Can we go back on an IMF/EU deal??

wylo

Well its looking like Sunday is the day of reckoning.
I find it highly frustrating that we dont have a clue whats going on in the negotiations or its not being put to the dail first (or is it?)

But the one good thing I am thinking out of this is the fact that its a contingency fund. At least that bides us some time.
My question: When there is a new government in power in January , or possibly earlier can they back out of the deal and renegotiate?

Even at a low interest rate this deal will have our country in bits for years and years to come. 2 years ago, this was an interesting topic for me, albeit worrying, then the closer we got to this point the more worried I got but still enjoyed discussing it rather than panic etc. now im seriously getting angry about my future, my friends futures and all our kids futures.
There will be no windows of opportunity for us bar emigration.

Are they honestly having a laugh when they say we will grow by 2.75% each year? I can tell you now, this isnt going to be a 4 year plan, itll be a 10 year plan by the time we really see how our exchequer starts looking and this bailout will do nothing but stretch out the stagnant economy.

Id prefer us live in absolute hell for 6 months than have no hope or nothing to look forward to for this country for another 20 or 30 years.

cc-offe

I would be very interested to know this too, does anyone know?

later12

How do you mean go back on it?

We will need IMF-EU funding, if not now, then in 2011; that is pretty much universally accepted fact by now. We cannot have this funding for nothing.

The details can be re-negotiated, yes, as can repayment. However, the bailout, and its effect on our financial standing, cannot be undone.

cc-offe

If it's agreed this sunday and then we decide to just default and we haven't actually received the money yet then can we go back on it and tell them we're not taking it?

later12

cc-offe wrote: »

If it's agreed this sunday and then we decide to just default and we haven't actually received the money yet then can we go back on it and tell them we're not taking it?

The term 'decide to just default' is quite the oxymoron, really. If we decide to default, and if we turn away the IMF, then with what, exactly are we going to run the country, magic beans?

cc-offe

Yea we'll run it with magic beans, then when they run out hopefully we could use the pension fund,
The question is if we can refuse or go back on the IMF deal once it's agreed?

later12

cc-offe wrote: »

Yea we'll run it with magic beans, then when they run out hopefully we could use the pension fund,

About 30 billion short there,and that's just for day to day spending.

The question is if we can refuse or go back on the IMF deal once it's agreed?

If we give the money back and run on magic beans, yes.

Otherwise, we can renegotiate the details and the conditionality to a small degree, but we will still need a bailout and we will still need to pay it back.

cc-offe

We're about 30 billion short depending on when we need the money to last us until.

Ok but if we haven't actually received any of the IMF money then we can't be forced into taking it can we?

later12

cc-offe wrote: »

We're about 30 billion short depending on when we need the money to last us until.

Huh? It would last a few months. Then what?

Ok but if we haven't actually received any of the IMF money then we can't be forced into taking it can we?

Just to clear this up, we're asking for this money, it is not being forced upon us. It's probably sooner than we would have liked to have taken it, but we need it nevertheless.

cc-offe

There's a 101 threads going at the moment about what happens if we default etc. This was a thread asking can we go back on the IMF deal, I'm really not interested in being convinced as to why we should accept the deal.

The goverment are the ones asking for the money, the people haven't had a chance to decide what they want.

Dirk Gently

edit: Just read your post above re: defaulting and your specific renegotiation question. My reply was basically about defaulting.

later12

cc-offe wrote: »

I'm really not interested in being convinced as to why we should accept the deal.

Ok, I'm not really interested in convincing you. Can i sell you some magic beans, though? They're for a very good price and they're going to be worth a fortune.

thetonynator

Saying on rte 9 news that interest rate likely to be 7%??? We should be going back on it!!!

later12

clown bag wrote: »

unless someone has a load of missiles aimed at our cities in the event that we default then yes, we can pretty much do as we please when we please.

It wont be pretty but yes we can choose to stop re-paying at any stage.
and in such a case it wouldn't be magic beans, it would be punts we'd be running the country with.

In short, its up to the Irish Government at any given time whether or not to say thanks but were not paying any more instalments, tough ****. It wont be a negotiation though, just a simple we're not paying, good luck. It's whether we want to plunge the country into a situation where we're the kid in the corner. Will there come a point where that situation is preferable to our current situation?

haha. Youre joking right? And what happens when the money runs out in the PIGS nations? Where does future revenue come from?

First of all, it isn't even that likely that Spain will need a bailout. That leaves Greece, Ireland and Portugal depending on one another. Fantastic!:eek:

It's at times like this i'm glad it's only FF running this country.

sollar

Yeah 6.7% how on earth can fianna fail let that go through. Its obscene.

cc-offe

later10 wrote: »

Ok, I'm not really interested in convincing you. Can i sell you some magic beans, though? They're for a very good price and they're going to be worth a fortune.

