Are Labour really going to back the bailout?

Cavehill Red

According to Ruairi Quinn (whose brother Lochlann has a banking interest, you might say), Labour will vote in favour of the EU/IMF bailout of billionaires by the Irish taxpayer.

I sincerely hope that this is merely one Quinn spinning for another. I cannot believe that Labour would actually consider doing this. If they do, they've lost my vote forever.

Labour = gutless.

Scofflaw

Ruairi Quinn has always struck me as one of the more economically level heads in Labour, but that's a position that's not likely to play well with a quite large chunk of the electorate.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Cavehill Red

Scofflaw wrote: »

Ruairi Quinn has always struck me as one of the more economically level heads in Labour, but that's a position that's not likely to play well with a quite large chunk of the electorate.

cordially,
Scofflaw

He can't be trusted on the issue of banking, though. His credibility on banks is holed under the waterline due to his brother's involvement with AIB. That's why I think Burton has taken the lead in such discussions generally.
But it is outrageous to think that Labour might actually vote this bailout in after doing so well on the issue up until now.

zig

Tbh, I think both FG and Labour will be voting no in the confidence that it will pass. If they thought it may not pass I think they'd be in a much stickier situation.

Mister men

Today's Labour is nothing like the party the country needs or wants and i hope and pray this is reflected in the upcoming election. Cowards to a man/woman.

digme

Landlords and bankers that's all they are, the lot of them.

PeakOutput

think you have that the wrong way around ill fix it for you buddy

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Labour will vote in favour of the EU/IMF bailout of the Irish taxpayer by billionaires.

whatever you think about the banking part of the bailout they are still trying to prevent the country defaulting as a result of a ridicolous budget deficit

anyway leaving that debate aside

i wont be suprised by any of the parties voting for the bailout they know the option is either that and try and get out of this hole or default next year. sure we might default anyway but that will give us more time to try and fix things first

Cavehill Red

PeakOutput wrote: »

think you have that the wrong way around ill fix it for you buddy

Your fix is a FAIL. The Irish taxpayer is expected to bail out bank bondholders who gambled and lost on bankrupt banks. We're bailing out the billionaires.

PeakOutput wrote: »

whatever you think about the banking part of the bailout they are still trying to prevent the country defaulting as a result of a ridicolous budget deficit

And that's the problem. We need to renege on the bank guarantee and default on non-sovereign debt. Otherwise, down the line, we'll be defaulting on the sovereign debt too.

PeakOutput wrote: »

anyway leaving that debate aside
i wont be suprised by any of the parties voting for the bailout they know the option is either that and try and get out of this hole or default next year. sure we might default anyway but that will give us more time to try and fix things first

The only possible fix is to disengage the banks and let them sink. We've chained the country to massive debts we have no chance of repaying and no moral obligation to repay.
The next government have the chance to do what Iceland are doing right now, which is to cut a deal for their nation's benefit and not for the benefit of billionaire bondholders.
They have the EU over a barrel on this, but instead are meekly sacrificing the country as they are ordered.
I'll be disgusted if Labour vote in favour of this.

Scofflaw

zig wrote:

Tbh, I think both FG and Labour will be voting no in the confidence that it will pass. If they thought it may not pass I think they'd be in a much stickier situation.

I suspect so - the problem for all parties is that there isn't another place to go for a better deal, and the deal negotiated by the government is pretty much fixed by the setup terms of the EFSF (and agreed by all parties to it, including Ireland), which is that they match IMF loan rates.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Your fix is a FAIL. The Irish taxpayer is expected to bail out bank bondholders who gambled and lost on bankrupt banks. We're bailing out the billionaires.

That's something that gets said a lot, but is it actually accurate? Are bank bondholders actually a few shady billionaires? I was under the impression that the largest holders of bank bonds tend to be institutional pension funds - although there's obviously going to be private asset management companies and the like, too.

Still, is it not as simplistic to say that we're bailing out billionaires as that we're bailing out pensioners?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Drumpot

The vote that FF have decided to have was a masterstroke IMO by them, particularly towards Labour.

Lab and FG will have to put their money where their mouths are and either vote for or against the bailout.

For the public, its a chance to get to see if Labour are willing to have the courage to match their convictions. They talk complete populist rhetoric and avoid committing to the most important decisions facing this country. It will be interesting to see how they vote.

Wonder if any of their heads will explode at having to commit to something one way or another ! !

Cavehill Red

Scofflaw wrote: »

That's something that gets said a lot, but is it actually accurate? Are bank bondholders actually a few shady billionaires? I was under the impression that the largest holders of bank bonds tend to be institutional pension funds - although there's obviously going to be private asset management companies and the like, too.

I've posted the lists of bondholders of both AIB and Anglo before. They're predominantly European and UK banks, with the odd pension fund and more than a few billionaires such as Roman Abramovich, via private investment vehicles.

Scofflaw wrote: »

Still, is it not as simplistic to say that we're bailing out billionaires as that we're bailing out pensioners?

It's as simplistic, but not as accurate. To the extent that pension funds are bondholders, they're foreign pensioners. What is the Irish taxpayer's responsibility as it pertains to debts owed to foreign pensioners, or banks, or billionaires, by private banks?

Max Power1

Labour = many disserting voices, however no concrete policies.

This is why they will never get my vote, and why I hope eamonn gilmore is never Taoiseach.

