the politics of a bailout

ei.sdraob

Not to go off-topic in a parallel thread and after comments from Scofflaw decided to start separate discussion on this hilarious "good cop/bad cop a go on have a bailout" situation the country is in.

FF are claiming that a bailout is being forced on them, and the state propaganda machine called RTE is in full spin blaming europe for wanting to help us. I find the whole thing incredible and weird at same time.

Here is my take on the events:

* the EU/IMF are have serious concerns about are banks, and they are right as some of them like Anglo were criminal gambling operations. And no one knows how bad things can get, there is no bottom in sight with these banks.
* the EUrozone are ****ting themselves now that they realize that our native gombeens have the power to bring down one of the largest world currencies, it was never supposed to end up this way.
* Europeans are unhappy about giving us money, memories of Greece are still fresh, the media in Germany has been talking about us for weeks while we are distracted by local parish pump politics in Donegal (I hope the Germans dont watch the last Frontline )
* the government are still lying to everyone and have lost all credibility further adding to our instability, the whole system is based on confidence and credibility
* the same government is claiming they dont want to show their hand in their negotiations, the negotiation that they are not having of course
* this is the same government that has negotiated the likes of NAMA and Anglo onto the shoulders of Irish people.
* The banks and the state are one (thank you FF), claiming that the state doesnt need a bailout and waving a non-existent 4 year plan and budget that most likely will never be implemented in time due to the severity of the cuts/taxes is a farcical



Am I the only one seriously worried that yet again FF will make a bad situation even worse?
At every turn so far of all the worst possible choice they took the worst path, the path of least resistance, as long as it allowed them to remain in power.

Citizen_Cutback

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Am I the only one seriously worried that yet again FF will make a bad situation even worse?
At every turn so far of all the worst possible choice they took the worst path, the path of least resistance, as long as it allowed them to remain in power.

It is the manifestation of prevarication brought about by the inherent laziness of Cowan.

Scofflaw

To be honest, about the worst thing the government could do at this point is to try and stave off a bailout - for their own political benefit - until we actually need it, because by that time those who can lend to us will impose conditions far beyond what would currently be imposed. If they hold out until then, we'll be the ones in a hurry.

To clarify earlier remarks, we're in a position where we will barring miracles need a bailout sometime in the near future, but not right now. Other EU countries, on the other hand, are in a position where they need us to have a bailout right now - and for that reason, and the reason given above, now is the best time to take one. However, our only negotiating strength is precisely the fact that we don't need the bailout quite as quickly as people need us to take it.

Fortunately, I don't think Fianna Fáil are in a position to make things significantly worse, although their failure to take the bailout immediately is probably annoying some of the other Member States, not to mention the ECB, all of whom would, it appears, like the problem dealt with as soon as possible. However, taking the bailout imediately might well involve more onerous conditions than can be bought with some resistance.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Drumpot

Scofflaw, I take it as a serious insult that you use the phrase "bailout".

Please correct your use of term or I will report you. .

It is a "loan" :):(:mad:

SkepticOne

A big problem (and it seems to be believed by some on this forum) is the view, no doubt encouraged by the government, that all this bailout business is being forced on Ireland by the EU.

The problem with this is that it will give the trade unionists ammunition in their opposition to the inevitable cuts. Why, they will ask, didn't the government put up more resistance to the bailout and the associated conditions if the country wasn't in dire need of assistance?

sv650

I wonder at what interest rate we will be borrowing this money? The 1% ECB rate or the 1.75% overnight rate perhaps? Some other higher rate?

Drumpot

sv650 wrote: »

I wonder at what interest rate we will be borrowing this money? The 1% ECB rate or the 1.75% overnight rate perhaps? Some other higher rate?

5% was mooted . .

Drumpot

SkepticOne wrote: »

A big problem (and it seems to be believed by some on this forum) is the view, no doubt encouraged by the government, that all this bailout business is being forced on Ireland by the EU.

The problem with this is that it will give the trade unionists ammunition in their opposition to the inevitable cuts. Why, they will ask, didn't the government put up more resistance to the bailout and the associated conditions if the country wasn't in dire need of assistance?

I actually think on one level a bailout and IMF intervention will completely screw up the unions and make cuts easier to implement. Thats the last thing they want as they can publically beat up an unpopular government, but nobody will listen to them if they lambast an outside body, technically saving us from economic meltdown. The IMF dont need union members votes and have no axe to grind with anybody in society.

ei.sdraob

Another possibility is that the government dont want the EU/IMF to look out the books (they could be busy shredding them now Enron style), god knows what dead skeletons they might find in the closets over at Anglo.

Bob_Latchford

For me this is just the Germans being efficient in their handling of risk. They see the Irish passing a stress test and months later having capitalisation problems.

of course they are going to wonder what is going on and fear of exposure to unknown. They want to know the full story and will lend money if its needed.

The friction comes from Irish Government behaving like bad gamblers denying their losses

voxpop

Is this not a mirror of the banks

Bank: No we dont need a bailout, we have plenty of cash
Gov: Ok but here is a bailout anyway
Bank: Eh, have you got any more?


This gov are just trying to spin everything to be able to blame someone else for their problems - sure its not Ireland's problem, its a world-wide recession,then we didnt mismanage the economy, it was the banks that caused the problem, now we dont need a bailout its the nasty Eu imposing it on us.
They keep going on an on about how FF has done and is doing the right thing, that its outside forces that a conspiring against Ireland - load of rubbish.