Cocoa

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Hi all,

I've been trading Cocoa with relative success for the past week or so with the presidential dispute in the Ivory Coast.

Just wondering if anyone else has been at the same? Any opinions on how that situation is going to pan out or any good sources to track the news (apart from reuters and bloomberg!).

ixus

Fair play on being in there early. I think it may be done to the upside unless conflict breaks out. The big players were in way before the elections. Think of that guy who bought up 7% of world supply a few months ago.

Plenty of jumping on the bandwagon on Monday. Has been less volatile since then. Everyone waiting to see how this pans out. Could go hard either way. No harm in taking some profit off the table. You may get funds/technical players involved based on the moving averages and commodities trends now too.

As for sources, you won't beat the ones you mentioned without paying for it. bbc newsite is worth keeping an eye on too.

ixus

ixus wrote: »

I think it may be done to the upside unless conflict breaks out. ...

Plenty of jumping on the bandwagon on Monday. Has been less volatile since then. Everyone waiting to see how this pans out. Could go hard either way. No harm in taking some profit off the table. ....

A fair bit of profit taking on Friday. Did you take some off? Keep an eye on actions over the weekend. Has been quiet so far. There may be a peaceful resolution but then again, it is Africa...

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Thanks for the comments Ixus!

The fates aligned for me over the summer, i visited a chocolate museum in Biarritz that listed the top cocoa producers in the world! Normally i stick to equities and a bit of fx, but when i saw the election tension, the cocoa thing clicked.

Went long last week until Tuesday when the turn started in proper, gave back about 7% and then just went with the momentum in small lots short.

My technical analysis isn't what it should be, but when politics are involved i think it goes out the window a bit.

I'd agree with you about the players coming into the market, with no news developments or any real fundamental changes (or so it seemed) the sell off began. I got news from a friend with Bloomberg that the cocoa exports continued with supplies from the north of the country only being slightly delayed, so then i figured traders were just focusing on the bottom line exports.

I took most of the profit up and smaller lots going down but i'm not understanding the current market movements and think i'll lower my exposure way down until any concrete news comes out. Fairly speculative investment on my behalf and not my preferred investment style but follow the opportunities i suppose!

Interesting situation to monitor, thanks for your input!

ixus

Might be worth holding onto what longs you've got left. According to bbc website, Ggabo's army are surrounding the hotel holding up the other lad (name escapes me). Also, EU sanctions in play. Quiet enough today but could be some action during the week.

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Small jump this morning but hasn't really got going.

Decent article here points to cocoa still leaving the country in past times of strife.

Though the last line regarding asia and i'd imagine more widely, emerging markets, makes me think a longer term investment could be worthwhile.