Drumpot

Max Power1 wrote: »

Labour = many disserting voices, however no concrete policies.

This is why they will never get my vote, and why I hope eamonn gilmore is never Taoiseach.

I would actually be much more a socialist then a capitalist, but think this labour party are using Bertie PR to gain votes.

Its kind of ironic that their popularity has spiked the more they perform hollow rhetoric speech's to appeal to the masses at the expense of proper, prudent debate.

Especially considering most of their newly found supporters would be lambasting Bertie and his ilk for winning their votes by doing the exact same window dressing speechs!

PeakOutput

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Your fix is a FAIL. The Irish taxpayer is expected to bail out bank bondholders who gambled and lost on bankrupt banks. We're bailing out the billionaires.

who the bondholders are is irrelevant imo, the banks owe them money, anything after that is just a convenient excuse to get away from the real issue, can the country survie the 3 major banks failing?

And that's the problem. We need to renege on the bank guarantee and default on non-sovereign debt. Otherwise, down the line, we'll be defaulting on the sovereign debt too.

The only possible fix is to disengage the banks and let them sink. We've chained the country to massive debts we have no chance of repaying and no moral obligation to repay.
The next government have the chance to do what Iceland are doing right now, which is to cut a deal for their nation's benefit and not for the benefit of billionaire bondholders.
They have the EU over a barrel on this, but instead are meekly sacrificing the country as they are ordered.
I'll be disgusted if Labour vote in favour of this.

is the recovery of the country after the main banks default longer or shorter then if the bailout works, will the budget deficit be improved or worsened by the collapse of the private sector banks and everything that brings with it? will we be able to get any money from anyone to bridge the gap in the budget if we let the banks fail? i believe its longer and the public finances would be destroyed in the process as well and no1 will touch us with lending or a bailout in the next year which will mean the country defaults aswell

Cavehill Red

PeakOutput wrote: »

who the bondholders are is irrelevant imo, the banks owe them money, anything after that is just a convenient excuse to get away from the real issue, can the country survie the 3 major banks failing?

Since we're being asked to pay the bondholders off, I think who they are is very relevant. They've their hands in my pocket looking for my future income. I should ignore that, should I?
Your question isn't the real issue. Of course the country can survive the failure of three bankrupt banks. There are other banks. Banks that aren't corrupt. That aren't bankrupt. That aren't insolvent. That haven't lied through their teeth to the Department of Finance. That didn't fiddle the books and spoof about it. The guarantee actually drove competition OUT of Ireland when what we need is more competition in the banking sector.

What the country cannot expect to survive is the banks' zombified survival at our extended expense.

PeakOutput wrote: »

is the recovery of the country after the main banks default longer or shorter then if the bailout works, will the budget deficit be improved or worsened by the collapse of the private sector banks and everything that brings with it?

Check Iceland for your answer. Nobody's cracking that gag about one letter and six months anymore, are they? We'd love to be where they are in six months time. And we could, if we did what they did - renege on the banking debt and leave it to the banks to pay.

PeakOutput wrote: »

will we be able to get any money from anyone to bridge the gap in the budget if we let the banks fail? i believe its longer and the public finances would be destroyed in the process as well and no1 will touch us with lending or a bailout in the next year which will mean the country defaults aswell

The country minus the banks is effectively funded for nearly another year. Furthermore, there are no end of examples of countries that actually sovereign defaulted (as opposed to merely refusing to bail out bankrupt banks) and were back in the markets within a matter of months.
The markets have short memories.

Scofflaw

The country minus the banks is effectively funded for nearly another year. Furthermore, there are no end of examples of countries that actually sovereign defaulted (as opposed to merely refusing to bail out bankrupt banks) and were back in the markets within a matter of months.
The markets have short memories.

Can we actually have some of these examples, please? Otherwise, I'm going to have to start calling time on this claim.

cordially,
Scofflaw

AlphaBeagle

Anyone catch the George Soros article....


http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-tells-the-next-irish-government-to-reject-and-repudiate-the-bailout-deal-2010-12

Cavehill Red

Scofflaw wrote: »

Can we actually have some of these examples, please? Otherwise, I'm going to have to start calling time on this claim.

I refer you back to the answer I gave the last time you called me on this:
Spain, sixteen defaults in history. Uruguay and Turkey, four defaults in the 20th century alone. Argentina back in the markets within a year of defaulting.
But for a really contemporary example, you might consider Iceland.
They're still selling bonds, and their yield has fallen from 7% in January to 2% today.

Dob74

Cavehill Red wrote: »

According to Ruairi Quinn (whose brother Lochlann has a banking interest, you might say), Labour will vote in favour of the EU/IMF bailout of billionaires by the Irish taxpayer.

I sincerely hope that this is merely one Quinn spinning for another. I cannot believe that Labour would actually consider doing this. If they do, they've lost my vote forever.

What a load of BS. Why would Labour vote in favour of the Bail out when they are the only party to oppose the Bank Bail out from day one.
FF/FG propaganda, they have been attacking Labour because they both know it was thier Neo Liberal idology that got us in this mess.

Cavehill Red

Dob74 wrote: »

What a load of BS. Why would Labour vote in favour of the Bail out when they are the only party to oppose the Bank Bail out from day one.
FF/FG propaganda, they have been attacking Labour because they both know it was thier Neo Liberal idology that got us in this mess.

Read the link. It's Ruairi Quinn 'propaganda'. Nothing to do with any other party.