Yeah it's a deal, there's no tax so far on magic beans as far as I know.

Anita Blow

7% is an absolute joke. How is that helpful?

later12

Who said 6.7 - 7% and based on what source? link?

Anita Blow

RTE News reporting 6.7%

baldbear

6.7% isn't possible and everyone knows it. Default or the bond holders may do a deal. Crazy figure.

Absurdum

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1126/economy_bailout.html

The interest rate to be charged on the European Unions/International Monetary Fund package is likely to be 6.7%
This compares to an average borrowing rate of 4.5% on funds raised by the NTMA over the past two years, and is significantly higher than the 5.2% rate charged to Greece for its separate bailout fund.
The Government's four year plan assumes that by 2014, interest payments will have increased from €2.5 billion to €8.4 billion a year - around one fifth of all tax revenue.
These figures do not include any borrowing that may be made for extra capital for the banks.

:eek:

themadchef

later10 wrote: »

Who said 6.7 - 7% and based on what source? link?

On RTE news now. Obscene rate.

later12

Obscene, yes. It's almost suicidal. i guess they have taken into account our inevitable bondholder haircuts, but still, that's unbelievably high.

cc-offe

clown bag wrote: »

edit: Just read your post above re: defaulting and your specific renegotiation question. My reply was basically about defaulting.

Your original post was very helpful thanks, I only made a reference to the original question as I didn't want others trying to convince me that we need the IMF deal because I would rather we defaulted to be honest!

Butch Cassidy

We're sunk

sollar

Bailout my arse... its a bailout in the same way as a loan shark bails out a lone parent with an extortionate christmas loan.

Dirk Gently

later10 wrote: »

haha. Youre joking right? And what happens when the money runs out in the PIGS nations? Where does future revenue come from?

First of all, it isn't even that likely that Spain will need a bailout. That leaves Greece, Ireland and Portugal depending on one another. Fantastic!:eek:

It's at times like this i'm glad it's only FF running this country.

I was replying to what a default might look like (mistakenly after I re-read that the poster was asking about agreed re-negotiations)

Obviously I was referring to starting from scratch, debt free in local currency. Such countries wouldn't get lends so would obviously need to return surpluses each year. I didn't recommend it, I was creating a picture of what it might look like and asking if there would come a point where even that was the lesser of two evils. 6.7% does make you think twice.

My name is URL

What real consequences would arise if Ireland defaulted now? Spain are going to need a bailout, it's seeming more likely every day. When they 'apply' for it, will it push up our own interest rate? Is this whole bailout thing not suspiciously close to a mistake made by the banks here.. ie, lending to those who cannot realistically meet repayment obligations in the long-term?

If we defaulted now, we could not borrow above our weight. And so would be hard pressed to make the same mistakes again. Why is a bail-out such a better idea?

baldbear

Could this be the end of the Euro? Vote yes to Lisbon for Jobs and Prosperity, really worked out well.

Anita Blow

I don't think defaulting now would be an option. It'd be suicidal.
Although we're financed till the middle of 2011, admitting that we can't repay debts would close off the bond markets and more importantly, would most likely spark a big run on the banks as people realise the bank guarantee wouldn't be worth anything in a default.

Will I Amnt

Sorry if it was posted already,at least someone is speaking out and not just bending over and taking everything thrown at us.

themadchef

My name is URL wrote: »

What real consequences would arise if Ireland defaulted now? Spain are going to need a bailout, it's seeming more likely every day. When they 'apply' for it, will it push up our own interest rate? Is this whole bailout thing not suspiciously close to the mistakes made by the banks here.. ie, lending to those who cannot realistically meet repayment obligations in the long-term?

If we defaulted now, we could not borrow above our weight. And so would be hard pressed to make the same mistakes again. Why is a bail-out such a better idea?

I dont think it is a better idea.

In simple terms, we are screwed. Frying pan, fire. Would ya like to go by hanging or shooting? We can sit here and question it all but at the end of the day it will be the decision of a few. A few who may or may not have our best interests at heart.

We are powerless to stop this machine, at least that's how i feel. Someone tell me im wrong.

sollar

Anita Blow wrote: »

I don't think defaulting now would be an option. It'd be suicidal.
Although we're financed till the middle of 2011, admitting that we can't repay debts would close off the bond markets and more importantly, would most likely spark a big run on the banks as people realise the bank guarantee wouldn't be worth anything in a default.

What this shows is that these people in the EU are not our friends. They are taking the piss. We have tried with austerity but we still have to pay more than feckless greece. I'm so angry at that :mad:

Juwwi

I wonder how much of the tax payers money is being used to pay our negotiators to stamp a good deal.

What a shower of useless ar5e holes.

Koloman

I really hope this is just a bargaining position from the EU. Even 5% is stretching it too far but 6.7% is absolutely crazy!