When do you think this will all end?

wylo

Im no expert in economics so Im just wondering what are peoples opinions on a time-scale for all this to end. What I mean by 'end' is, our budget defecit is 0%, house prices have reached their trough, we experience small growth, and a steady drop in unemployment (not due to emigration).
I know we'll have the debt hanging over us the whole time, but that aside, do you think we'll ever start being a performing country again. Im not talking about a boom, just slow steady growth, where it is not a shock for someone to actually get a job. 2015? 2020? 2030?

Senna

I would say the budget's will carry a deficit for the next 20 years, but we will hopefully have a much more stable economy before that. The deficit from all this will continue as it will be painfully slow to bring down national debt.

hinault

I think we will see a gradual improvement in our economy over the next 1 - 5 years.

I think we still have some way left to fall as yet, to be honest.
And then we have to try to reduce the various levels of debt which are strnagling this economy.
We have the highest rate of persoanl debt and separately sovereign debt (bank debt and public financial debt) in the world.

jimmycrackcorm

We're somewhere in the downslope of a very sharp V shaped depression. It makes me very optimistic for the future of my kids leaving school in ten years time.

oppenheimer1

wylo wrote: »

Im no expert in economics so Im just wondering what are peoples opinions on a time-scale for all this to end. What I mean by 'end' is, our budget defecit is 0%, house prices have reached their trough, we experience small growth, and a steady drop in unemployment (not due to emigration).
I know we'll have the debt hanging over us the whole time, but that aside, do you think we'll ever start being a performing country again. Im not talking about a boom, just slow steady growth, where it is not a shock for someone to actually get a job. 2015? 2020? 2030?

I'd say we're ten years away from stability, depending of course there are no major shocks.In 17 years time the debt we have taken on today won't seem as onorous and should be roughly worth half its value (eaten by inflation).

I do think that the next ten years will be turbulent with a sharp decline in the value of the dollar (they're printing like no tomorrow over there). Indeed there may be a crisis in the dollar. Who knows maybe the euro won't be around then either.

mistermouse

Had we been told the truth by banks and government and had competent government two years ago when we needed it we would be two years well into this properly.

Now due to bad government and decisions, croke park agreement we have been led down a longer path and the next few years will be very difficult but we will be returning in a few years after much harder times.

It will then take some time for confidence to grow. Having said that the markets are playing financial games at our and the Euro's expense, they will see what they can muster now and then get bored maybe but we will be left paying the financial consequences for a few years.

But we need to get real about the likes of Anglo Irish Bank first and I am not sure that will happen that quickly. They are still in business.

ArtSmart

when the fat man stops singing

Leiva

15th September 2018 @ 11:45am

Laminations

It ends when the credits roll and we get to see the names of all the players involved. We get to see who did what and who knew who.

It ends when the public start to demand accountability both in the banks and in politics.

Either that or like the Sopranos...

hobochris

mixednuts wrote: »

15th September 2018 @ 11:45am

I would have said 15th September 2018 @ 11:48am

strathspey

wylo wrote: »

I know we'll have the debt hanging over us the whole time, but that aside, do you think we'll ever start being a performing country again. Im not talking about a boom, just slow steady growth, where it is not a shock for someone to actually get a job. 2015? 2020? 2030?

If you're out of a job, emigrate. If you are still employed in the private sector, start putting plans in place to emigrate. This is a miserable, damp and rocky outpost in the mid Atlantic. Nobody really gives a **** about it except for those making use of an artificial 12.5% corporation tax. This tax will soon end and the country will sink further into the dark waters of misery and oblivion. Do you really want to share in other people's misery? There are far sunnier and happier climes in the world! EMIGRATE!!!

BeeDI

strathspey wrote: »

If you're out of a job, emigrate. If you are still employed in the private sector, start putting plans in place to emigrate. This is a miserable, damp and rocky outpost in the mid Atlantic. Nobody really gives a **** about it except for those making use of an artificial 12.5% corporation tax. This tax will soon end and the country will sink further into the dark waters of misery and oblivion. Do you really want to share in other people's misery? There are far sunnier and happier climes in the world! EMIGRATE!!!

When all the people with your outlook, have gone, Ireland will become a sunnier and better place to be, and the place you have gone to, will get more dark and miserable by the hour.

strathspey

BeeDI wrote: »

When all the people with your outlook, have gone, Ireland will become a sunnier and better place to be, and the place you have gone to, will get more dark and miserable by the hour.

