Lenihan chances of losing his seat in the General Election

Dots1982

Hi All

I'm wondering what people think of the possibility that Lenihan might lose his seat in the next general election. In 2007 he topped the poll ahead of Joan Burton and Leo Vadakhar and Joe Higgins lost his seat. I assume these will all be standing in the same constituency again (dublin west) and they are all strong contenders. Would his name give a certain grassroots loyalty or will his record in government finish him.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Varadkar and Burton will probably take two seats.

Third will be a fight between Joe Higgins, Sinn Fein and Lenihan.

As always Labour/Socialists tend to get SF transfers, but doesn't happen the other way around. Joe Higgins could well win it if he gets exposure in the run up to the election.

ArmaniJeanss

Its now a 4seater - (it was under-represented in the last election, and boundary increases have taken in a few extra square kilometres in the airport direction).

I think the extra seat should mean BL retains his status. He polled 32% the last time - even if his vote is decimated to say 12% it might even be enough to get 4th place.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_West_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)#2007_general_election


(One note of caution is there may be a strong candidate from the 'new' areas of the constituency, and FG may decide that Leo can get a running mate elected as well).

Bottle_of_Smoke

In that case I'd say it will be

1. Varadkar
2. Burton
3. Higgins
4. Brian Lenihan or Sinn Fein candidate.

Dots1982

Thanks for that Armani, I didn't know. That changes everything to be honest but I'll keep an eye on it and see if there is any developments regarding candidates.

I basically wanted to know what the feeling was on this for gambling purposes rather than any altrustic purpose.

whippet

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

In that case I'd say it will be

1. Varadkar
2. Burton
3. Higgins
4. Brian Lenihan or Sinn Fein candidate.

I would actually see Burton topping the poll followed by Varadkar.

Dots1982

Lenihan is 4/1 with powers to lose his seat in the next election, I might throw a tenner on it but the price is fair without being too inviting.

Flimbos

I think Labour will have a second candidate... possibly FG too.

Varadkar and Burton to retain their seats, and it will be an interesting contest for the other two.

The Saint

Is he even planning to run? I'd imagine given his personal circumstances it might be unlikely.

LeixlipRed

Higgins will definitely be elected. Both Varadkar and Burton are extremely arrogant characters and I can see Joe topping the poll on a good day followed by those two with Lenihan in 4th.

Bottle_of_Smoke

LeixlipRed wrote: »

Higgins will definitely be elected. Both Varadkar and Burton are extremely arrogant characters and I can see Joe topping the poll on a good day followed by those two with Lenihan in 4th.

I know he used to top the poll there but last time he didnt even get elected.

vibe666

pretty good considering he lost €85 billion down the back of the sofa! :pac:

imme

the chances are high, but you don't know how the sympathy angle will play out.
4 seats to play for, so you have to expect Varadker and Burton to get re elected. Haven't heard a peep out of Joe Higgins since he went to Brussels, maybe he's making noises in Dublin W, I don't know as its not my constituency.
I don't see SF being at the races unless their 4.8% in the last GE can jump to 15% first prefs.

prediction 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 Higgins

Bottle_of_Smoke

imme wrote: »

the chances are high, but you don't know how the sympathy angle will play out.
4 seats to play for, so you have to expect Varadker and Burton to get re elected. Haven't heard a peep out of Joe Higgins since he went to Brussels, maybe he's making noises in Dublin W, I don't know as its not my constituency.
I don't see SF being at the races unless their 4.8% in the last GE can jump to 15% first prefs.

prediction 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 Higgins

True SF had a low 1st pref last time, however could be a huge amount of FF votes up for grabs depending on how Lenihan is percieved there. I think this could be a constituency SF could take if they put someone half charismatic up.

johngalway

imme wrote: »

the sympathy angle will play out.

If he's elected on that, then people are just stupid.

Fair enough, the man is sick. So retire from politics, deal with the illness and return at a later date should he wish to.

I'm not saying BL is making his illness part of his campaign, but if people are voting for him because of it, that's just wrong.

Bottle_of_Smoke

johngalway wrote: »

If he's elected on that, then people are just stupid.

