Spring 2011 outlook

Min

I like the Spring time, it is like when everything wakes up from the dead of winter, animals and birds having young, trees and plants coming back to life, the days getting longer, warmer temperatures and basic hope for the coming year.

We have people here who give predictions for winter, anyone care to give predictions when Spring will begin or show signs for when it begins?

Speak Now

You know very well that spring time in Ireland means a chance of more snow :pac:

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

I like the Spring time, it is like when everything wakes up from the dead of winter, animals and birds having young, trees and plants coming back to life, the days getting longer, warmer temperatures and basic hope for the coming year.

We have people here who give predictions for winter, anyone care to give predictions when Spring will begin or show signs for when it begins?

The snow gods are going to deliver a snowstorm to the Castlecomer, around about mid March, just when you think it's all over:pac:

snow ghost

Min

The current recent spring weather after the severe cold has been glorious. I mean temperatures staying above freezing day and night and relatively mild, it has made life easier for man and beast.
We really need the Atlantic to be winning more battles against the boring cold weather, it is stuck in a really bad pattern at the moment, especially if we have another very severe cold spell to continue the current dominating pattern this winter. The next cold spell could be telling, the question is, is the worst of the winter over?
Last year (2010) winter lasted into April before we got proper spring weather.
I know one can get wintry weather in spring but we need it to be the exception rather than the norm, not an extended boring wintry pattern.

So lets see if the Atlantic can start to win more battles over the next 6 to 8 weeks and to begin to break up a pattern of weather that has been going on since December 2009. Even last summer we were getting a lot of wind direction from the north and east rather than our prevailing winds from the south west.

nacho libre

i think we are locked into this pattern for the next couple of years at least.
while the best of winter is over for this year in my opinion, i think January and February will still be below average temperature wise with snow from time to time but milder interludes will be more frequent from now on.

Min

Looking at the UK MO website and their forecast for the next month, it seems no major cold is expected. Temperatures around average and increasingly drier.
What farmers want to hear...

If we can get March to play along it should be a good spring, unlike the spring of 2010.

200motels

Of course spring doesn't start untill March so a bit to go yet.

MiNdGaM3

When trying to look ahead to March, just going by winters that had a moderate-strong La Nina (MEI values below -1) beforehand, some of the recent matches are 2008, 2000, 1999 and 1989 (which you can see the reports here http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-bulletin.asp ) it seems they we're generally sunny, mild but with variable rainfall amounts.

When tying in with winters that also had a positive QBO, the matches are for 2000 and 1999. They both had above average temperatures, sunshine close to or above normal, and were generally quite dry.

Though as December has shown, anything can happen and with the -ve PDO now in the mix, this March may well buck the trend!

desolate sun

Min wrote: »

when everything wakes up from the dead of winter,

I don't see winter as being a dead time. A lot of plants and vegetables thrive in cold weather. In fact frost improves their quality.
Look at the delicate snowdrops and crocuses appearing from the 'dead' ground. The frost also kills soil bacteria resulting in more bountiful harvests.

If anything winter makes me think how resilient life is.

Min

desolate sun wrote: »

I don't see winter as being a dead time. A lot of plants and vegetables thrive in cold weather. In fact frost improves their quality.
Look at the delicate snowdrops and crocuses appearing from the 'dead' ground. The frost also kills soil bacteria resulting in more bountiful harvests.

If anything winter makes me think how resilient life is.

My Christmas rose, not a real rose but a Helleborus niger was suppose to flower in December at Christmas time, it is only starting to flower now. It was too cold and there was too much snow, ice and temperatures too low.
Spring last year was very late thanks to winter keeping life under wraps = one of the latest for most plants that need a little heat in the ground to get them growing.
Frost helps the soil by breaking it up through expansion and contraction, some frost is good, we had bad frost in 2010 as it burnt the grass, the snow in November and December thankfully the saved the grass from the -16C temperatures.

Winter with the long dark nights and cold temperatures is depressing, the evenings getting longer now as we head towards spring is nice, even better with no extreme cold.

Pangea

Min wrote: »

Winter with the long dark nights and cold temperatures is depressing

Its a wonderful thing how everyone is different, I love the long dark nights and cold temperatures.
Seeing as Winter ends at the end of February , we may be having some snow charts in this thread in March. :pac:

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Its a wonderful thing how everyone is different, I love the long dark nights and cold temperatures.
Seeing as Winter ends at the end of February , we may be having some snow charts in this thread in March. :pac:

We can only hope senor pangea this la nina follows tradition and ends up bringing some snowy weather towards the end of February and into early March. The current setup looks like it is going to take care of the first two weeks of February at least.

Mobhi1

200motels wrote: »

Of course spring doesn't start untill March so a bit to go yet.

According to the Celtic timetable Spring starts today.

Pangea

Mobhi1 wrote: »

According to the Celtic timetable Spring starts today.

I learned that in School too but the meteorological calendar has it starting in March.

thetonynator

Pangea wrote: »

I learned that in School too but the meteorological calendar has it starting in March.

and rightly so too for ireland, as february is on average only slightly milder than january, and considerably cooler than december.

Min

No signs of the harsh winter returning.

Great to see the grass growing in the fields, just hopes it dries up for March.

ch750536

Had this argument with the OH yesterday. For me spring is when stuff starts to grow. Buds are on trees just now, so there is movement, therefore spring. Remember, all other contries at our latitude really are in winter, its the gulf stream keeping us different, so it is fine to be different.

Elmer Blooker

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

You know very well that spring time in Ireland means a chance of more snow :pac:

How true! Last week, the first week of Feb saw temps of 13/14c.
I'd bet anyone that it wont reach that in the first week of April...... on second thoughts you can throw in the first week of May too!

snowstreams

Some years in April temperatures can get up to nearly 20c.
I hope this years April days are no different, or at least dry.

thetonynator

snowstreams wrote: »

Some years in April temperatures can get up to nearly 20c.
I hope this years April days are no different, or at least dry.

but what was being pointed out was that it wouldn't be seen as unusual to have cooler temps in april than we had this week and especially last week!

Aiel

The stem's of Daffodills are coming up well now in our garden,always a good sign:).
It makes me laugh reading this forum how obsessed people are here with snow.Part of what makes snow so good is that its unique to a certain time of the year,if it was with us all year it would get boring after awhile.So let Spring come,its getting towards the time to move on,let winter go;).We should offer grief counselling here for some members for the sad departure of snowy weather in the next few weeks:p.

Must say I do love spring too. Love the flowers starting to come up. I have buds on my apple tree already

Love all the seasons really. They each bring something special.

gbee

ch750536 wrote: »

Had this argument with the OH yesterday. For me spring is when stuff starts to grow. Buds are on trees just now, so there is movement, therefore spring. Remember, all other contries at our latitude really are in winter, its the gulf stream keeping us different, so it is fine to be different.

There isn't an argument. Ireland follows the equinox which breaks the 'seasons' up equally and mid summer has the sun highest in the sky, mid winter the lowest.

Irish Spring is usually two weeks and three at a stretch and it usually occurs during the Spring months but has been as late as May where it might last only days.

To get an indication of the coming summer, watch the Spring. A short three day Spring with rapid and flush blossoms means a poor Summer. A prolonged lazy Spring means a lazy slow growing season and bumper crops.

Min

A nice week coming, temperatures upto the mid teens in any prolonged sunshine.
For lovers of cold, there will be some frost at night

Speak Now

Lovely forecast for next week (If the sun comes out)

MiNdGaM3

Could be some impressive diurnal ranges too, with temps possibly up to 17C during the day and dipping to around freezing at night.

johngalway

Min wrote: »

For lovers of cold, there will be some frost at night

*sharp intake of breath*

Harsh, but fair :pac:

thetonynator

Lovely weather today, nicest spring day so far this year!!!

pauldry

So far 2011 hasnt seen a lot of the harsh weather of 2010. In fact the only real weather of any note was some heavy rain in February that caused some flooding.

March 2011 has been very quiet and dry with little or nothing in the way of rain, though here in Sligo we have had 33mm though this was after the first 8 days had trace. The rest of March looks like being dry in most parts of Ireland with a lot of warm sunshine at times. Other days will be cooler but these will be near the end of the month. The High Pressure is hanging around in the Atlantic to be of some presence in April too I would think but well just have to wait and see.

Does May count as Spring or Summer? It depends on whether you are Met Eireann or a farmer. Ill count it and I think that most of our Spring rain will fall in May by the law of averages simple due to the fact that there has been little rain in March and April will probably see showers seeing a shortfall that will have to be made up.

Well thats what I think Spring is going to be like. Feel free to disagree.:rolleyes:

Speak Now

Spring FI anyone

mike65

Glorious out there right now, real early morning in summer vibe.

Elmer Blooker

In my opinion spring begins after the equinox which was on Sunday.
What a relief - no more looking at FI charts for easterlies/northerlies that you know will never arrive.

johngalway

This damn snow is killing me, will it ever melt

patneve2

Could be an early taste of summer next week with warm uppers spreading over Ireland from the South. Fingers crossed.

Duiske

patneve2 wrote: »

Could be an early taste of summer next week with warm uppers spreading over Ireland from the South. Fingers crossed.

I was considering starting a thread on that. Next tues/weds/thurs could possibly see the temps touch 20c. A new thread would surely be the kiss of death though, so i'll just wait, watch and hope for a few more days.

mike65

That GFS has changed markedly in the last 24 hours, so I wouldn't hold my breath.

Min

Still looking like a nice warm up next week after an initial cool down.

patneve2

Was interesting to see places like Valentia record the highest temps in the last 'warm spell' (1-2 weeks ago). Slight foehn effect from the Macgillycuddy reeks?? (winds were easterly)