Is mass emigration 100% negative for our economy?

wylo

Sorry if this has been discussed before but searching the word emigration in this forum is completely futile.

Just wondering is there any pros to be got out of mass emigration. Im not for one minute suggesting its a good thing, but just wondering is it 100% bad or could there be benefits to be taken from it? Im looking for people to pick holes in the arguments below:

1. The obvious one, unemployment reduced, more spots (the few there are) for people hanging around.

2. A long term one, all the people qualifying and leaving now will hopefully go on to gain alot of experience, some will come back when things arent a complete disaster for the very reason that people often want to come home. This gives us an experienced work force in the far future as opposed to a bunch of people with degrees that will either have 10 years experience in tesco or years and years on the dole.

3. It will hasten the process of bringing house prices back to their true value, this is more of a personal thing for me where I truly believe things wont nearly pick up until this has happened.

4. An unlikely one, and probably thinking a bit too old fashioned here but possibly a small flow of money coming into the country and being spent here from people sending money home. Id prefer this over that same person being home and being on the dole.

edit: one last point 5. Less people in the country means less strain on the public service, as in a simple reduction in population will mean the likes of nurses, guards, teachers wont have the same strain put on them.

amacachi

In terms of the financial situation of the state it's pretty much all bad because it'll be the wealth generators leaving more than those who receive most money from the state.

wylo

amacachi wrote: »

In terms of the financial situation of the state it's pretty much all bad because it'll be the wealth generators leaving more than those who receive most money from the state.

But will it though? Are you saying that its the people with jobs who are paying tax will be the ones that are leaving, I genuinely think it will be the complete opposite. Or are you saying its the people with the ideas and education that would have otherwise created jobs and business here will be gone?
I personally think that those opportunities wont be there , and as a result the wealth generators simply wont be wealth generators if they hang around this country.

amacachi

wylo wrote: »

But will it though? Are you saying that its the people with jobs who are paying tax will be the ones that are leaving, I genuinely think it will be the complete opposite. Or are you saying its the people with the ideas and education that would have otherwise created jobs and business here will be gone?
I personally think that those opportunities wont be there , and as a result the wealth generators simply wont be wealth generators if they hang around this country.

People leaving college having drained the state will leave soon after, people who want to work will leave, pensioners will stay. The proportion of people leaving will be heavy on the side of wealth generators. While in the short-term it means lower dole payments in the medium term it means a higher proportion of the population being dependent on the state.

Oasis_Dublin

It will look good in the short run for the government as expenditure falls, as well as unemployment. I don't want to leave this country though and the political elite can f*ck off if they think I'll just leave the country. Dole them out of it for as long as I can

Sand

Yes, its 100% negative. It reduces Irelands human capital. It also means every penny spent on the education of a person from the age of 5 to 18 is utterly wasted, a subsidy to some other economy where that person will generate wealth, instead of generating it in Ireland.

We dont need to rely on emigration to resolve our problems: If we are brave enough when tacking the unions and the entrenched interests that feed of the states revenue (look at the NAMA "advisors" that have been hired) then we can solve the unemployment problem by creating the space of new businesses to start up and hire people at competitive rates.

Theres an old essential myth about Ireland not being big enough for everyone to live here that Brian Lenihans father infamously claimed. What Lenihan meant was that to provide a vibrant economy that could create wealth and jobs would mean the insiders would have to remove their dead hands from the throats and pockets of the Irish people. They didnt want to do that then, and they dont want to do that now. We dont have to repeat the same mistake.

Re your points:

1 - This brings to mind the old 1980s joke about Thatchers solution to unemployment which involved pushing tens of thousands of people off the Cliffs of Dover each week. My own improved idea is that we should sell the unemployed into slavery abroad so that the state gets back some of its investment in their education.

2 - I dont have to emigrate thankfully (yet anyway...), but Id imagine that if someone was forced to emigrate now and was somehow expected to return to gift us with their experience and skills earned elsewhere theyd tell us to rev up and f0ck off. Certainly I would. Id feel a lot more loyal to whatever country had opened its doors, as opposed to a country that had wished me to stop hanging about the place. I can only imagine how the people who fled in the 80s and 90s feel after coming back in the 2000s to buy a wildly overpriced shoebox 10 miles from amenities and being trapped in negative equity. I dont think future waves of emigrants will make the same mistake of returning.

3 - House prices are going to fall to their true level regardless, which is determined demand vs. supply. Supply is high, demand is low.

4 - See point 2. If a person was forced out of the country, Id doubt they would send back the steam of their piss.

delonglad

wylo wrote: »

But will it though? Are you saying that its the people with jobs who are paying tax will be the ones that are leaving, I genuinely think it will be the complete opposite. Or are you saying its the people with the ideas and education that would have otherwise created jobs and business here will be gone?
I personally think that those opportunities wont be there , and as a result the wealth generators simply wont be wealth generators if they hang around this country.

