David McWilliams on RTE Radio

alang184

I listened to an interview on Pat Kenny's show with David McWilliams (interview from Monday I think): http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/11/19/david-on-the-pat-kenny-show

Apart from the fact that he tends to predict the future with great accuracy, one thing that strikes me is how clear and reasonable it is what he says. I don't believe McWilliams is any kind of genius or something; he's a very talented, open thinking economist. But crucially, he has no political ties.

My feeling is that the government have had all the advise by top level economists etc., probably saying the same as McWilliams has said. So I don't believe it is wholly the government's incompetence - I believe it is largely the political constraints, or the political agenda, which has skewed the advice that they no doubt received over the last couple of years.

One of the things he said: "Brian Cowen has saved the lenders of Anglo, but the cost may well be the entire industrial strategy (12% corp. tax) that has kep this country afloat. Now that is incompetence of an outrageous manner.". But I can't help feel they chose this particular route because of some stupid 'Republican Party' political agenda.

Does anyone else feel this? Or do people believe that it is purely incompetence that led the government to make the decisions that they have made?

ei.sdraob

lets see:


praising Brian for the disastrous guarantee

DMcW wrote:

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has made a wise choice. By coming up with a unique, Irish plan — guaranteeing all deposits — instead of importing a failed solution from abroad, he has instilled confidence in the Irish financial system.

Most importantly, Irish banks are now safe. This is the single most crucial upshot of yesterday’s move.

check


pimping overseas property investment, check

later12

alang184 wrote: »

Apart from the fact that he tends to predict the future with great accuracy, one thing that strikes me is how clear and reasonable it is what he says.

Back in 2008, when Vincent Browne and many economists were speaking publicly about the inevitability of the IMF bailout and the horrific mistake of bailing out the banks, wasn't David McWilliams endorsing the idea of us quitting the single European currency?

Where does he think we would stand right now with the irish punt?

The man is a self congratulating media anorak... I care absolutely nothing for his verbal diarrhea or his media hunger. People exaggerate his economic predictions, the dog in the street knew we were in an economic bubble. it was not a David mcWilliams or a George Lee divine revelation.

People can fap away to their David McWilliams theorising all they wish. It might make a good airport read on the way out of here, because it isn't actually all that informed and it certainly isn't going to change anything.

Bob_Latchford

If i was to take a wild guess it would be criminal fraud and illegal activities @ Anglo. Covered up by Anglo & then the government. The true scale will only come to light with a new government.

So not incompetence but greed and criminal/illegal behaviour

Inquitus

David McWilliams is nothing more than a populist tool with a tenuous grasp of economics. Even a stopped clock shows the right time twice a day.

Byron85

ei.sdraob wrote: »

lets see:


praising Brian for the disastrous guarantee



check


pimping overseas property investment, check

There's more to that quote than you attribute. He was in favour of the blanket bank guarantee for a year or thereabouts so that the good could be separated from the bad as it buys you time, which was what McWilliams had suggested to Lenihan. Don't forget the EU approved of it too. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with that. McWilliams was as horrified as everyone else when the bank guarantee was extended again and the "bad guys" were mixed in with the "good guys".

alang184

ei.sdraob wrote: »

praising Brian for the disastrous guarantee

He has openly said many times that he has always supported the guarantee at that time.

later10 wrote: »

People exaggerate his economic predictions, the dog in the street knew we were in an economic bubble.

So why are there now 90,000+ unable to meet mortgage payments? If "the dog in the street" knew we were in a bubble, why did 100s of thousands buy hugely expensive property?

Anyway, the purpose of this thread was not all about McWilliams; it's supposed to ask the question of whether the government was/is incompetent, or chose to ignore the advise due to a political agenda (and I used McWilliam's ideas as a reference).

quarryman

alang184 wrote: »

Anyway, the purpose of this thread was not all about McWilliams; it's supposed to ask the question of whether the government was/is incompetent, or chose to ignore the advise due to a political agenda (and I used McWilliam's ideas as a reference).

Then why is the thread called "David McWilliams on rte"?

later12

alang184 wrote: »

So why are there now 90,000+ unable to meet mortgage payments? If "the dog in the street" knew we were in a bubble, why did 100s of thousands buy hugely expensive property?

I don't know how old you are, but I am 24 and as i have already posted, I knew what the property bubble was from about the age of 13. I have already remarked on how it was the subject of a weekly skit on RTE's Bull Island. The term "property bubble" was a commonly used expression.

I say i don't know how old you are because maybe you were a kid up until recently. I, and most people who read the papers, knew about 'the property bubble'. They knew that construction couldn't logically continue forever, that there wasn't an infinite housing demand. Give us some credit.

So why did people buy inflated prices? God knows. Stupidity, too much money, failure to plan, cynicism, don't ask me.

I'm just making the point that David McWilliams did not discover the property bubble, he just made a lot of money out of it.

lmimmfn

He's Eddie Hobbs on speed

femur61

alang184 wrote: »

Anyway, the purpose of this thread was not all about McWilliams; it's supposed to ask the question of whether the government was/is incompetent, or chose to ignore the advise due to a political agenda (and I used McWilliam's ideas as a reference).

The title of this thread is misleading. But we are used to that by now.:D

raymann

ei.sdraob wrote: »

lets see:


praising Brian for the disastrous guarantee



check


pimping overseas property investment, check

ive seen you pull these two examples out time and time again. considering his output over the last ten years hes been remarkably consistent.

his claim regarding the bank guarantee is that it was only ever intended as a temporary measure to stop a run on the banks and allow us to go to the bondholders in a strong position to negotiate. to me, in hindsight, this seems the perfect course that we should have followed.

you keep presenting this as if to say williams was the architect of cowen and lenihan disastrous bastardization of this fundamentally sound idea. why do you do that?

the overseas property article seems very out of line for him and in hindsight seems completely wrong, but is that all you can point to for all his prodigious output.

he is perceived by some as anti euro. the reality is he recognises the fundamental in built flaws in the single currency. over time he is being proved right.

irish people see joining the single currency as the move of a confident nation prepared to step up and become a valued part of the european project. just after joining we had the celtic tiger years and living standards and infrastructure improved beyond measure. its hard to not think positively about europe and the single currency in this context. i believe this couds peoples judgement and stops them recognising cold hard facts.

however the reality is that stuctural problems such as frugal germanys surplus that exports inflation and cash and the complete inability of some countries political systems to regulate themselves properly, means that in its current form it cant work. williams has always stuck to this and you have always attacked him for it.

he is being prove right and you are being proved wrong.

Absurdum

ei.sdraob wrote: »

lets see:
praising Brian for the disastrous guarantee
check

I think two of the most crucial parts of that article was the date it was written - October 1, 2008 and the title - "LENIHAN’S MASTERSTROKE HAS BOUGHT US TIME TO SORT OUT OUR OWN PROBLEMS", were not included in your post, which to me is slightly misleading. There isn't a single reference to Anglo in his article either. Wonder why that is :rolleyes: