grew up using the same bag of tea three or four times, the average Irish person is quite capable of saving to a degree which would astonish you. Also, I've no idea where protestants came into it, the UK is deeper in debt than we are.

later10 wrote: »

We do have an embarrassing tendency to drink the dole money.

Prior to 2000, Irish alcohol intake was below the European average, and it wasn't for lack of the ability to find drink. The stunning ignorance of a comment like this really is embarrassing.

swampgas

Maybe the next generation can be taught using games? I guess that's the idea behind "€conomia" from the ECB: http://www.ecb.int/ecb/educational/html/index.en.html.

Personally I like the idea of a SimCity-like simulation where instead of Godzilla turning up you have events like the Irish banking crisis.

On a more serious note: are there any economic simulators with nice GUIs that allow people to fiddle around with basic economic parameters and see what happens?

later12

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

But I'm not disputing that. I don't blame people who don't care about CDS data or spreads widening or thin volumes or any other such things. Frankly I wish I didn't care about these things myself. As I said:

Irish people generally care little for such exotic ideas as Protestant austerity and financial tighfistedness, tending to prefer spending over saving; more than once in our economic history, our policy could be summed up with the expression 'sure it will be grand'. And sure maybe we're right, it probably will be. We do have an embarrassing tendency to drink the dole money.

However, what I am arguing is the idea that these things are too complicated

Yes, they are too complicated for the common man, who can be counted on to know next to nothing about international finance. They are too complicated for the primary school teacher or publican who got elected to the Dáil because a sound fella and shure didn't his father get that community centre for the town. They are too complicated for many at the cabinet table.

The fact is that these things are not too complicated, people generally don't care, and I don't blame them. The problem isn't that this is all too complicated.

As an aside, for those who do have an interest, the Government does precious little to inform them. I have a big problem with the way the Government disseminates information, allowing regular working people outside of finance to rely on the Economist or the FT for information at a time of such dire economic trouble. If Joe Public wants to know what AIB shares did yesterday, or what the spread is between the Bund and the Irish bond is, or what the bailout cost is, why should he have to pore over the Capital Markets supplement? That's fine for those who make it our living to care about the minute details of finance, but some people really have other things to do.

Paulzx

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Unfortunately the so called experts in high level finance didn't seem to be any more knowledgeable than Paddy and Mary. Unless of course they just didn't bother making the correct decisions due to chasing the quick buck even though they knew they were wrong.

Paddy and Mary made reckeless borrowing decisions with car loans, credit union loans etc. Our financiars made the exact same mistakes at a different level.

The "experts" are no different to Paddy and Mary. They were actually probably much more reckless

femur61

The Irish people always put others on pedestals. The church, Charlie Haughey is another. We must have inferior complexes and put our faith in others that we think are better than us, more educated than us. What they have done we we think is criminal but has anyone been prosecuted. What Johnny Roanan and his partners are doing is unbelievable. Renting their NAMA owned properties to NAMA.

Maybe it is because we were suppressed for long first by the English that we by nature let others take advantage of us. But now it is our own people that have destroyed us and continue to take advantage.

dan_d

Lack of common sense, cop on and civic/social pride/interest.

Chose to hear what we want to hear.

I just have to look at the stupidity people are displaying on the roads in snowy weather to get a pretty good understanding of why we are where we are....we appear to be completely devoid of anything resembling common sense, and we like to ridicule those who do display it.

jmayo

maninasia wrote: »

So just looking at latest Primetime developer expose, yet again the media and the public catch on to some obvious scandal or glaring problem months or years after it has been predicted. It seems we are always a penny late and a pound short when it comes to copping on to something.

- The banks were giving out loans for property development equal to over twice Ireland's GDP by end of the boom (unheard of in any other country), nothing was said about this at the time

And you know what was even more weird, the banks themselves had realised that property was hugely overpriced as they decided that it was the best time for them to divest themselves of their prime assets, yet they were loaning out crazy amounts to developers at the same time. :rolleyes:

maninasia wrote: »

- Developers switched their loans into spouses names, a completely legal and predictable target that has been used by other businessmen over the years, yet NAMA and the government failed to deal with this problem at the start which obviously puts a big hole in their plans, again been going on for almost two years, only now being debated!

Ehh I think you are getting things a little mixed up ?
Developers didn't switch their loans, they transferred their assets, moved overseas because of easier bankruptcy laws and better taxes. :rolleyes:

Of course the government should have after the bank guarantee, brought in new laws that developers or any other person owing over 1 million (I know 5 million loans went into NAMA) to a guaranteed bank could not transfer their assets or wealth to spouses, other family members or transfer their business operations or primary residence out of this country.

Yes they could have gone as far as the European court, but by the time the cases were exhausted every stick they owned could have been confiscated to pay the debts they are welching on.

maninasia wrote: »

So is it the case that the general public is at fault for not educating themselves quickly enough about how the world works? Are these issues too complicated for the 'common' man or not?
Is it they are too trusting?

The majority of the general public don't give a rats ass about things until it affects them in their pockets.
They would rather watch x-factor, corrie or the premiership than a "boring" current affairs or economics program.
Added to that our much vaunted education system never gave proper civics and economics courses, thus preparing people for basic interaction with banks, etc.

maninasia wrote: »

Or is it the media that is too slow or too incapable in investigating these things when they actually happen and not giving them enough coverage?

What is the reason for this?

The media in this country was bought and paid for by vested interests.
They were not goping to talk down the chances of their paymasters salvaging somehting out of the sorry mess.
Added to that up until recently people like Morgan Kelly, david McWilliams, etc were rubbished by the vested interests lackies.

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Ehh it is not alone the common man/woman that got things very wrong or is that what you would label all the well educated well paid employees of the Dept of Finance, IFSRA, CB, and the banks themselves.
The money was rolling in, the perks and bonuses were as never before so no one wanted to rock the boat and bring in fiscal conservatism.
See how greenspan's notion of the banks being self regulating based on them doing what was responsible for their own long term viability, was shown to be totally irresponsible.

One of the few countries not to have been hammered by the whole global banking f***ups was Canada where more fiscal responsible attitudes dominated.

Your Airbag

You are giving people far too much credit. Average Paddy and Mary do not read financial reports, economic forecasts, or trading news. They have probably never bought a copy of Financial Times or the Economist in their lives.

Irish people generally care little for such exotic ideas as Protestant austerity and financial tighfistedness, tending to prefer spending over saving

Some of the most disgusting and elitist posting I've ever come across.

Trying to find the words to respond to this crap is difficult

Spot on. Its almost not worth responding to but here goes.


Its the high and mighty attitude that is more rampant and damaging to a society than the too ignorant too care stance. I have worked in factory jobs that require no third level education and would be considered low skill manual labor.

After obtaining my degree I now work in an organization where a third level qualification is a requirement. The majority of the staff hold a masters degree and those who have theirs are currently doing their phd's. We ARE one of the leading companies in our field in Europe if not the globe. The financial times are the only papers delivered to our staff canteen of course as most of the staff are above the likes of the daily mirror with its x-factor supplements.

The fact of the matter is that whilst our organization would contain (in their own eyes and its also how we are portrayed in the media) middle to upper class intellectuals they are still none the wiser to how we got into this situation and what we should do to prevent it happening again but of course this doesn't stop them sitting at the breakfast table each day pronouncing their disdain at the countries financial woes and fingering the working class man and his lack of foresight as a major factor.

Complete and utter rubbish. What measures did they take to prevent it? None. They are in the same boat now and instead of getting on with it like the rest of us they must pause and read numerous financial times reports of how we got into this state only to later regurgitate someone else's piece of journalism and opinion as their own as means of equating the particular writers intelligence with their own in a pathetic subconscious attempt to exonerate them selves from any blame in the situation. After all they are too intellectual to contribute to such a situation.

This arrogance and egotistical behavior of so called intellectuals towering above the "common man" is shocking. Too pompous to look at themselves and wonder what they did wrong, nothing of course because they read the Times, an attitude typified by the two posters I quoted above, an attitude widespread and damaging to society, an attitude and arrogance substantiated by nothing but a ridiculous view that a third level education or better upbringing equals greater intelligence and greater intelligence equals fore site and the ability to never make a mistake and share the blame.

Please OP can you define for the the rest of us what the "common man" is? As you typed "the" before "common" and "the" being used, esp. before a noun, in a specifying manner we can all see you don't consider yourself a common man. Please put particular emphasis on explaining the word "common" and when you done what kind of man would you class yourself as?

For the posters I quoted above, as you read the times and are in the know please explain to us what measures you took to prevent this happening? please send links to the warning you posted on boards.ie or elsewhere warning against the impending doom and gloom you were obviously privy too as a result of reading the times.

Actually theres no need. You have no links and no preventative measures were taken. Instead you and your like will gather around the coffee tables of the nation and engage in these pathetic communal backslapping meetings to make yourself feel better. You know the type where you all sit around and quote the times and quote different reports and journalists on the economic downfall, you know quoting names and financial terms you never heard of two years ago in an attempt to feel better and when your all done agreeing with each other you can walk away with an inflated sense of self esteem.

In the meantime the rest of the country will dig in and get on with it. You'll eventually follow but the only difference is we will shake our heads at how careless we as a society were and will not pin point the "common man" as a scape goat.

professore

later10 wrote: »

I would certainly argue the fact that these matters were 'too complicated' for the common man (whoever that is)

There is nothing complicated about finance and capital. That's part of my beef with the likes of David McWilliams or others who purport to 'tell it like it is'. People don't need 'telling'.

In answer to the OP, the same David McWilliams predicted all this years in advance, yet everyone criticises him. He's not perfect, but he's as good as we have. There is far less criticism for people who told us houses were "affordable" up to and indeed after the crash.

Anyone that makes anything of themselves in Ireland gets criticised whilst liars and thieves get nothing but praise. Look at Michael O'Leary vs Bertie Ahearne. To this day there are plenty who say Bertie is without sin.

later10 wrote: »

There is no reason why anyone with any reasonable level of intelligence cannot read financial reports or economic forecasts or trading news and take something valuable away from it. They can inform themselves if easily imparted with the information. To suggest that there is is something in there too difficult is, I'm sorry, nothing short of academic snobbery.

I think you are drastically overestimating the AVERAGE intelligence of people. Who do you hang round with socially ? Do not make the mistake of benchmarking the average Joe with your social circle. You are also overestimating the average person's interest or desire to learn about these things.

Nolanger

professore wrote: »

I think you are drastically overestimating the AVERAGE intelligence of people.

Ireland is intellectually dead. It's all about connections, nods and winks, you scratch my back, who your father is, did you play rugby at school, liking stuff because it's popular rather than good, being a 'team player', political correctness, which GAA county you support, blah, blah...

later12

Your Airbag wrote: »

For the posters I quoted above, as you read the times and are in the know please explain to us what measures you took to prevent this happening? please send links to the warning you posted on boards.ie or elsewhere warning against the impending doom and gloom you were obviously privy too as a result of reading the times.

Firstly, I was not a boards.ie member up until recently so I'm afraid I don't have a back catalogue of posts extending to 2001 when the construction industry began to warm the fires of the Irish household budget. In fact I was doing my junior certificate at the time so I'm not sure I was too concerned either.
However, you do have a point. I attended a well respected British University where a very eminent writer once gave an honourary lecture whereby she lauded aspects of the Irish economic model as something to aspire to; she bemoaned heavily the new Labour model as outdated and retrograde. I have never met her after that lecture but I would love to know how she feels about the model now.
I mention this simply to illustrate the fact that even those who consider them selves worthy of an audience (and in fact she was very worthy of our hungover, acne faced audience) have got it colossally wrong on the economy. If you read my posts, I am actually acknowledging this and defending the idea that economics is not rocket science nor does it have to be inaccessible to Joe Public who after all has a huge stake at play.

By the way, there is nothing wrong with reading the Daily Star or liking X-Factor. Some of the brightest people I studied under and work with have the most contradictory and eccentric interests outside of finance.

Instead you and your like will gather around the coffee tables of the nation and engage in these pathetic communal backslapping meetings to make yourself feel better. You know the type where you all sit around and quote the times and quote different reports and journalists on the economic downfall,

This happens in almost every household across Ireland as far as I'm concerned, rich and poor, middle class or working class, educated or not formally educated.

professore wrote:

I think you are drastically overestimating the AVERAGE intelligence of people. Who do you hang round with socially ? Do not make the mistake of benchmarking the average Joe with your social circle. You are also overestimating the average person's interest or desire to learn about these things.