I left because I had no opportunities in my area of education within Ireland and I had no alternative. Within finishing college I was out of the country in 3 months.

On your first point, alot of graduates are on the dole so it would be a quick solution but these are not the ones causing the bulk of the problem with the social bill. There are too many allowances given out without proper justification.

On your second point i'd love to return in ten years with a wealth of experience to use but we'll need some drastic changes to get the country to attract more big companies or invest in creating its own

As regards to your 4th point I had planned to transfer money home every month but just seeing how much the banks are in trouble I am reluctant to do so, this i imagine is the case of many others.

I think you will see mass exodus of young Irish graduates in January, all my mates are sticking it out on the dole with that as their deadline for giving up looking for a job and time to pack their bags. Its a sad time for Ireland and some people will say we're traitors for leaving and turning our back on our country but we have no alternative. We need to create a life for ourselves and we can't be doing that while trying to pick up the pieces of a government who has been in power since before many of us could vote and when we could it was during college or exam time. We need experience and we need to earn a living not be a drain on the Irish economy.

TheUsual

wylo wrote: »

Im looking for people to pick holes in the arguments below:
1. The obvious one, unemployment reduced, more spots (the few there are) for people hanging around.

Unemployment payouts reduced yes, but also less money in the economy from these people who leave. No tax, petrol, shopping or children.
Less people means less work for a lot of companies so I don't think it means that jobs would appear all of a sudden.

wylo wrote: »

2. A long term one, all the people qualifying and leaving now will hopefully go on to gain alot of experience, some will come back when things arent a complete disaster for the very reason that people often want to come home. This gives us an experienced work force in the far future

Some will come back of course - so yes in the long term a good thing.

wylo wrote: »

3. It will hasten the process of bringing house prices back to their true value, this is more of a personal thing for me where I truly believe things wont nearly pick up until this has happened.

This would be a very good thing to happen but rents have not fallen in the bigger cities and towns. Landlords and banks still have to pay their 350,000 Euro mortgages, so this will take ages to work out if ever. At the moment young couples are renting instead of buying, and students are keeping the rents artificially high compared to the real value of a house in Ireland (100,000 to 150,000 Euro).

wylo wrote: »

4. An unlikely one, and probably thinking a bit too old fashioned here but possibly a small flow of money coming into the country and being spent here from people sending money home. Id prefer this over that same person being home and being on the dole.

Maybe good for pensioner parents but hard to know how much.

wylo wrote: »

5. Less people in the country means less strain on the public service, as in a simple reduction in population will mean the likes of nurses, guards, teachers wont have the same strain put on them.

See they need the same amount of civil servants that they had during the boom years (as they cannot be fired). So less people, crime and kids does not mean less staff costs and pensions in the civil service.

Amhran Nua

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

It will look good in the short run for the government

I cannot conceive of a world where the flower of a nation's youth being forced to go abroad for work can look good for the government of that nation.

Sleepy

TheUsual wrote: »

students are keeping the rents artificially high compared to the real value of a house in Ireland (100,000 to 150,000 Euro).

Surely you mean rental allowance rather than students? The government is propping up the rental market more than any other single factor.

gurramok

Basically less consumers there is, there is less consumption and that hits profits of companies who provide the jobs. Remember the 80's, its happening all over again. Suppose people still having kids, there is still hope in 10/20 yrs time that there will be job opportunies for them so emigration will be reversed.

So yes, we are and will be experiencing a lost generation.

Bullseye1

Yes. IMO the population if Ireland needs to be at least double what it is now to create a sustainable internal Market.

up for anything

Sand wrote: »

YI can only imagine how the people who fled in the 80s and 90s feel after coming back in the 2000s to buy a wildly overpriced shoebox 10 miles from amenities and being trapped in negative equity.

Angry, bitter, sad, foolish, stupid. If I'd stayed away I would have owned my overpriced shoebox in a nice part of London in two years.

I wonder why RTE isn't filming the exodus at the airports and ferry terminals, and the wakes being held in homes up and down the country. Is it because we've become inured to pain of people having to leave their country not because they want to but because it is necessary.

COYW

wylo wrote: »

But will it though? Are you saying that its the people with jobs who are paying tax will be the ones that are leaving, I genuinely think it will be the complete opposite.

Well, I can only say that the opposite is true from my experience. Everyone that I know who has left is university educated and all bar one were in full time or contract employment. The other person had recently finished up a contract and had recruitment agencies on to her about interviewing for new jobs.

dan_d

Emigration is not 100% bad in normal times, but as an economic policy in a recession, it's awful.