Fair enough, the man is sick. So retire from politics, deal with the illness and return at a later date should he wish to.

I'm not saying BL is making his illness part of his campaign, but if people are voting for him because of it, that's just wrong.

I think it could go wither way.

Aw, poor fella has acancer I'll give him a vote

or

That guy has cancer, he might die so no point voting for him.

ArmaniJeanss

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

True SF had a low 1st pref last time, however could be a huge amount of FF votes up for grabs depending on how Lenihan is percieved there. I think this could be a constituency SF could take if they put someone half charismatic up.

I think SF aim at the same demographic as Joe Higgins so I don't reckon they'll target this a seat to aim for. Also with another strong Left candidate here in Joan Burton I'd suspect SF will have far more winnable seats elsewhere to concentrate their resources in.

I reckon Joe will get a seat, he's in Brussels but the SWP have a lot of people on the ground in the working class areas of the constituency.

It does appear as if Labour are going to run 2, with the second candidate based in the 'new Dublin West', roughly 6000 voters in Swords who were previously Dublin North East (I think). Whether they will actively target two seats by splitting the constituency up (with the risk this entails of getting no seats or the 'wrong one' getting in) is doubtful.

Boring prediction is 1 Varadkar, 2 Higgins, 3 Lenihan, 4 Burton, with the final two positions in reverse if JB runs solo.

NewHillel

Dots1982 wrote: »

I'm wondering what people think of the possibility that Lenihan might lose his seat in the next general election.

I was thinking of moving, temporarily, so that I could vote for Brian. Anyone know of a cheap room until end-March 2011?

Rebelheart

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Varadkar and Burton will probably take two seats.

Third will be a fight between Joe Higgins, Sinn Fein and Lenihan.

As always Labour/Socialists tend to get SF transfers, but doesn't happen the other way around. Joe Higgins could well win it if he gets exposure in the run up to the election.

I'd love to see Joe Higgins win it, if only because of a particularly nasty, class-based remark John "Unionist" Bruton made to Higgins in the Dáil one day. Higgins also did Ireland some service when he satirised Ahern's description of himself as a "socialist" (go to 0.30 and watch Ahern laugh).

Not forgetting in 2003 "Asking the Taoiseach for an answer is like playing handball against a haystack; you hear a dull thud but the ball never comes back to you".

Bottle_of_Smoke

Rebelheart wrote: »

I'd love to see Joe Higgins win it, if only because of a particularly nasty, class-based remark John "Unionist" Bruton made to Higgins in the Dáil one day. Higgins also did Ireland some service when he satirised Ahern's description of himself as a "socialist" (go to 0.30 and watch Ahern laugh).

Not forgetting in 2003 "Asking the Taoiseach for an answer is like playing handball against a haystack; you hear a dull thud but the ball never comes back to you".

Christ that man's a legend.

hotmail.com

Why are people suggesting SF might get a seat in Dublin West?

Not a hope - the SF vote will go to Joe Higgins.

This is perhaps the most predictable constituency in the country:

Burton
Leo
Lenihan
Higgins

Bottle_of_Smoke

hotmail.com wrote: »

Why are people suggesting SF might get a seat in Dublin West?

Not a hope - the SF vote will go to Joe Higgins.

This is perhaps the most predictable constituency in the country:

Burton
Leo
Lenihan
Higgins

As you pointed out there are four seats not one! Sinn Fein have had a surge in popularity and interest recently.

Therefore I think there is a good chance they could compete with lenihan.

hotmail.com

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

As you pointed out there are four seats not one! Sinn Fein have had a surge in popularity and interest recently.

Therefore I think there is a good chance they could compete with lenihan.

They got 4.8% in 2007 in Dublin West. They don't have a base locally in Dublin West, so whilst one opinion poll showed an increase in SF support nationally, it's highly unlikely SF will get a seat in DW. The traditional SF voters are more likely to be Higgins voters in the constituency.

If anything Labour has a chance of getting two seats here, that's if they're running a second candidate.