I am not overstating the average intelligence of Irish peple by simply suggesting that they are perfectly capable of understanding the economic situation provided (a) they care enough to understand it, and if they don't that's perfectly fine and (b)they are provided with easy access to clear information, which is not the case.

Part of the problem is that ordinary people who just want to get on with their lives feel removed from what they perceive to be the jargon of economics as something that requires an MPhil or a monocle in order to easily understand. Not so. Financial professionals and economics graduates are sometimes, unfortunately, only too happy to allow this inflated sense of self-importance to persist. It is entirely un-necesary.

As a student one of the most enduring pieces of advice that a teacher ever imparted unto me was to ask questions like a three year old, answer them like a thirty year old, and criticise them like a sixty year old. The responsibility of educating ourselves begins and ultimately ends with ourselves. I have yet to meet a single person totally incapable of questioning or grasping an economic theory, policy or even a simple graph, and to answer your question I have a wide variety of friends. In fact some of the most enjoyable debates I ever have are with people who have probably never opened an economics book in their lives and if they had one would use it as a paperweight. It is highly educational. You should give the mind of the "average man" (whatever, again, that is) a little more credit.

Liam Byrne

Nolanger wrote: »

Best and brightest have emigrated.

Thanks for the insult. Can I ask if you still live here ?

mistermouse

Its not really about whether the average Irish Man or Woman catch on too slowly, we have a democracy, albeit one that doesn't work well.

We elect Politicians who's only priority should be the welfare of the state - it obviouslly isn'y

We have a civil service, well paid who's first and foremost priority should be the welfare of the state - it doesn't appear so or they are incompetent. The reason they are incompetent and the state does not work is that the civil service, lets say the Dept of Finance, does not change with Government, so if they are useless, they still keep their jobs due to a rediculious Public Sector System, infact get promoted.

Besides all this, the system is made, designed and works to help some.

Everyone knows that transferring of assets is not in the public interest, but someone made these laws, others know they exist, how to use them and further up the tree, others will not change them to protect people they know or themselves - simple as that

danbohan

Your Airbag wrote: »

Some of the most disgusting and elitist posting I've ever come across.



Spot on. Its almost not worth responding to but here goes.


Its the high and mighty attitude that is more rampant and damaging to a society than the too ignorant too care stance. I have worked in factory jobs that require no third level education and would be considered low skill manual labor.

After obtaining my degree I now work in an organization where a third level qualification is a requirement. The majority of the staff hold a masters degree and those who have theirs are currently doing their phd's. We ARE one of the leading companies in our field in Europe if not the globe. The financial times are the only papers delivered to our staff canteen of course as most of the staff are above the likes of the daily mirror with its x-factor supplements.

The fact of the matter is that whilst our organization would contain (in their own eyes and its also how we are portrayed in the media) middle to upper class intellectuals they are still none the wiser to how we got into this situation and what we should do to prevent it happening again but of course this doesn't stop them sitting at the breakfast table each day pronouncing their disdain at the countries financial woes and fingering the working class man and his lack of foresight as a major factor.

Complete and utter rubbish. What measures did they take to prevent it? None. They are in the same boat now and instead of getting on with it like the rest of us they must pause and read numerous financial times reports of how we got into this state only to later regurgitate someone else's piece of journalism and opinion as their own as means of equating the particular writers intelligence with their own in a pathetic subconscious attempt to exonerate them selves from any blame in the situation. After all they are too intellectual to contribute to such a situation.

This arrogance and egotistical behavior of so called intellectuals towering above the "common man" is shocking. Too pompous to look at themselves and wonder what they did wrong, nothing of course because they read the Times, an attitude typified by the two posters I quoted above, an attitude widespread and damaging to society, an attitude and arrogance substantiated by nothing but a ridiculous view that a third level education or better upbringing equals greater intelligence and greater intelligence equals fore site and the ability to never make a mistake and share the blame.

Please OP can you define for the the rest of us what the "common man" is? As you typed "the" before "common" and "the" being used, esp. before a noun, in a specifying manner we can all see you don't consider yourself a common man. Please put particular emphasis on explaining the word "common" and when you done what kind of man would you class yourself as?

For the posters I quoted above, as you read the times and are in the know please explain to us what measures you took to prevent this happening? please send links to the warning you posted on boards.ie or elsewhere warning against the impending doom and gloom you were obviously privy too as a result of reading the times.