As an island it's good for people to go abroad, see other places and experience different ways of doing business.We don't have the luxury of sharing borders the way they do in Europe (they mightn't consider it a luxury!)

Of course, that's assuming they come back - or they can come back.It's one thing to go abroad because you choose to...it's a whole other thing to go abroad because you have to. I have to agree with delonglad....I'm not a grad, but my deadline is April.I'll be...9 months unemployed then. And that's more than enough for anyone.It would be Jan, except for a family event.

One thing we do better than anyone is emigration. Which is a paradox in itself. Taken against the background of what we have had for the last 10 years, it's a complete and total disgrace that we are once again, saying goodbye to a generation of Irish people.

cavedave

In my opinion mass emigration out of Ireland is terrible. Not just on a human level of seeing my friends and family leave but on an economic level.

I believe we should allow into Ireland one million third world immigrants.

This would
1. Reduce labour costs for semi skilled work
2. Increase demand for property
3. Spread the national debt over more people

You can allow people in with authoritarian rules about deporting those who break rules. Ireland with these rules would be better than their current situation.
Allowing in immigrants when we have 13% unemployment is counterintuitive but our builders are only going to work here again when more people demand houses etc. Also these million workers will need Irish people fluent in English to supervise them and sell the products they produce

There is a good podcast dealing with most of the objections to immigration here

danbohan

up for anything wrote: »

Angry, bitter, sad, foolish, stupid. If I'd stayed away I would have owned my overpriced shoebox in a nice part of London in two years.

I wonder why RTE isn't filming the exodus at the airports and ferry terminals, and the wakes being held in homes up and down the country. Is it because we've become inured to pain of people having to leave their country not because they want to but because it is necessary.

rte is a state controlled tool as they showed this week again , goverment will always cover up the true level of their failures ie emigration etc , they did it in mid 80s when 100s thousands left

maninasia

Amhran Nua wrote: »

I cannot conceive of a world where the flower of a nation's youth being forced to go abroad for work can look good for the government of that nation.

Agreed, but it's been openly admitted by Cowen/Lenihan and they have factored it into their budget (100,000 emigrants), while not celebrating it they will be glad it is happening to lower the SW bill.

professore

cavedave wrote: »

In my opinion mass emigration out of Ireland is terrible. Not just on a human level of seeing my friends and family leave but on an economic level.

I believe we should allow into Ireland one million third world immigrants.

This would
1. Reduce labour costs for semi skilled work
2. Increase demand for property
3. Spread the national debt over more people

You can allow people in with authoritarian rules about deporting those who break rules. Ireland with these rules would be better than their current situation.
Allowing in immigrants when we have 13% unemployment is counterintuitive but our builders are only going to work here again when more people demand houses etc. Also these million workers will need Irish people fluent in English to supervise them and sell the products they produce

There is a good podcast dealing with most of the objections to immigration here

I agree with this but we should pick and choose who we let in so we have a good mix of nationalities, skills and social classes, but people most of all who have a track record of hard work. Offer them a free low rent house from NAMA. I really believe this would solve our problems in a short time.

cavedave

professore

I agree with this but we should pick and choose who we let in so we have a good mix of nationalities, skills and social classes, but people most of all who have a track record of hard work. Offer them a free house from NAMA. I really believe this would solve our problems in a short time.

You could be highly selective. and have fairly draconian rules about deporting people who misbehaved. Generally people are in favour of high skilled immigration I believe a large number of low skilled people from many different countries would be even more beneficial as they are the ones who need help the most and they will have low wage rates and thus drop the costs in our economy.

Oasis_Dublin

Amhran Nua wrote: »

I cannot conceive of a world where the flower of a nation's youth being forced to go abroad for work can look good for the government of that nation.

The political elite don't really care about the youth of this country though. All the politicians care about is their own back sides. Brian Lenihan Snr once said, and I quote, "We can't all live on a small island." This is the kind of disgusting mentality that the political elite have. You can bet your ass that Brian Lenihan would not be volunteering his children to be the first in the emigration queue (as this country has learned to its detriment). So perhaps me saying that it will "look good" needs some explanation; the government will put spin on the emigration figures to make it appear that unemployment is falling. When they are questioned on the idea that emigration, which they have caused, might be the reason for the fall in unemployment, they will claim that they don't "understand the premise" of the question and scurry off to some Ard Fheis, where they will drink tax payers money!

George Orwell 1982

Its nowhere near as easy to emigrate now as it was in the 80's. With austerity in the UK and controls in australia, canada and US its way more difficult. Is there any official figures on the emigration rate?

keithclancy

George Orwell 1982 wrote: »

Its nowhere near as easy to emigrate now as it was in the 80's. With austerity in the UK and controls in australia, canada and US its way more difficult. Is there any official figures on the emigration rate?