You obviously can't emigrate, negative equity is it?

Dannyboy83

Nobody can tell you the accurate truth and anyone who does is lying;
we still don't even have the figures by which to do the calculations, the government will not give them to us.
And the government are guessing.

What we can do is guess, based on what facts we have:
National Debt is 92 billion now
At least 80 will be taken from the ECB, for banks
So that is 170 billion debt just to start off with.

Our income is 31 billion and that's likely to contract before it improves again.
(High earners will emigrate in droves now - BRAIN DRAIN - particularly if taxes shoot up)

170/30= 6
So if you fired every public servant and deported every social welfare recipient in the country, and never again paid a single cent for education, health, police, anything - for the next 6 years, then it would be nearly paid off (ignoring interest)
The notion of that happening is so outlandish that I should be flogged for even suggesting it as an example.

Realistically this will continue to have an impact for 30 years and I would say the next decade at minimum will be barren.

Bear in mind, that the true sh1t has not yet hit the fan - the impending tsunami of mortgage default.

RichardAnd

I would say there will be noticeable improvements in the "real economy" within the next 2-3 years. We'll never see the celtic tiger again (and that's probably for the best) but I think that we will reach a point where it's possible for Joe Normal to get a modest job without breaking his back side to do it.

Ultimately however, no one knows for certain how long this will last. The great depression began in 1929 and it lasted for the better part of the 30s. The lesson in this is that things can go bad quickly but recovery takes time. How long this recession/depression will last, only posterity can answer.

feicim

hinault wrote: »

....And then we have to try to reduce the various levels of debt which are strnagling this economy.
We have the highest rate of persoanl debt and separately sovereign debt (bank debt and public financial debt) in the world.

Since the government refuse to default of bondholders and won't fund a mortgage bailout, the only way to reduce the debt is to pay it all off, a burden which falls on the taxpayer.

Ireland will sink ever increasingly into the mire. We are in negative feedback mode now where the economic situation has no other avenue than to get increasingly worse, cuts=job losses = debt defaults = cuts = job losses = debt defaults ad infinitum. All debt defaults will be picked up by the taxpayer in the form of cuts and increased taxes.

Unfortunately the economic problems will translate into social problems.

You are right, the economy is being strangled. My own plan is to leave Ireland as soon as I can, I'm not sticking around to rot in poverty for the sins of Irelands politicians / bankers / developers.

wilson10

I'm afraid that I would have to agree with Dannyboy's dismal outlook.

Until we can get people into real meaningful employment, get them paying tax instead of being a burden on the economy then we have no hope.

The boom in employment from the early 2000s to the late 2000s was not real. The jobs were either in the construction industry or in retail, selling stuff to builders.

The real jobs in manufacturing were in decline over the same period as industry either sourced products overseas or upped sticks and headed to eastern Europe or China for the cheap labour, as the cost of trying to do business here went through the roof.

I don't see any "real" jobs being created here any time soon.

Tim Robbins

I'd go for 2018, March 22nd.

CiaranC

We are looking at decades.

SkepticOne

If Morgan Kelly is correct, and I would tend to believe he is, then if this bailout comes in at 4 or 5% then we are looking at continued decline over several and eventual default.

steve9859

strathspey wrote: »

If you're out of a job, emigrate. If you are still employed in the private sector, start putting plans in place to emigrate. This is a miserable, damp and rocky outpost in the mid Atlantic. Nobody really gives a **** about it except for those making use of an artificial 12.5% corporation tax. This tax will soon end and the country will sink further into the dark waters of misery and oblivion. Do you really want to share in other people's misery? There are far sunnier and happier climes in the world! EMIGRATE!!!

I am probably going to leave for a while and am looking at jobs in London, but I'm not as pessimistic as strathspey. As far as I am concerned, the more people that think like Strathspey, the better. If plenty of people leave, once we have gone through the 4 - 5 years correction, then Ireland will be as cheap as chips to do business. Therefore multinationals, if they have gone, will come back, and jobs will be easier to come by as all the Strathspeys will have left. The re-pricing of Ireland will be painful, without question, but when we are out the other side Ireland will still be a good place to do business. There is that slight self correcting mechanism there, that should save us from the 'dark waters of misery and oblivion'

Tim Robbins

the_analyser wrote: »

This is being ridiculously optimistic - you should look to japan and what happened over there. They had a massive economic boom, followed by a massive property bubble and then a bust. They have endured zombie banks for 20 years, house prices are only 20-40% of what they were in 1989 and 2 decades of inflation and zero growth.