Liamario

I really can't begin to fathom how anyone would consider voting for any Fianna Fail candidate in the next general election or any election for the foreseeable future.
I know there are people who support their party like a football club ie; no matter how bad they are or what awful things they do, they'll support them no matter what. That thought is scary in itself.
Surely these sheep have some sort of limit to how much crap they can put up with before they make the intelligent decision. Is it only me that thinks you should vote for the policies you believe in before the party.

Bottle_of_Smoke

hotmail.com wrote: »

They got 4.8% in 2007 in Dublin West. They don't have a base locally in Dublin West, so whilst one opinion poll showed an increase in SF support nationally, it's highly unlikely SF will get a seat in DW. The traditional SF voters are more likely to be Higgins voters in the constituency.

If anything Labour has a chance of getting two seats here, that's if they're running a second candidate.

They'll campaign hard/it's a changed constituency this time(boundaries)/lots of lenihan votes up for graps/their national profile.

I don't think it is as easy to predict as looking at the last election

NewHillel

Liamario wrote: »

I really can't begin to fathom how anyone would consider voting for any Fianna Fail candidate in the next general election or any election for the foreseeable future.
I know there are people who support their party like a football club ie; no matter how bad they are or what awful things they do, they'll support them no matter what. That thought is scary in itself.
Surely these sheep have some sort of limit to how much crap they can put up with before they make the intelligent decision. Is it only me that thinks you should vote for the policies you believe in before the party.

And what policies might that be, exactly? Whatever party gets in is now in the straitjacket of the MOU agreed with the EU/IMU.

I can't see Enda providing any great leadership and Gilmore is better at diagnosing the problem than coming up with solutions. Maybe now is the time for a government of national unity?

Liamario

I'm speaking generally regarding policies. People shouldn't vote for a party like a football team. Their vote should be given to whom they think is the right person for the job, regardless of the party name.

cazzak79

whether brian is going to run or retire due to his health or whatever is really upto him and his family i think despite his health issues the last year i think his been working pretty hard whether its been good or bad

Rebelheart

hotmail.com wrote: »

Why are people suggesting SF might get a seat in Dublin West?

Not a hope - the SF vote will go to Joe Higgins.

This is perhaps the most predictable constituency in the country:

Burton
Leo
Lenihan
Higgins

It may be just happening in the circles I hang around in but here the most unlikely people are saying "Who else can you vote for but Sinn Féin?", "They're the only party opposing this" and sentiments to that effect. Sinn Féin is on the up. There's no doubt about that. If Adams brushes up his knowledge of economic issues he could completely reverse his (to be honest) embarrassing performance in the 2007 election debate.

I call it:

1. Higgins (people are shít-faced angry and no better man in all 32 counties of Ireland)

2. Burton (people are shít-faced angry and Burton is sufficiently to the left of the establishment to get this vote, and also get the female vote)

3) Varadkar (because he's both conservative, and like Burton eloquent, and this will appeal to conservative voters who don't want change, but who now also don't want Fianna Fáil)

4) Sinn Féin (probable) or Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin: received 4.8% in the 2007 election; Burton was the last elected, on 17.1%. Importantly, however, Sinn Féin received 8% in 2002, and Burton was elected on 12.7%. The Sinn Féin challenge, therefore, is not insurmountable. If Higgins gets in first, they can close the gap on Burton as Higgins will have a huge protest vote and that, despite labour votes generally not transferring, will transfer to Sinn Féin. Their position will be greatly strengthened if:
1) Sinn Féin at national level can successfully attack Fianna Fáil, and particularly Lenihan's policies, and be seen to attack it at every level. Somethin high profile and consistent would be perfect. Also, pump the money into an anti-Lenihan policy (not anti-Lenihan) campaign
2) Pick a strong candidate or maybe even parachute somebody. The 2007 candidate, Felix Gallagher, has resigned. Who is now the Sinn Féin candidate? They don't seem to be putting the party might and resources into winning this seat, despite the removal of Lenihan being very symbolic.