?!?!? ... You can get a Ryanair flight and work anywhere in the EU without an Visa or Work Permit... how is it harder ?

Sand

All the countries he mentioned have one thing in common with Ireland, that plays an immense role in labour mobility and the lackthereof within the EU - they all speak English.

The EU has poor labour mobility, and the language barriers contribute to it.

Amhran Nua

George Orwell 1982 wrote: »

Is there any official figures on the emigration rate?

The BBC has an article with some figures, along with more than a touch of schadenfreude and a couple of mentions of disloyalty against the nazis...

noxqs

The ones leaving are usually young and educated.

The ones who will be left sitting on the dole will be the scumbags and the women I saw earlier doing their shopping in their fecking pyjamases.

Sadly young and educated people are a brain drain on ireland, that has a hidden cost of billions. Ireland is the only country in Europe that has such a long history or even tradition of sending their young and able abroad rather than making programmes to keep them. Insanity.

HxGH

By leaving the country we employ those who help us get out of here!
(e.g. - pilots and air hostesses)

azureart

Wow, how do I begin, with your statement, except to say its of its times.

Again, and again, we all must leave, some never to return, some never considered worthy of returning, but of course that is just of the soul of the Irish again, and again being asked to leave their home. How long must this be, leaving, this leaving that you speak of so eloquently in your economic discussion. 100 percent, a great value you place on what people like never to have to do, leave their country. Here is a little fact, recently they did an article on man in Woodside New York, who was from Mayo, came to New York 50 years ago, he was found in studio apartment after being dead for 1 week, never to return.....never to be remembered....could not go home because who would welcome him, no one knew who he was when they found him either. This man left like people have always had to leave by force, a force that that they did not chose and its not invisible anymore. You can only know the truth about being asked to leave by reading, by speaking with people that maybe dont read the paper all the time, or watch RTE. THere are answers out there, but they do not come from what you are told to listen to, or what is necessarily put in front of you.

Is this all really about Money....all of you know its not, its really about something much deeper, and really your discussion of emigrating, and for those that are or are considering, you know deep in your heart, its about something else. Dont you get the feeling that your soul is being washed by the devil, you have lost your light....because you dont know what that light is anymore.
What about those that do chose to return, what about those who chose to never leave, what about those who just remain forgotten once they are gone. The youth leave this country for something much deeper than jobs, you leave because you will not be recognized for your growth in your self, for your growth in your hope for a future. Sadly, I am not sure hope has ever been on the agenda. Maybe the youth of this country have an instinct they chose not to pay attention too, which their parents taught them not to look at, and that is for the first time ever its about something else, its about saving where you come from. You run away, you have failed, you have failed because you will never get back what is here, and I can surely tell you, when you leave you never, ever return the same way again, and you will look at your home in different way forever. Ireland is forever changed on some dynamic levels already, but there is much worth saving and preserving, dont leave without really looking at the whole picture. Leaving is not the answer.

Maybe you dont want to leave and you feel pushed to leave, like there is no choice, but what choice are you thinking, one for only yourself. I know this is quite a new concept for those that are quite young, to consider on other people's behalf, you have not been taught about the wisdom of your elders, and I do not speak of politicians here, I speak of the ones that are outside that, and chose to remain so. Where does your knowledge come from, TV, the newspaper... If you have just been in college and claim to have such a great education, why can you not do for your country what you have been so well educated for, a great education understands more than just its own occupation. We live in times that demand you know more than just your own island, your own way of surviving. Why will you not see what is here, or is it too much, the truth is the youth leave because they have no leadership, they have no great example to follow, and include parent too. These are times where everyone must come together, NOW, or else all will be lost. What reason do you need to fight for your country, why is this such a foreign concept to so many people, and why are so many people scared of defending what is already belongs to them. Its your home, its your street, it your city, its your nation, its belongs to you, it always has, WHAT LAW, and I am not stating Anarchy here. The great leaders, the ones that stood up to fight, leaders are not politicians.....Gandhi, Martin Luther King, William Wallace (just trying to tempt you)........they fight because they had been wronged, they fought because if they didnt there would be nothing.

Dont wait for all of it to disappear or be taken. There are some things in life that are worth more than money, and thank god, its times to figure out what those things are....they might seem invisible but they are there and they are worth fighting for....Those at the top know this too, FIGHT WITH YOUR SPIRT, AND TRUST IT...there are those that are with us in these times....NEVER FORGET You fight for all those who had to leave, you fight for those yet born, you fight for those that are just to pass on, may they do it with dignity as they are entitled.