Actually theres no need. You have no links and no preventative measures were taken. Instead you and your like will gather around the coffee tables of the nation and engage in these pathetic communal backslapping meetings to make yourself feel better. You know the type where you all sit around and quote the times and quote different reports and journalists on the economic downfall, you know quoting names and financial terms you never heard of two years ago in an attempt to feel better and when your all done agreeing with each other you can walk away with an inflated sense of self esteem.

In the meantime the rest of the country will dig in and get on with it. You'll eventually follow but the only difference is we will shake our heads at how careless we as a society were and will not pin point the "common man" as a scape goat.

For the posters I quoted above, as you read the times and are in the know please explain to us what measures you took to prevent this happening? please send links to the warning you posted on boards.ie or elsewhere warning against the impending doom and gloom you were obviously privy too as a result of reading the times.


dont expect much , they are too busy congratulating themselves on having a cottage on a few acres and a couple gold bars , big deal !!. its obvious that somebody in the wilderness with a Phd an unemployable phd by the way , seems to think hes superior to everybody else , your not pet !

ednwireland

well considering i knew nothing about the difference between, sovereign debt, senior, junior bondholders etc, etc

i thought guaranteeing deposits upto a €100,000 euro was a good idea (which is what i thought the bank guarantee was) BUT as usual there was a lot of other stuff which people had no idea of the consequences.

Fat_Fingers

danbohan wrote: »

dont expect much , they are too busy congratulating themselves on having a cottage on a few acres and a couple gold bars , big deal !!. its obvious that somebody in the wilderness with a Phd an unemployable phd by the way , seems to think hes superior to everybody else , your not pet !

lol, talking about the pot calling the kettle black.... now you are as bad if not worse than those you think are condescending.

danbohan

Fat_Fingers wrote: »

lol, talking about the pot calling the kettle black.... now you are as bad if not worse than those you think are condescending.

am hurt !

Nolanger

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Thanks for the insult. Can I ask if you still live here ?

Yes, but only because most people told me to emigrate when I was younger!

Rabble Rabble

Your Airbag wrote: »

...
For the posters I quoted above, as you read the times and are in the know please explain to us what measures you took to prevent this happening? please send links to the warning you posted on boards.ie or elsewhere warning against the impending doom and gloom you were obviously privy too as a result of reading the times.
...

DF is far less intelligent than he thinks. The reason Ireland is in the sh*tter and the more dirigiste of the economies of Europe are not is precisely because they are more controlling of their economies. This evidence to the contrary would shatter the belief system of all but the most fanatical of cults, but not the cult of free marketeers.

Rabble Rabble

Paulzx wrote: »

Unfortunately the so called experts in high level finance didn't seem to be any more knowledgeable than Paddy and Mary. Unless of course they just didn't bother making the correct decisions due to chasing the quick buck even though they knew they were wrong.

If they had a mathematical model of what would happen with their exotic financial instruments ( which they did), and it failed to predict what would happen ( which it didn't), you would think that the geniuses of high finance would abandon such models and prostrate themselves before the little people.

Instead they seem to be blaming the non-experts for the failure not just of the experts, but the entire economic orthodoxy which surrounded it.

ilovesleep

You asked how did the past two years pass over peoples head. The reason is people have lifes - work and family commitments. I never understood about nama or the guarantee. Heard about them but never understood it and never stopped to take time out and learn.

I knew things were bad because of a recession but never understood how bad until a few weeks ago.

Have done a lot of reading up since. I have been trying to talk to people but im faced with two types of people 1) those who want to ignore whats happening and 2) those who say we'll lie low for a few years and well be grand. People dont want to talk about it either. I believe people know to some degree that we are a sorry state but dont understand what it actually means aside from empty pockets.

ilovesleep

Something else to add to the above - our government has put a spin on things with this four year plan and I think people think the bailout loan is only a short term thing.

Quatre Mains

ilovesleep
I think you make some very valid points. i think you are quite representive of a lot of Irish people - who have families, jobs, kids to raise, and simply havent had/have the time to pore over the crisis in detail. Lots of my pals are smarter individuals generally than I am, but don't understand the crisis.