Heres a video I made detailing the failings of the irish governments bank guarantee policy and what it means for our future.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pum9c3LqjMs

This is only part one - the other parts are up under the same user.

Not a bad video. But, Japan didn't share a common currency with 16 other countries. They had more control over their fiscal policy.

miseeire

When u have the greeks telling us it's time to get our act together,then surely Armageddon is just around the corner.

Dannyboy83

steve9859 wrote: »

I am probably going to leave for a while and am looking at jobs in London, but I'm not as pessimistic as strathspey. As far as I am concerned, the more people that think like Strathspey, the better. If plenty of people leave, once we have gone through the 4 - 5 years correction, then Ireland will be as cheap as chips to do business. Therefore multinationals, if they have gone, will come back, and jobs will be easier to come by as all the Strathspeys will have left. The re-pricing of Ireland will be painful, without question, but when we are out the other side Ireland will still be a good place to do business. There is that slight self correcting mechanism there, that should save us from the 'dark waters of misery and oblivion'

That only makes sense in the case where a person is a net beneficiary of Ireland.

David McWilliams estimated that the cost of a €50 billion bank bailout was €12k per head on a total headcount of 4.5 million.

But our total debt is soon to be approaching nearly 4 times this figure (€175 billion). i.e. approx €48,000 per head on a falling headcount (emigration is currently the highest in the EU)

So from a working population of 1.8 million people, there are only 1 million who actually contribute tax.
The reason for that is because those 1 million people are sufficiently qualified to earn enough money that they are actually liable.

So now its €175billion across a 1million headcount!!!!!
I can't even really begin to calculate the real figures, but it must €48k x 4, because a working person will be paying their share and the share of the other 3 people not contributing.
So that would mean around €200k per working person who actually contributes on this island.

And then they are the same group of people who must also fund the public services and the social welfare bill.:pac:

So the question is, if you sufficiently qualified to actually pay tax in Ireland - WHY THE HELL WOULD YOU STICK AROUND HERE?

Imagine if half of those taxpayers emigrate (the bottom half since wages are not evenly distributed), so now you've only 500k people inside the tax net, meaning the liability on them has doubled to €400k per head!!

And the public expenditure is not going to fall of it's own accord as we offer among the most lucrative social welfare/public sector wages and pensions in the world.

There are some serious changes on the way in Ireland.
Gonna be bringing at least 50% of the 800k outside the net back inside it.
And some exxxtreme choppaging to commencify!

AnonymousPrime

Senna wrote: »

The deficit from all this will continue as it will be painfully slow to bring down national debt.

I heard figures of 14% interest on national debt, and that nothing else is really worthwhile for the investor

thetonynator

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

We're somewhere in the downslope of a very sharp V shaped depression. It makes me very optimistic for the future of my kids leaving school in ten years time.

The thing about a v is that it sharply turns up again. This doesnt. Its more like an L.

L <<< and we are currently about halfway down and free falling . . .then we will crash and hit rock bottom about next year before staying there for a very long time . . .

wylo

Depressing replies, I cant even afford to emigrate, and ive lived abroad before , dunno if id want to again, enjoyed it and all but i really did miss home.

thetonynator

The last great depression took a world war to draw us out of it - what will it take this time? :rolleyes:

kuntboy

wylo wrote: »

Depressing replies, I cant even afford to emigrate

That's the problem, when welfare plummets huge numbers will be stuck here unable to afford to leave, so gtfo now while the goin's good.

RichardAnd

thetonynator wrote: »

The last great depression took a world war to draw us out of it - what will it take this time? :rolleyes:

Perhaps another world war? No one should believe for an instant that it won't happen again. Fashion might change, humans don't.

zootroid

We will never come close to the celtic tiger again. But when the country does come out of recession, and unemployment eases, we will still be left with a huge tax bill to pay for the bank bailout

Then there's the human cost, people unemployed for years, people left with negative equity, people unable to buy a home due to being unemployed for years and unable to save a deposit etc