Fianna Fáil: If Sinn Féin can't get their act together, Lenihan could get the sympathy vote out. His illness, although nobody seems to be aware of this, has at worst "stabilised" since last September. Nevertheless, it's probable that out of exhaustion and the toll this has taken on his family he will not run in the 2011 election, retire on a massive pension, and this decision will be assumed to be on health grounds. If so, Sinn Féin should get the seat, if the party put the resources into it.

hotmail.com

cazzak79 wrote: »

whether brian is going to run or retire due to his health or whatever is really upto him and his family i think despite his health issues the last year i think his been working pretty hard whether its been good or bad

Right that's great, someone has to mention his health.

Now if you bothered to read through the posts and other threads, you would see that he has said that he will be running in the next election.

hotmail.com

Rebelheart wrote: »

It may be just happening in the circles I hang around in but here the most unlikely people are saying "Who else can you vote for but Sinn Féin?", "They're the only party opposing this" and sentiments to that effect. Sinn Féin is on the up. There's no doubt about that. If Adams brushes up his knowledge of economic issues he could completely reverse his (to be honest) embarrassing performance in the 2007 election debate.

I call it:

1. Higgins (people are shít-faced angry and no better man in all 32 counties of Ireland)

2. Burton (people are shít-faced angry and Burton is sufficiently to the left of the establishment to get this vote, and also get the female vote)

3) Varadkar (because he's both conservative, and like Burton eloquent, and this will appeal to conservative voters who don't want change, but who now also don't want Fianna Fáil)

4) Sinn Féin (probable) or Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin: received 4.8% in the 2007 election; Burton was the last elected, on 17.1%. Importantly, however, Sinn Féin received 8% in 2002, and Burton was elected on 12.7%. The Sinn Féin challenge, therefore, is not insurmountable. If Higgins gets in first, they can close the gap on Burton as Higgins will have a huge protest vote and that, despite labour votes generally not transferring, will transfer to Sinn Féin. Their position will be greatly strengthened if:
1) Sinn Féin at national level can successfully attack Fianna Fáil, and particularly Lenihan's policies, and be seen to attack it at every level. Somethin high profile and consistent would be perfect. Also, pump the money into an anti-Lenihan policy (not anti-Lenihan) campaign
2) Pick a strong candidate or maybe even parachute somebody. The 2007 candidate, Felix Gallagher, has resigned. Who is now the Sinn Féin candidate? They don't seem to be putting the party might and resources into winning this seat, despite the removal of Lenihan being very symbolic.

Fianna Fáil: If Sinn Féin can't get their act together, Lenihan could get the sympathy vote out. His illness, although nobody seems to be aware of this, has at worst "stabilised" since last September. Nevertheless, it's probable that out of exhaustion and the toll this has taken on his family he will not run in the 2011 election, retire on a massive pension, and this decision will be assumed to be on health grounds. If so, Sinn Féin should get the seat, if the party put the resources into it.

I don't think you understand the constituency - Lenihan gets his vote from the Castleknock area. So Lenihan voters are not likely to switch allegiance to SF. Labour's Joan Burton will pick up many of the disillusioned Lenihan supporters.

The SF traditional voters may come from the Mulhudart, Corduff, Ladyswell end of the constituency, but because this is the base of Joe Higgins, SF won't get a look in.

SF will improve their percentage share of the vote, but getting elected here is highly unlikely.

Bottle_of_Smoke

hotmail.com wrote: »

I don't think you understand the constituency - Lenihan gets his vote from the Castleknock area. So Lenihan voters are not likely to switch allegiance to SF. Labour's Joan Burton will pick up many of the disillusioned Lenihan supporters.

The SF traditional voters may come from the Mulhudart, Corduff, Ladyswell end of the constituency, but because this is the base of Joe Higgins, SF won't get a look in.

SF will improve their percentage share of the vote, but getting elected here is highly unlikely.

It all depends on what way Lenihan voters go. Probably toward FG/Labour and Higgins I'd suspect.

However, Sinn Fein have received a lot of national interest and support recently due to Pearse Doherty being articulate and forcing the election, as well as big Jarry entering Irish politics. They will work hard on the ground. If Joe higgins is in the public eye he could well win on a surplus, with transfers going to Sinn Fein.

The constituency is also changing, would be interesting to see who the new voters tended to go for in previous elections.