A big stumbling block a lot of people have is understanding where the money we are putting into the banks is going/ why we're putting it in. Don't forget that for a lot of older folks especially, their understanding of a banking system goes back to the traditional model of using deposits to fund loans, as opposed to taking funds from the money markets. Most people have an understanding of a bond, but can't understand why we're paying them off. They've never heard of a taxpayer paying off investors in a failed company before, their logic tells them that taxpayers don't do that and assume they're missing something!

I think if the people as a whole were aware of what's gone on there'd be massive civil unrest. The whole sad episode has been drip-fed piece by piece. Spin has a huge role to play in confusing people.
Rather than one single major shock, people are given small titbits to make them expect the next small disaster as a matter of course, but never shown the whole picture all at once. Even the ECB/IMF arrrival was flagged over the course of a week - first speculation, then denial, then admittance, then spun as a choice taken by the government.
People who've never had money are hearing 'we're all to blame' and believing it. A pal of mine expressed shame that he'd a 10k limit on his credit card back in the day (all paid off now, not defaulted on), as if buying couple of foreign hols and a new kitchen played some part in this shambles! Another one is 'we voted them in' as though we knowingly asked the government to create this madness. All phrases designed to induce feelings of guilt in working class people and stop them looking for answers.

People also take in the spin that the IMF are the bad boys in the situation, conveniently deflecting attention from the ECB's huge role in all this. They hear the term 'bailout' and think we're being given money, not loaned it. They hear '4-year plan' and as you say ilovesleep, they think thats the end of our problems.

Fat_Fingers

danbohan wrote: »

am hurt !

Sorry, not intended. Apologies , it was not my intention to upset.

maninasia

Good question Airbag, what is 'the common man'. I'd pretty much throw myself in with the common man although I am not by virtue I live very far away from Ireland and have immersed myself in a foreign culture for many years.


Common man to me would be working class/middle class, that's it really. I think people were very slow to catch on to the bank guarantee and it's implications, especially the 'educated' folks. Also it's unusualness, I can't think of any other situation where all private debts were guaranteed by a state. That points to me a severe gap in people's understanding of finance or else in their ability to self-educate (I've not taken a business class since my junior cert, I learnt everything about bank financing and bonds since 2007 by reading online). If you actually checked what the bank guarantee entailed the default was inevitable (banks having loans of twice GDP backed against assets in Ireland, a vicious circle of loans), even from end of 2008, the information was all online. I think the media were happy to go along with the guarantee, RTE being civil service and Independent and others wanted to keep 'the confidence' up so their share prices didn't tank immediately (I think almost all the media in Ireland are debt laden, they didnd't want to see themselves sink with the banks being wiped out).

You have the financial folks who believed in the 'efficient free market' as an ideology when it was simply a model, not applicable in the real world. It suited the financiers to keep promoting this model as it meant little to no regulation and that meant increased leverage and easy credit which of course meant a bigger amount of money flowing through the system that they could get their %s off. They were all making money as long as the credit tap flowed, anybody who didn't join in was probably seen as unproductive, after all the banks were in competition with each other to bring in more profits. This system was perhaps the inevitable result of short-term financial reporting (quaterly/annual), if financial reporting was done on a five year basis would the same issue have occurred? There was no incentive whatsoever in the system for them to be fiscally responsible in the medium/long-term.

I'll be honest here and say that I didn't cop on the boom in Ireland was complete excess until 2006 or so. Also there were books written in Asian countries about Ireland had this magic economy, they sent many delegations to learn the secrets of our success.
It felt good telling people I was from Ireland, a modern country that was leading the way in Europe. Lucky they didn't copy our economy in the end eh? (most Asian countries have quite tight fiscal regulation, many learned their lessons from the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Canada also had a crisis in the 90s, tightened up and avoided the bust fairly well, perhaps it is inevitable that people have to learn from their mistakes, it's just our mistake was way too big!)

Generally I think I could excuse the public not knowing the implications of the guarantee over the 1st six months because of it's overnight implementation, but two years...when the hounds were at the gate...to suddenly get some real debate on the matter (I also agree the word 'bailout' is wrong, it is certainly not a bailout of Irish citizens!). Now it seems to have gone on the backburner again. I saw the budget and my first thought was, the IMF has come in...the country is still overspending 15-20 billion/year, and that's it? Once again I feel it is all about kicking the problem down the road and the public seems to be happy with that.